NL Odds & Predictions 2022 | National League Pennant & Division Winner Futures Bets
@BoogieDownPicksLast year’s National League playoffs demonstrated the randomness of baseball’s postseason. The two teams with the most regular-season wins in baseball — the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers — lost in the NLDS and NLCS, respectively.
Meanwhile, the playoff team with the fewest regular-season wins — the Atlanta Braves — went all the way and won the World Series. Go figure.
Predicting the NL pennant winner won’t be any easier this year, especially with MLB’s new postseason format expanding the playoff field from five teams to six in each league. That means another team gets to crash the party and potentially win the pennant, making this exercise even more difficult.
Meanwhile for NL divisions … In 2021, the Braves, Brewers, and Giants won their respective divisions in the National League.
Other than the Brewers – who are favored to win the NL Central again – the NL division champions are likely to be different this season. The Dodgers are heavy favorites to win the NL West, while the Mets and potentially the Phillies could challenge the Braves for the NL East.
- To determine the best MLB Futures Bets, including the best NL Pennant Futures Bets and NL Division Futures Bets below, I updated my MLB model and then simulated the season 25,000 times.
- I then compare my projected outcomes against the breakeven price of the odds being offered.
Below, read to find out my 2022 NL Pennant and NL division winner best bets and predictions.
All NL Division winner betting odds are current as of March 27, 2022, from Caesars Sportsbook.
NL Pennant Winner Odds
NL Pennant winner MLB betting odds are current as of March 30, 2022, from Caesars Sportsbook.
- Los Angeles Dodgers (+240)
- New York Mets (+500)
- Atlanta Braves (+550)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+750)
- San Diego Padres (+800)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+1300)
- San Francisco Giants (+1300)
- Philadelphia Phillies (+1500)
- Miami Marlins (+3500)
- Chicago Cubs (+5000)
- Cincinnati Reds (+6000)
- Washington Nationals (+7500)
- Colorado Rockies (+7500)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+12500)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+12500)
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NL Pennant Winner Simulation
| Team | Pennant Win % | Breakeven Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 23.0% | +334 |
| New York Mets | 15.5% | +547 |
| San Diego Padres | 14.5% | +591 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 13.1% | +665 |
| Atlanta Braves | 12.1% | +729 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 8.8% | +1033 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 3.2% | +2998 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 2.9% | +3325 |
| San Francisco Giants | 2.1% | +4626 |
| Miami Marlins | 1.5% | +6410 |
| Washington Nationals | 0.8% | +11692 |
| Colorado Rockies | 0.7% | +13414 |
| Chicago Cubs | 0.7% | +13866 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.7% | +15237 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.3% | +31546 |
NL Pennant Winner Prediction 2022
Los Angeles Dodgers — but you should avoid betting on them
The Dodgers are the best team in the National League, and probably the best team in all of baseball. They win the pennant in 22.7% of my simulations, which is the most of any NL team.
So why am I avoiding them in the futures market?
At (+250) at BetMGM and BetRivers, Los Angeles has breakeven odds of 28.6%. That means if you bet $100 on the Dodgers winning the pennant, you’d have an expected value of -$20.55.You are better off using that money to buy pizza than losing the $20.55 on average from betting on LA.
As good as the Dodgers are, they’re actually one of the worst bets you could make because of the price.
NL Pennant Winner Contenders 2022
Milwaukee Brewers (+750) at Caesars
The Brewers make the playoffs in 75.6% of my simulations and win the NL Central in 66.9% of my simulations. Based on their weak schedule, Milwaukee is a No. 1 or No. 2 seed that earns a first-round playoff bye in 26.6% of my projections.
If the Brewers secure a first-round bye, they must win only seven games to advance to the World Series. If they don’t get the bye, they are a No. 3 or No. 4 seed in 14.2% of my simulations, which would give them home-field advantage in all three of their potential first-round games.
