What are climate prediction markets?
If you plan on joining an event futures trading platform like Kalshi, Polymarket, or Robinhood, one of the topics besides predictions on tech, politics, or the economy, is climate. That’s right – you can make predictions on future climate events, be it temperature increases/decreases, changes in global sea water levels, or extreme weather events happening right here in the USA.
Since the climate remains a key talking point in today’s media, it’s easy to see why this has become a core topic class on prediction markets like Kalshi and others. Climate events sit among the most popular markets to trade on at predictor platforms so that you can flex your weather forecasting skills by trading in event contracts related to prospective climate patterns and outcomes.
How do climate prediction markets work?
Making predictions on climate outcomes relies on purchasing “Yes” or “No” derivative contracts. You can purchase “Yes” contracts if you think a climatic event is likely to happen, and “No” contracts if you believe it won’t.
The price of each Yes/No derivatives contract denotes the probability of climate predictions, with $0.01 suggesting that an event is super unlikely to happen and $1 meaning it has a high probability of occurring. These values can fluctuate based on market activity right up to the point where the outcome of an event is going to be decided, which is part of what makes prediction markets so exciting; you can also sell any contracts you’ve acquired early if you get cold feet about a particular event prediction.
If you’ve made a prediction on a climate event, the trade will settle at a predetermined time, at which point, you’ll find out if you’ve made a successful prediction or not. If you have, your positions settle at a rate of $1 per contract, meaning you’ll make a profit if you purchased contracts at, say, $0.65. If you’ve guessed wrong, the $0.65 you initially invested in the trade will be lost.
Five examples of climate prediction markets
As the term suggests, climate prediction markets cover all things climate-related – be it daily temperatures in specific cities, snow and rainfall statistics in certain countries, or the possibility of natural disasters. You can also make predictions on year-by-year climate statistics, including mean sea level changes and peaks and troughs in the average global temperature.
On paper, all that sounds easy enough to understand. But to understand how exactly climate event predictions work, it’s worth taking a look at some specific examples, too.
Example 1: Number of tornadoes this month
Headline-grabbing weather events like tornadoes are popular to make predictions on, with all the prediction markets I tested giving users the chance to trade on how many twisters will occur in a specific 30-day period. For example, at Kalshi, you can purchase Yes/No event contracts based on whether you think there will be more than 150 tornadoes across the USA in March 2026.
Example 2: Highest temperature in Washington, D.C. today
While many climate prediction events are based on comparatively long-term data and outcomes, some sites do give you the chance to make daily selections on things like maximum daily temperature in specific cities. For example, at Kalshi, you can purchase Yes/No contracts based on the maximum daily temperature record in pretty much every major US city, with outcomes based on real-time weather forecasting data.
Example 3: Snow in NYC this month
The arrival (or not) of snow is always a hotly contested talking point, so it makes sense that snowfall predictions are a mainstay of climate prediction markets. On the event trading platforms I tested, I was able to purchase event contracts predicting both that specific cities will see snow, and exactly how much coverage (in inches) there will be. Of course, this is an interesting time of year for snowfall predictions, so you can expect plenty of variation in trading values.
Example 4: Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Climate change, specifically temperature-related markets, always prove very popular at prediction markets, with traders able to buy positions on whether or not they think the current year or month will be the hottest on record. Prediction trading platforms like Kalshi have already begun offering yes/no positions on whether traders think 2026 will prove the hottest year on record, with this being a great example of the kind of long-term trades you can make on these sites.
Example 5: US meets its climate goals
It’s possible to predict the year in which the USA (and other countries, for that matter) will meet its current climate goals, be it “By 2030” (Yes/No), “By 2035” (Yes/No), and so on.
Choosing the best sites for climate predictions
Climate prediction markets are available on all of the USA’s most popular event trading platforms. So, which should you choose as your go-to platform of choice? Below, I’ve put together a comparative shortlist of some of the best-rated prediction markets:
| Trading platform | Example climate prediction market | Key pro | Key con |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Highest temperature in LA today. | Strong regulatory oversight from the CFTC. | Low trading volumes on some markets. |
| Polymarket | How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 2026? | Outstanding event market coverage. | The waiting list remains in the USA. |
| Robinhood | Total snowfall in Chicago in March 2026. | Event contracts powered by Kalshi | Limited markets compared to competitors. |
What are the pros and cons of making predictions on climate events?
“Climate” often appears as a topic class alongside predictions on the economy and other core event trading subsets, so it’s clear that there’s significant demand for this kind of event trading. However, when push comes to shove, what are the core benefits and drawbacks of making climate-related event predictions? And what should you be aware of from the outset?
To help answer both these queries, I’ve pulled together a definitive list of the key pros and cons related to climate prediction market trading right here.
Pros
- Excellent market and topic spread
- Significant trading volumes
- Choose from both short and long-term trades
- Backed by real-time data and analytics
- Always available
Cons
- Ethical concerns, specifically about trading on disasters
Should you make predictions on climate events? My final verdict
On platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood, climate prediction markets sit alongside other topic classes like finance, politics, economy, and culture as one of the most popular asset classes available on these types of event trading sites. There’s obviously significant demand for climate-related event trading, with users able to predict a wide variety of outcomes related to weather and climatic events.
While you’ll almost certainly stumble across climate-related prediction markets on most event trading platforms, trading volumes can vary significantly from site to site. Note, too, that there are some ethical concerns relating to climate event predictions, which could potentially lead to greater regulatory scrutiny and restrictions in the future.
If you like the idea of predicting upcoming weather and climate events, you can access our pick of the best prediction market platforms via the recommendations in the banners around this page.
