AL MVP Odds & Predictions 2022 | American League MVP Award Futures Bets

Frank AmmiranteFantasy Sports & Betting Writer
Posted: Aug 30, 2022Last updated: Aug 30, 2022

When projecting the AL MVP winner, you need to consider Wins Above Replacement (WAR). This is a metric that accounts for both offensive and defensive contributions, determining an overall value for a player.

Last season’s winner, Shohei Ohtani, put up 8.1 fWAR (per FanGraphs), so we’ll use that number as a benchmark to help forecast this year’s MVP race. With that in mind, let’s dive in with our 2022 AL MVP predictions and best bets.

AL MVP Odds 2022

AL MVP MLB betting odds are current as of Tuesday, Aug. 30 and courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

  • Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees (-900) 
  • Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP, Los Angeles Angels (+600) 
  • Yordan Alvarez, OF, Houston Astros (+8000)
  • Jose Ramirez, 3B, Cleveland Guardians (+8000) 
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Toronto Blue Jays (+25000)
  • Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox (+25000) 

Aaron Judge continues to dominate the AL MVP race, jumping from (-700) to (-900) since our last update on August 22. Judge just hit his 50th home run before the month of September.

Shohei Ohtani continues to be the only threat here, with his odds moving from (+500) to (+600) since the last update. He would need an absolutely epic finish to the season in order to get back into legitimate contention.

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While Yordan Alvarez and Jose Ramirez are the third and fourth-ranked candidates here, they have virtually no chance, which is reflected in their (+8000) odds.

AL MVP Prediction 2022

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (-900)

Judge carries a .294/.396/.661 slash with 50 homers in only 551 plate appearances. He leads MLB with 8.1 fWAR, helping the New York Yankees control the AL East with a 78-51 record.

This is why the odds are so inflated for Judge. He’s been absolutely dominant for an elite Yankees team. Realistically, the only scenario where he doesn’t win is if he goes on a major cold streak or suffers a season-ending injury.

Look for Judge to take home AL MVP, making this our MLB bet of the day.

AL MVP Contenders 2022

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels (+600)

Ohtani has really excelled as a pitcher this season, posting a 2.67 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP with a terrific strikeout rate (12.38 K/9). The dynamic dual-threat has been worth 4.0 fWAR on the mound, bringing his total value to 7.1 fWAR.

The problem here is that it’s still not enough to top Judge, especially with the Angels being such a poor team this season. However, Ohtani is still the top challenger here. If he can catch fire in the remaining month, we could see the odds shift once more.

See the Latest MLB Futures Odds and Picks

AL MVP Sleepers 2022

Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros (+8000)

Alvarez has really taken off this season, batting .294/.398/.597 with 31 homers in only 452 plate appearances. He’s been the best hitter on an elite Astros team, despite missing 20 games due to injury.

In a regular year, Alvarez would be firmly in the mix for this award, but it’s going to be virtually impossible here. With only 4.8 fWAR, he’ll need to go on a major power binge to catch Judge.

However, the 80:1 odds do look enticing, so you could perhaps sprinkle a bit in the hopes that Alvarez catches fire.

Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (+8000)

Ramirez has been worth 5.4 fWAR while putting up an impressive 150 wRC+. The Guardians’ star third baseman has carried them toward playoff contention, making him a sleeper candidate for this award.

We’ve seen Ramirez go on epic hot streaks in the past, so we can’t put it past him to thrust himself back in contention. However, it’s going to be highly unlikely, and the (+8000) odds reflect that.


Frank Ammirante

Before joining The Game Day, Frank spent three years in the fantasy sports and betting industry, writing for websites like RotoBaller and 4for4football. Frank is an active member of the fantasy baseball and fantasy football community, participating in high-stakes leagues like NFBC/NFFC as well as industry competitions like Scott Fish Bowl, RazzBowl, and TGFBI. Frank is a member of the FSWA and IBWAA. Give him a shout to talk fantasy sports and sports betting.

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