With Milwaukee’s strong pitching, they are dangerous in the likely scenario that they make the playoffs again.
prop bet
+750
Brewers To Win 2022 NL Pennant
Bet $20, Payout $170
San Diego Padres (+950) at Betway
Outside of the Dodgers and the Mets, the Padres won the NL Pennant the most times in my 25,000 simulations. With San Diego making the World Series in 14.5% of my simulations, I believe that they should be priced at (+600) rather than (+950).
The Padres will probably be overshadowed by the Dodgers during the regular season again, but in the postseason they are likely to be favored against most of their potential opponents. If Fernando Tatis Jr. stays healthy, their pennant odds will shorten considerably by the time we reach October.
Grab them now while they still have value.
prop bet
+950
Padres To Win 2022 NL Pennant
Bet $20, Payout $210
NL Pennant Winner Sleepers 2022
Philadelphia Phillies (+1600) at BetMGM
The Phillies look like a .500 team and are going to have a tough time winning the division over the Braves and Mets. With an expanded postseason, however, Philadelphia ould cause heartburn for other teams as a No. 5 or No. 6 seed.
With a shortened rotation led by Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, the Phillies are dangerous even on the road. Given all the talent on their roster, the Phillies are a longshot worth taking a flier on at (+1600).
prop bet
+1600
Phillies To Win 2022 NL Pennant
Bet $20, Payout $340
Cincinnati Reds (+6000) at Caesars
Cincinnati is a real longshot this year, but that’s what you get when you bet a team at (+6000) to win a future.
A lot has to go right for the Reds in order to win the pennant. They first must make the playoffs, which only happened in 31.6% of my simulations. Additionally, one of their pitchers besides Luis Castillo has to have an amazing year to compensate for their lack of pitching depth.
On the bright side, Cincinnati plays in a weak division and has decent hitting, so there’s a chance. I even put a small wager on them to win the World Series at (+20000), which will pay enough for a down payment on a house in certain parts of the country if they do go all the way.
prop bet
+6000
Reds To Win 2022 NL Pennant
Bet $20, Payout $1220
See the latest MLB futures odds and picks
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- AL Pennant & Division Predictions & Odds
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NL East Winner Odds 2022
- New York Mets (+140)
- Atlanta Braves (+145)
- Philadelphia Phillies (+450)
- Miami Marlins (+1400)
- Washington Nationals (+4500)
NL East Winner Simulation
| NL East | Division Win % | Breakeven Odds |
|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 45.1% | +122 |
| Atlanta Braves | 31.6% | +217 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 19.5% | +412 |
| Miami Marlins | 2.6% | +3711 |
| Washington Nationals | 1.1% | +8765 |
NL East Winner Prediction 2022
New York Mets (+155) at Betway
Every year I bet on the Mets and end up being disappointed. I’m betting on them again this year, however, because logically they should be favored to win the NL East.
The Braves won the NL East and World Series last year despite winning just 88 games during the regular season. While they adequately replaced Freddie Freeman at first base with Matt Olson this offseason, their starting rotation still lacks depth beyond Charlie Morton and Max Fried.
After underperforming last year, New York improved significantly this offseason. The Mets landed Max Scherzer in free agency, giving them another Cy Young contender to pair with Jacob deGrom.
They also bolstered their offense by adding Mark Canha, Starling Marte, and Eduardo Escobar to a lineup already featuring Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, and Brandon Nimmo.
With New York winning the NL East in 44.8% of my simulations, they are a great bet here at (+155) odds (39.2% breakeven odds).
prop bet
+155
Mets To Win 2022 NL East
Bet $20, Payout $51
NL East Winner Contenders 2022
Philadelphia Phillies (+500) at FOX Bet
Most sportsbooks have given Philadelphia (+450) odds to win the NL East, which is a borderline good bet in my opinion. FOX Bet has them at (+500), though, which is a price worth taking given their 19.4% chance of winning the division according to my model.
