UFC 285 Odds & Predictions

Last Updated: Feb 28, 2023

UFC 285 isn’t just a typical pay-per-view. It is the long-awaited return of one of MMA’s greats, sporting a body that has been completely remade.

Jon Jones‘ heavyweight debut will be one of the biggest stories of the UFC year. Throw in a fight from Valentina Shevchenko, another fighter very much in the G.O.A.T. conversation, and UFC 285 is shaping up to a massive night.

And that’s not all. The card is deep and ripe with fascinating young fighters.

Let’s explore.

All UFC 285 odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and current as of Sunday, Feb. 26, at 9 a.m. ET.

UFC 285 Main Event Odds

  • To Win: Jon Jones (-165) | Ciryl Gane (+140)

UFC Pick of the Day

Read more about this UFC 285 best bet below.

UFC 285 Card & Schedule

Las Vegas, somewhat fittingly, will play host to UFC 285. T-Mobile Arena, a familiar venue, will get the honors.

The 14-fight card will kick off at 6:15 p.m. ET with early prelims. Prelims will then start at 8 p.m.

The five-fight main card will begin at 10 p.m. and feature the following bouts:

  • Heavyweight Championship: Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane
  • Flyweight Championship: Valentina Shevchenko vs (c) Alexa Grasso
  • Welterweight: Geoff Neal vs Shavkat Rakhmonov
  • Lightweight: Mateusz Gamrot vs Jalin Turner
  • Middleweight: Bo Nickal vs Jamie Pickett

UFC 285 Main Event Prediction

Jon Jones vs Cyril Gane (Heavyweight Championship): Jones by Decision

February 8, 2020. That is the last time Jones was in the octagon.

Since then, he has completely reshaped his body to make the jump to heavyweight. One storyline to watch is what Jones weighs prior to the fight. We know he’s bigger, but how much bigger will he be?

Jones is a supremely talented, supremely creative and supremely seasoned fighter. Still, the variables that he’ll be facing are very real. The layoff coupled with the weight jump are significant elements to this fight.

Gane, meanwhile, is plenty talented as well. After losing to Francis Ngannou early last year, Gane responded with a thrilling victory over Tai Tuivasa.

Gane is talented, patient and supremely athletic. He’s also not nearly as seasoned as Jones, although how many fighters are?

Although the questions regarding Jones are real, so is the talent. And at the odds, it still feels like great value.

UFC 285 Main Event Best Bet

Jones to Win (-165)

Wager: 1 Unit

Gane is certainly capable, although Jones’ seasoning and creativity feels like a deciding factor for this UFC pick of the day.

UFC 285 Undercard Predictions

Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso (Flyweight Championship) Pick: Shevchenko by Decision

The last time we saw her, Shevchenko finally looked, well, mortal. She won a close decision against Taila Santos, although you could make the argument that she should have lost.

Shevchenko now takes on a fighter who is on a bit of a roll, and Grasso also has balance in her game. Still, despite the close call last time out, betting against Shevchenko just doesn’t seem wise.

Her game is balanced and dangerous. While Grasso has the skills to go the distance, I don’t think she’ll be able to overcome the scorecards.

Geoff Neal vs Shavkat Rakhmonov Pick: Rakhmonov by Submission

Few fighters in all of MMA have more momentum than Rakhmonov, a master on the ground and a submission wiz. The lopsided odds here certainly reflect that, as Rakhmonov, who has yet to lose in his UFC career, takes on an experienced fighter in Neal.

Maybe Neal lands a shot, although it just seems unlikely. Having won three of his last four fights by submission, I expect the trend to continue for Rakhmonov. If the fight gets on the ground, look out.

Mateusz Gamrot vs Jalin Turner Pick: Turner by Knockout

The return of Jones is certainly the headline on the card, although this is the fight outside of the main event, I am looking forward to most.

Gamrot is coming off a loss to Beneil Dariush, It was a close, tough fight, and Dariush is a star. The fact that Gamrot is subbing in for the injured Dan Hooker says a lot about him (it’s also a better fight).

As much as I love Gamrot, I am a huge believer in Turner. As a slight dog, I think he has enormous potential. He keeps rolling with a knockout.

Bo Nickal vs Jamie Pickett Pick: Nickal by Submission

On the topic of hype, the Nickal era is upon us. The former star collegiate wrestler has become one of the most hyped UFC prospects in some time, and he’s an enormous favorite out of the gate.

His style is, well, obvious. Nickal, however, also is good enough on his feet and incorporates some very creative submissions.

Pickett, the more experienced fighter, is likely to have his hands full. While he is likely to have an edge in striking, it just won’t be enough. When this first goes to the ground, that truly could be it. The problem is that the odds on this fight are brutal, unless you like Pickett.

UFC 285 Best Bets

Gamrot vs Turner: Turner to Win (+180)

Wager: 1 Unit

It’s a tough fight, but Turner has tremendous value at almost two-to-one odds.

Jones vs Gane: Over 4.5 Rounds (-145)

Wager: 1 Unit

As mentioned above, I like this one to go all the way. Jones should start slow after a long layoff and pick it up after that.

Shevchenko vs Grasso: Over 3.5 Rounds (+100)

Wager: 1 Unit

While many fights are poised to end early, this one feels like it could go a while. Grasso stays in this longer than many expect.

Dricus Du Plessis vs Derek Brunson: Du Plessis to Win (-215)

Wager: 1 Unit

An emerging fighter with a ton of game delivers an eye-opening win. Fun fight with a fun potential result.

Cody Garbrandt vs Trevin Jones: Garbrandt to Win (-170)

Wager: 1 Unit

It’s been a brutal run for Garbrandt, although it’s come against tough competition. This an opponent that should get him back on track.


Adam Kramer

Adam Kramer is an NFL, college football, and gambling analyst for The Game Day. While college football has long been his calling, he’s also covered sports such as boxing, horse racing, and baseball at The Game Day and in other places. He’s also written for Bleacher Report, VSiN, and various other outlets over the past decade-plus.

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