Down the stretch we come, and that means it’s last call in the National League MVP race.
At this stage of the season, a hot spell can turn a sleeper pick into a frontrunner. In the National League, with two of the three divisional races still up for grabs and all but one playoff spot available, the MVP race could come down to the final few at-bats, despite the fact that a clear frontrunner has emerged.
Here’s a look at our updated 2022 NL MVP predictions and best bets as the stretch drive approaches.
NL MVP Odds 2022
NL MVP MLB betting odds are current as of Monday, Aug. 23 and courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
- Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals (-350)
- Austin Riley, 3B, Atlanta Braves (+600)
- Nolan Arenado, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals (+900)
- Freddie Freeman, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers (+1600)
- Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets (+2000)
- Manny Machado, 3B, San Diego Padres (+3000)
- Mookie Betts, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (+3000)
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NL MVP Prediction 2022
Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals (-350)
We’ve advocated for both Riley and Machado at various points of the season, but there’s no real denying the fact that Goldschmidt has been both the best and most valuable player for the Cardinals, especially of late.
Goldschmidt leads the majors in batting average (.340) and OPS (1.059) as of August 22 and matching his 2021 home run total (31) and surpassing his 2021 RBI total (99).
Further bolstering Goldschmidt’s candidacy: The Cardinals went 21-7 during a 28-game stretch from July to August that pushed them atop the NL Central and almost guaranteed them a postseason spot.
It’s possible that both Goldschmidt and the Cardinals could cool off in September. But until that happens, he has to be considered the MVP.
NL MVP Contenders 2022
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves (+600)
We’ve been big supporters of Riley’s candidacy this year, especially since teammates Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies have missed significant time this season. We first advocated for him as a sleeper pick at around (+4000) in May, so congrats if you heeded our advice.
Despite the fact Riley has carried Atlanta’s offense in their absence, and the fact the Braves are almost assured of a postseason spot, he cooled off in August, especially power-wise. Atlanta is also unlikely to win the NL East now that the Mets have taken off in the second half.
If Riley can start hitting big homers and lug the Braves to the division and a first-round bye, he’ll be deserving of legitimate consideration. But given that Riley’s off stretch has coincided with Goldschmidt’s hot spell, it’d be a surprise if he earns the votes.
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Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals (+900)
We are loathing advocating for two MVP candidates from the same team, because we are sticklers for the term “valuable," and how can two players be most valuable to their team? But given the year Arenado is having, he’d be a worthy second option behind Goldschmidt given the fact the Cardinals duo rank first and second in WAR (Goldschmidt 6.8, Arenado 6.5) and Arenado ranks third in OPS as of August 22.
It could be argued that Arenado is more valuable than Goldschmidt, given the fact it is Arenado who has batted behind Goldschmidt all season and that Arenado ranks in the top-5 in defensive WAR (1.5) while Goldschmidt is a -0.7, but Arenado’s only hope for the award is an injury to Goldschmidt.
Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers (+1600)
Freeman, the 2020 MVP, has jumped teammates Trea Turner and Mookie Betts to become the top Dodgers player on this list.
Despite the fact that LA has been on an absolute tear since the All-Star break, and the fact that Freeman leads baseball in hits and doubles as of August 22, the Dodgers’ success is a function of their loaded roster instead of any single player’s performance.