The Phillies have a strong starting rotation led by Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. While the bullpen is weak, that won’t matter as much if the starters are consistently pitching deep into games.
Supporting Philadelphia’s pitching is a potent lineup led by the reigning NL MVP in Bryce Harper. He’ll have plenty of help in the form of Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins, and Jean Segura.
Based on the Phillies’ lineup and starting pitching, my model projects them to win 86.8 games. With a little bit of luck, they could easily win 90+ games and the division.
prop bet
+500
Phillies To Win 2022 NL East
Bet $20, Payout $120
NL Central Winner Odds 2022
- Milwaukee Brewers (-130)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+190)
- Chicago Cubs (+1000)
- Cincinnati Reds (+1200)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+6000)
NL Central Winner Simulation
| NL Central | Division Win % | Breakeven Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 66.3% | -197 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 14.6% | +584 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 13.9% | +622 |
| Chicago Cubs | 3.4% | +2831 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 1.8% | +5531 |
NL Central Winner Prediction 2022
Milwaukee Brewers (-130) at Caesars
The Brewers were clearly the best team in the NL Central last year. Not only did they finish five games ahead of the Cardinals in the actual standings, but their Pythagorean record was also eight games better.
Both teams are returning virtually the same rosters this year, so I believe we’ll see the same result in the standings with the Brewers again finishing first.
Milwaukee’s strength is their pitching and fielding, as my model projects them to allow the second-fewest runs per game (4.36) in the NL this season.
With their elite rotation, bullpen, and defense, the Brewers are going to be incredibly tough to score runs against. Their (-130) odds are a steal as they win the NL Central in 68.6% of my simulations, making this my MLB bet of the day.
prop bet
-130
Brewers To Win 2022 NL Central
Bet $20, Payout $35
NL Central Winner Contenders 2022
Cincinnati Reds (+1200) at Caesars
If the Brewers and Cardinals fail to meet expectations, the Reds are next in line to win the NL Central. Cincinnati has the fortune of playing in a weak division, so they could finish high if they do well against their competition, especially against rebuilding teams like the Cubs and Pirates.
At (+1200), the Reds could cash in as a longshot to win the NL Central. My model has them winning 79.6 games, which puts them within striking distance of the Brewers and Cardinals.
Even though Cincinnati traded away Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker to the Mariners this offseason, their outfield should be better this season with Tommy Pham and Shogo Akiyama. Suarez and Winker have both probably peaked offensively, so the Reds likely cut them loose at the right time.
In a soft division with a decent lineup, Cincinnati is a worthy longshot at 12/1 odds.
prop bet
+1200
Reds To Win 2022 NL Central
Bet $20, Payout $260
NL West Winner Odds 2022
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-210)
- San Diego Padres (+320)
- San Francisco Giants (+525)
- Colorado Rockies (+7500)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+15000)
NL West Winner Simulation
| NL West | Division Win % | Breakeven Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 63.8% | -177 |
| San Diego Padres | 31.9% | +214 |
| San Francisco Giants | 3.0% | +3269 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.7% | +14606 |
| Colorado Rockies | 0.7% | +15144 |
NL West Winner Prediction 2022
San Diego Padres (+325) at BetRivers
The Dodgers are obviously the best team in the NL West, winning the division in 63.6% of my simulations. The problem is that everyone knows this, and at (-210) they are a bad bet to win.
There is only one team worth a bet to win the NL West, and that’s the Padres.
Their lineup is deep and balanced, as eight starters are projected to perform average or better offensively. Even with Tatis Jr. out to start the season, San Diego should have little trouble scoring runs.
The Padres also have a strong starting rotation led by Blake Snell and Yu Darvish, so pitching shouldn’t be too much of a problem for them, either.
LA is always a threat to win the division, but San Diego has a 32% chance according to my simulations and is worth taking at (+325).
prop bet
+325
Padres To Win 2022 NL West
Bet $20, Payout $85
