With roughly two-thirds of the MLB season in the books and the trade deadline behind us, the World Series picture is starting to get clearer.
Half of the divisional races are essentially over, as the Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, and New York Yankees will win their divisions unless hell freezes over.
Not surprisingly, those are the three teams with the best odds of winning the World Series. There are other teams in the mix as well, however, that my model has identified.
- To determine the best MLB Futures Bets, including the best World Series Futures Bets below, I updated my MLB model and then simulated the rest of the season 25,000 times.
- I then compare my projected outcomes against the breakeven price of the odds being offered.
Let’s take a spin through the data to see which teams we should wager on for our World Series best bets.
World Series Betting Odds 2022
What are the 2022 World Series lines for all 30 MLB teams?
Here are the full World Series MLB betting odds from Caesars Sportsbook as of Aug. 5, 2022.
- New York Yankees (+360)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (+360)
- Houston Astros (+430)
- New York Mets (+650)
- San Diego Padres (+1000)
- Atlanta Braves (+1100)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+1500)
- Seattle Mariners (+3500)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+3500)
- Chicago White Sox (+4000)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+4000)
- Tampa Bay Rays (+5000)
- Philadelphia Phillies (+5000)
- Minnesota Twins (+6000)
- Boston Red Sox (+8000)
- Cleveland Guardians (+8000)
- San Francisco Giants (+12500)
- Baltimore Orioles (+25000)
- Miami Marlins (+50000)
- Los Angeles Angels (+75000)
- Texas Rangers (+75000)
- Detroit Tigers (+150000)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+250000)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+250000)
- Washington Nationals (+250000)
- Colorado Rockies (+250000)
- Oakland Athletics (+250000)
- Kansas City Royals (+250000)
- Cincinnati Reds (+250000)
- Chicago Cubs (+250000)
At this stage in the season, only a handful of teams have a realistic shot at winning the Fall Classic. In 68.2% of my simulations, the World Series is won by either the Astros, Dodgers, Mets, or Yankees. The Braves, Padres, Rays, and Blue Jays are marginal contenders, as they win the World Series in 23.5% of my simulations.
The key to thinking about World Series odds (without being a math nerd like me) is to think about how the new MLB postseason format works. Even though there are more teams in the playoffs this year, the new format benefits better teams more than the old format because of the first-round byes.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
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Read Chris Wassel’s Caesars Sportsbook review for more insight and get your welcome bonus below, or continue reading our MLB World Series Betting odds.
Most teams are appropriately priced in the current market, but there are still a few gems to be found.
World Series Winner Simulation
| Team | World Series Win % | Breakeven Odds |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 23.30% | 329 |
| New York Mets | 17.50% | 471 |
| Houston Astros | 16.30% | 513 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 10.90% | 817 |
| San Diego Padres | 6.90% | 1343 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 5.90% | 1596 |
| Atlanta Braves | 5.50% | 1729 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 5.20% | 1805 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 2.10% | 4573 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 1.80% | 5582 |
| Chicago White Sox | 1.40% | 6962 |
| Minnesota Twins | 1.10% | 8611 |
| The Field | 0.80% | 12400 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0.70% | 14268 |
| Seattle Mariners | 0.60% | 17141 |
World Series Favorites 2022
New York Yankees To Win World Series (+380) at Betway Sportsbook
Wager: 1 Unit
In the American League, the Yankees and Astros are the top World Series favorites. While both teams improved from trades this week, New York is the best World Series pick among these two teams.
The Yankees currently have the AL’s best record at 70-36, putting them 1.5 games ahead of the Astros for the league’s top seed. My model projects them to finish with 104.4 wins, while the Astros should finish with 102.1 wins.
What makes the Bronx Bombers dangerous is that they have very few flaws. Outside of Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Josh Donaldson, every regular position player is having an above-average offensive season. New York also features the AL MVP frontrunner in Aaron Judge, who’s been arguably the best hitter in baseball this year.
With MLB’s best offense supporting a formidable rotation of Gerrit Cole, Frankie Montas, Nestor Cortes, and Jameson Taillon, the Yankees seem the most likely to win the World Series, making this our MLB bet of the day.
See the latest MLB futures odds and picks
- AL Pennant & Division Predictions & Odds
- AL MVP Predictions & Odds
- AL Cy Young Predictions & Odds
- AL Rookie of the Year Predictions & Odds
- NL Pennant & Division Predictions & Odds
- NL MVP Predictions & Odds
- NL Cy Young Predictions & Odds
- NL Rookie of the Year Predictions & Odds
World Series Contenders 2022
New York Mets To Win World Series (+800) at Betway Sportsbook
Wager: 1 Unit
Emotionally, New York seems like a bad bet as they always seem to come up short. Logically, the baseball team from Queens should be the kings of the National League outside of the Dodgers.
Even though Los Angeles is the best team in the National League, New York still wins the No. 1 seed in the NL in 37.7% of my simulations. The Mets are also likely to win their division after opening up a 4.5-game lead over the Braves in the NL East.
With Jacob deGrom finally back in New York’s rotation, I currently project the Mets to finish with 6.5 more wins than the Braves.
World Series Sleepers 2022
Tampa Bay Rays To Win World Series (+5000) at Caesars Sportsbook
Wager: 1 Unit
The Rays are the only longshot worth a look right now for World Series futures.
As a general rule this year, longshots are actually the worst value bets for the World Series. Even the contenders at shorter prices that my model doesn’t like have better value than most of the dogs.
At 50-to-1 odds, Tampa Bay is my best value bet right now, as they win the World Series in 5.8% of my simulations.
While the Rays probably won’t catch the Yankees in the AL East, they’re still well-positioned in the first round of the playoffs. My model projects them to win 88.5 games, which is the second-most of any non-division winner.
This means that Tampa Bay is likely to have home-field advantage in the first round, as they’re either the third or fourth seed in 65.3% of my simulations.
The Rays lack the offensive firepower of the Yankees, Astros, Blue Jays, and Red Sox, but their pitching gives them a fighting chance. Shane McClanahan could be a beast in a short series, and their bullpen keeps teams guessing.
At these odds, Tampa Bay is definitely worth a World Series bet right now.