Last year’s National League playoffs demonstrated the randomness of baseball’s postseason. The two teams with the most regular-season wins in baseball — the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers — lost in the NLDS and NLCS, respectively.
Meanwhile, the playoff team with the fewest regular-season wins — the Atlanta Braves — went all the way and won the World Series. Go figure.
Predicting the NL pennant winner won’t be any easier this year, especially with MLB’s new postseason format expanding the playoffs from five teams to six in each league. That means another team can crash the party and potentially win the pennant, making this exercise even more difficult.
Currently, the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are good NL Pennant bets based on my 25,000 simulations of the remainder of the 2022 season, but much can change. The Cardinals are close to being a good Pennant bet, but I want to see how they finish the season.
For NL divisional bets, only the NL East is up for grabs. The NL West and NL Central barring any disaster, will be won by the Dodgers and Cardinals.
- To determine the best MLB Futures Bets, including the best NL Pennant Futures Bets and NL Division Futures Bets below, I updated my MLB model and simulated the remaining 2022 season schedule 25,000 times.
- I then compare my projected outcomes against the breakeven price of the odds being offered.
Below, read to find out my 2022 NL Pennant and NL division winner best bets and predictions.
All NL Division winner betting odds are current as of Sept. 9 from Caesars Sportsbook.
NL Pennant Winner Odds
- Los Angeles Dodgers (+150)
- New York Mets (+240)
- Atlanta Braves (+350)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+900)
- San Diego Padres (+1300)
- Philadelphia Phillies (+1600)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+3000)
- San Francisco Giants (+50000)
- Miami Marlins (+250000)
- Chicago Cubs (+250000)
- Cincinnati Reds (+250000)
- Colorado Rockies (+250000)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+250000)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+250000)
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NL Pennant Winner Simulation
|Team||Pennant %||Pennant Odds|
|New York Mets||30.90%||223|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||27.00%||271|
|St. Louis Cardinals||10.30%||872|
|San Diego Padres||7.40%||1243|
NL Pennant Winner Prediction 2022
New York Mets (+310) at FanDuel Sportsbook
There are two top contenders in the National League to win the pennant, the Dodgers and Mets. However, my model differs from most other models because I view the Mets as having a better chance of winning the pennant than the Dodgers.
Currently, the Dodgers and Mets win the NL in 60% of my simulations, but at +165, the Dodgers are a bad bet, as they should be +278. What will significantly affect the NL Pennant odds is over the playoff seeding.
In 99.3% of my simulations, the Dodgers are the 1-seed in the National League. On the other hand, the Amazing Mets are the 2-seed in 80.5% of my simulations.
The key for the Mets getting the 2-seed and a 1st-round playoff BYE is pending off a feisty Atlanta Braves team. Currently, the Metropolitans have a half-game lead in the standings, but based on their remaining schedule, I project them to finish the season two games ahead of the Braves in the standings.
The Mets become a stronger team in the playoffs, as they are likely to benefit from a shortened playoff rotation as they will have Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. Additionally, Scherzer and deGrom are complemented by Chris Bassitt and Carlos Carrasco, who are quietly having great seasons.
At +310, the Mets are a good bet to win the National League Pennant as our MLB bet of the day.
NL Pennant Winner Sleepers 2022
Philadelphia Phillies (+1800) at BetRivers Sportsbook
If the Phillies win the pennant, their payoff of 18-1 is as fattening to your wallet as a Philly Cheesesteak is to your belly.
Even though the Phillies are in third place in the NL East, they make the playoffs in 91.7% of my simulations. This gives them a fighting chance in this year’s new playoff format.
Seeds 3 and 4 play all first-round playoff games at home. The issue with Philly is that they are a 5 or 6-seed in 91.7% of my simulations. Even with the Phillies having a tough road to the pennant, they have a reasonable chance of sneaking through the playoffs.
With OF Bryce Harper, OF Kyle Schwarber, SP Aaron Nola, and SP Zach Wheeler, they have a chance to spoil the Dodgers or Mets’ chances this October.
See the latest MLB futures odds and picks
- World Series Predictions & Odds
- AL Pennant & Division Predictions & Odds
- AL MVP Predictions & Odds
- AL Cy Young Predictions & Odds
- AL Rookie of the Year Predictions & Odds
- NL MVP Predictions & Odds
- NL Cy Young Predictions & Odds
- NL Rookie of the Year Predictions & Odds
NL East Winner Odds 2022
- New York Mets (-190)
- Atlanta Braves (+160)
- Philadelphia Phillies (+50000)
NL East Winner Simulation
|Team||Division Win %||Breakeven Odds|
|New York Mets||81.2%||-432|
NL East Winner Prediction 2022
New York Mets (-180) at FanDuel Sportsbook
If I love the Mets to win the pennant, why wouldn’t I like them to win the NL East?
They are only half a game ahead of a surging Braves team, but they have the best talent. Additionally, they shouldn’t have trouble fending off their remaining opponents as I project the Mets to finish two games ahead of the Braves.
At -180, the price is chalky, but it should be even chalkier. I would bet the Mets up to -250.