If you’re still alive in your Survivor pools, take a moment to celebrate your accomplishment.
Yes, it’s been less than a month of NFL football. We have many games to play and a long way to go, but given the mayhem that has injected itself into the first three weeks of the NFL season, surviving feels like an achievement at this point.
Did you take Kansas City to beat Indianapolis last week? You’re not alone.
If you didn’t, well, it’s time to look forward, not backward. To stay alive, we must carve out the next move. That is precisely the goal today.
All NFL Week 4 odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Sept. 28.
2022 NFL Survivor Pick record: 3-3
Survivor Week 4 Grid
Survivor Week 4 Best Picks
1. Green Bay Packers vs. New England Patriots
With Patriots QB Mac Jones on the shelf with a bum ankle, this is the correct, obvious choice.
Beyond the loss of its starting quarterback, New England allowed Baltimore to score 37 points at home on Sunday. No, Aaron Rodgers won’t be able to beat the Pats in the ways Lamar Jackson did, but there’s plenty of concern about New England. And that was before Jones went down.
Green Bay, meanwhile, delivered a solid (ugly) win over Tampa Bay. The 14-12 score wasn’t jaw-dropping, but the Packers defense played well.
They should do enough in this game to lift Green Bay to a cozy win.
2. Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks
Yes, this looks strange, and Detroit is 1-2, but the Lions are legit. Their two losses were to the Eagles and the Vikings, and they came by a combined seven points (one could argue that Sunday’s game against Minnesota should have been a win).
Either way, this team is playing well. The offense has been explosive and the ingredients are in place for continued success. Against Seattle, a team undergoing its own identity makeover, the time feels right to use Detroit when you can.
Week 4 Survivor Sleeper Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets
There won’t be many times that Pittsburgh will be in play for Survivor pools this year, although this certainly could be one of those moments.
The Jets will welcome back QB Zach Wilson, which could offer mixed results. He’s returning from a knee injury on the road against a solid pass rush.
The Steelers, like the Jets, are 1-2, but they’ve played two games on the road, and this is a much easier spot overall. QB Mitch Trubisky hasn’t played awful. He also hasn’t been great. Against a Jets defense that has issues with penalties and mistakes, he should be good enough.
Survivor Pick to Save for Future Weeks
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
This is suddenly a wildly intriguing game.
Jalen Hurts has taken off and Trevor Lawrence appears to be doing the same. They’re both good enough for me to back away from this one slowly.
For some, Philly will be tempting. The Eagles look like a complete team, and they should be able to beat Jacksonville at home. But I can’t help but admire how well the Jags have played, beating the Colts and Chargers in consecutive games.
There will be plenty of time to use the Eagles if you haven’t already. This is one worth watching.
Chalk Team That Could Lose
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This week’s Sunday Night Football matchup features two teams still picking up the pieces after disappointing performances in Week 3. The Chiefs lost to the Colts, as mentioned above. The Bucs lost to the Packers, failing to do much of anything on offense.
Despite scoring only 12 points, QB Tom Brady had a decent game. And playing at home against the Chiefs, Brady is still a good bet to produce.
For the Chiefs, last week was a setback. And although they are favored in this game, that road tumble is certainly worth watching.
This is not a time to use Kansas City, especially if you survived last week without them. Live to fight (and pick) another day.