UFC 306 will be the first live sporting event to grace the Sphere in Las Vegas on Saturday, Sept. 14.
With a stacked card that features a bantamweight title bout between Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili and a women’s flyweight title fight between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko, the event promises high-stakes action and intense battles that could shift the UFC landscape.
Let’s break down the UFC 306 card and pick out some of our best bets for Saturday night’s showcase.
UFC odds used for these UFC 306 picks are current as of Thursday, Sept. 12, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
UFC 306 Main Event Odds
To Win: Sean O’Malley (-135) • Merab Dvalishvili (+114)
Despite entering this title bout with the bantamweight belt, Sean O’Malley is only a slight favorite over challenger Merab Dvalishvili.
O’Malley (18-1) claimed the belt last year with a knockout victory over Aljamain Sterling and successfully defended his title in April against Marlon Vera, winning by unanimous decision.
Dvalishvili (17-4) will certainly pose a threat, as the Georgian fighter hasn’t lost since 2018, racking off 10 consecutive victories — nine of which have gone the distance.
As the odds indicate, this fight could go either way.
UFC 306 Card & Schedule
The Sphere in Las Vegas will host UFC 306, which features 10 fights in all.
The lone early prelim bout is scheduled to begin at 7:30 p.m. ET, the prelims will start at 8 p.m., and the main card kicks off at 10 p.m.
The main card schedule is as follows
- Bantamweight Title Bout: Sean O’Malley (c) vs. Merab Dvalishvili
- Women’s Flyweight Title Bout: Alexa Grasso (c) vs. Valentina Shevchenko
- Featherweight: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes
- Lightweight: Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics
- Flyweight: Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode Osbourne
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UFC 306 Main Event: O’Malley vs Dvalishvili
Sean O’Malley Defeats Merab Dvalishvili (Decision)
The UFC 306 main event will see two of the world’s best bantamweight fighters go toe-to-toe. The bout will also represent a significant clash of styles.
O’Malley is one of the circuit’s best strikers, and he has the power to end this contest at any moment. The 29-year-old has won 67% of his fights by knockout and lands an impressive 7.63 significant strikes per minute.
Dvalishvili is a grappler who will try to get O’Malley on the ground. The Georgian fighter averages 6.43 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he’ll try to use his smaller frame to get under O’Malley’s takedown defense.
If successful, Dvalishvili can dictate the fight by holding O’Malley down and winning by decision. If not, O’Malley will likely win over the judges by landing more significant strikes.
“Suga" also has knockout potential, so I’ll back the champion to retain his belt.
UFC 306 Main Event Best Bet
O’Malley vs Dvalishvili: Goes the Distance (-115)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
O’Malley’s most recent title defense against Marlon Vera, a similarly strong grappler, went the distance, and I expect this fight to do the same.
Dvalishvili doesn’t have any real knockout potential here, as nine of his last 10 bouts have been decided by the judges.
Unless O’Malley catches the Georgian, this fight should reach the final bell, making it my best UFC bet today.
UFC 306 Undercard Predictions
Alexa Grasso Defeats Valentina Shevchenko (Decision)
We’ve got plenty of recent data to analyze ahead of this title rematch, as Grasso and Shevchenko fought twice for the flyweight title last year.
Grasso took the belt from Shevchenko in the first meeting, stunning the UFC 283 crowd by forcing her opponent to tap out late in the fourth round. The rematch in September ended in a draw, a result Shevchenko was unhappy with after one of the judges awarded Grasso a 10-8 victory in the final round.
While the 36-year-old is eager to reclaim her title, it’s reasonable to wonder if her best days are behind her.
Diego Lopes Defeats Brian Ortega (Knockout)
Ortega has lost three of his last five fights and is entering the twilight of his career. Meanwhile, Lopes has won four straight, three of which ended in the first round.
This fight is the biggest yet for the 29-year-old Brazilian, but his power and speed should be enough to rough up Ortega.
Daniel Zellhuber Defeats Esteban Ribovics (Decision)
There isn’t much to separate these two lightweights, who have only lost once in their MMA careers.
However, Zellhuber (15-1) has slight height and reach advantages in this matchup with Ribovics (13-1), which could pay dividends.
In a bout I expect to go the distance, look for the judges to favor Mexico’s “Golden Boy."
Ronaldo Rodriguez Defeats Ode Osbourne (Decision)
Osbourne is the more technical fighter in this matchup, but Rodriguez has more to prove.
The 25-year-old from Mexico has won six straight fights, most recently defeating Denys Bondar in his UFC Fight Night debut.
Meanwhile, the 32-year-old Osbourne has lost three of his last four bouts and doesn’t look like he has much juice left.
This matchup is difficult to call, but I’ll Rodriguez in a fight that should go the distance.
UFC 306 Undercard Best Bets
Grasso Defeats Shevchenko (-135)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The third time won’t be the charm for Shevchenko, who is nearing the end of her career.
Grasso has had success in this matchup previously and should retain her belt in the final fight of the trilogy.
Zellhuber Defeats Ribovics by Decision (+110)
Zellhuber is a -230 favorite in his matchup with Ribovics, so adding a method of victory prop to get plus-money odds is worth the squeeze.
These two fighters have solid staying power, though Zellhuber has a slight cardio advantage over Ribovics.
If it gets to the judges, Zellhuber should prevail on Saturday.
