NFL Survivor Picks Week 4

If you’ve made it this far in your NFL survivor pool, you probably don’t need my help.

However, if you’re still alive in your survivor pool or trying your luck again in a second-chance contest, I’ll try to help you navigate the waters of this chaotic season.

Let’s dive into my NFL Week 4 survivor picks and eliminator grid.

NFL Week 4 Survivor Picks

New York Jets vs Denver Broncos

My favorite Week 4 survivor pick is the New York Jets. I’ve seen enough from Aaron Rodgers through three weeks to trust this offense to put up points, and the defense has rebounded since its Week 1 no-show against the 49ers.

The situational spot also favors New York, as the Jets have had a mini-bye following their Week 3 win over the Patriots on Thursday Night Football. Meanwhile, the Broncos will play their second straight 1 p.m. East Coast contest after defeating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week.

Sean Payton’s decision to set up shop in West Virginia this week will help mitigate some of the weariness from travel, but his team doesn’t have the talent that New York does. Look for this Jets defense to antagonize rookie Bo Nix in what should be a comfortable home win for Robert Saleh’s crew.

Back the Jets to win outright as one of your NFL best bets today.

San Francisco 49ers vs New England Patriots

I liked the 49ers as a survivor pick last week, and that went poorly as they blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead against the Rams. However, San Francisco should get back on track Sunday as 10-point favorites against the New England Patriots.

Kyle Shanahan’s squad still has injury concerns, as Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel remain out, but George Kittle could return to give the offense a boost.

• Find out which players to target this week with our top NFL prop bets.

More importantly, New England doesn’t offer much of a threat as long as you can stop the run. The Patriots’ offensive line is one of the worst in the league, so the Niners should be able to control the game defensively, even without Javon Hargrave.

There isn’t an easier non-divisional home game on San Francisco’s schedule, and at 1-2, you should get a pretty desperate effort from the hosts here.

NFL Week 4 Survivor Grid

NFL Week 4 Survivor Sleeper Pick

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants

I don’t like taking road teams or divisional games and tend to avoid Thursday Night Football in survivor, but you can throw out those rules for the Cowboys when they’re taking on the Giants.

Dallas has won 13 of the previous 14 games against its NFC East rival, including each of the last six. Dak Prescott and Co. desperately need a get-right game after dropping the last two against the Saints and Ravens, and a trip to MetLife Stadium should do the trick.

• Get ready for this primetime showdown with our Thursday Night Football predictions.

The Cowboys won 40-0 in this building last year and outscored the Giants 89-17 across two games last season. New York is coming off a 21-15 road win against the Cleveland Browns, a mutual opponent that Dallas smoked 33-17 in Week 1.

Prescott should have a ton of success against a Giants secondary that is dealing with injuries and wasn’t all that talented to begin with. Expect another lopsided Dallas win on Thursday night.

NFL Week 4 Survivor Team to Save

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers

I understand the temptation to take the Chiefs on Sunday against the Chargers, who are expected to be without one of their best players on both sides of the ball, QB Justin Herbert (ankle) and S Derwin James (suspension).

However, after watching the 49ers drop a divisional road game as similarly sizable favorites last week, I’m staying away.

• Wager on this game with our NFL parlay picks.

The Chiefs have some notable absences on offense and haven’t hit the heights so far this season. Sure, they’re 3-0 and are likely to win this game. But it also wouldn’t shock me if they laid an egg against a team they don’t expect much of a fight from.

Kansas City has home spots against the Buccaneers, Broncos, and Raiders coming up, so I’d wait for one of those.

Use our NFL Eliminator tips to place bets with the top NFL odds:

NFL Week 4 Survivor Chalk Team That Could Lose

Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers

If you haven’t been burned by the Bengals, can you really trust them now?

Cincinnati is 0-3 after its Monday night home loss to Washington and now heads to Carolina, who looked rejuvenated last week with former Bengal Andy Dalton under center.

• See who The Game Day’s experts like this week in our NFL picks against the spread.

I realize the Panthers have been a team to fade in survivor for the last year-plus, but I wouldn’t be tempting fate here.

The Bengals have a last-place schedule, which includes future home dates with the Broncos and Raiders. If Joe Burrow and Co. return to form like we expect them to, you can use them at that point.

But for now, this porous Cincy defense scares me, even against the lowly Panthers.

What Is An NFL Survivor Pool?

The popularity of the NFL season gives users a plethora of options for fantasy games and picks pools. Survivor pools are one of the most popular to spawn from the NFL season, and millions of football fans participate in knockout-style games each season.

Historically, survivor pools are when a group of people each choose one team per week as their best pick to win their matchup. If that team prevails, the user advances to the next week, but if the team picked loses, the player is out.

Some of the best sportsbooks may have survivor contests, and there are different variations. Some variations include spreads used for NFL betting and second-chance picks, but in a traditional knockout pool, you stay alive as long as your team wins.

The last person standing wins the entire pool. If multiple people end up going out in the final week, they usually split the final pot.

If you are about to play in an NFL survivor pool for the first time but aren’t sure what to expect, here is a glimpse into the proceedings.

How To Play NFL Eliminator Pools

Only Pick One Team Each Week

Simply pick one team to win each week. As long as that team finishes victorious in the game you pick, you stay alive.

Once That Team is Picked, It’s Done

You may not pick a team more than once in a single season, which means you must be cautious when determining which team you pick each week.

If Your Pick Loses, You’re Out

Choose wisely, because if the team you select loses, you’re out of the pool.

Some survivor pools offer second-chance opportunities — especially if the entire pool is out early in the NFL season — but you can’t always count on that happening.

Survivor Grid 2024

How To Use a Survivor Picks Grid

A survivor picks grid is an invaluable resource aimed at giving users an edge when making picks in a survivor pool.

Survivor picks grids will give users criteria, including the team’s win probability, the percentage of people in survivor pools picking that team, and sort the efficiency rating of picking each team each week.

Survivor Pool Tips

Play The Long Game

Map out a full-season action plan before Week 1. The last thing you want is to be stuck with a one-win team facing off against the reigning Super Bowl champions in Week 5 because you didn’t scheme accordingly.

Be Flexible

Be sure to reassess your plan after each week. If a team you thought was going to be good turns out to be a doormat, be prepared to pivot.

Go Against The Grain

You don’t want to make the same picks as everybody else — that’s where the percentage of picks tool comes in handy. If the majority of your pool is choosing Minnesota, and you’re taking Denver, you’d be covered when the Vikings somehow end up getting upset.

By picking a less obvious team to win each week, you’re giving yourself a better chance to ultimately win the entire pool.

NFL odds often offer reliable data that can be used to help you figure out which games to target.

Have Fun

Upsets happen. That’s part of what makes survivor pools enjoyable. The NFL is where surefire predictions go to die.

Have fun, do your homework, make the best pick possible, and leave the result to fate.