UFC 274 Odds & Predictions | Oliveira vs. Gaethje Best Prop Bets | Namajunas vs Esparza Fight Card Picks
@KegsnEggsUFC 274 is loaded. Yes, most pay-per-views carry that vibe. But this UFC card feels, well, different.
Two title fights (though one fighter in the bouts can’t win the title), a slew of fan-favorite fighters and an amazing, 15-fight card are on deck come Saturday night.
The breaking news from Friday: Charles Oliveira missed weight, meaning he’s stripped of the Lightweight Championship and cannot win it back in his bout with Justin Gaethje. The strap is now vacant.
Elsewhere, Michael Chandler bounces back fresh off his absolute war with Gaethje at UFC 268 in November. Rose Namajunas, having won the title and then defended her title against Zhang Weili, will look to defend her title against a familiar foe.
Oh, and did I mention there are 15 glorious fights?
Let’s dive into this card’s odds and make some UFC 274 predictions.
All UFC 274 odds are current as of Thursday, May 5, at 4 p.m. ET with BetMGM Sportsbook.
UFC 274 Main Event Odds
- To Win: Charles Oliveira (-165) | Justin Gaethje (+140) | Draw (+5000)
UFC 274 Card & Schedule
The Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona will play host for UFC 274.
Early prelims will begin at 5:30 p.m. ET, with prelims starting at 9 p.m. ET. The fight-five main card will begin at 10 p.m. ET and will feature the following fights:
- Lightweight Championship: Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje
- Strawweight Championship: Rose Namajunas (C) vs. Carla Esparza
- Lightweight: Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson
- Light Heavyweight: Mauricio Rua vs. Ovince Saint Preux
- Lightweight: Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon
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UFC 274 Predictions
Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje Pick (Lightweight Championship)
Oliveira’s weight mishap means he cannot win the belt even if he defeats Gaethje, which throws an intriguing dynamic into this fight.
In terms of fighting styles, they don’t come much different than this.
Justin Gaethje (23-3) is one of the elite strikers on the planet. Charles Oliveira (32-8) is a submission wizard—something that was on display in his last fight against Dustin Poirier.
Oliveria has been rocked early on in his last two fights, which is something to watch here.
Gaethje, as we saw against Michael Chandler, likely will be aggressive. While he’s a superb striker, he can also wrestle. The only risk in that is avoiding the submission.
If he can do that, Gaethje has a real shot. At plus-money, this wager holds great value.
Oliveira-Gaethje Prediction: Gaethje wins the title with a stoppage.
I don’t see this fight going to a decision. In fact, it would be a massive upset if it did.
Oliveira-Gaethje BET: Gaethje by KO/TKO or DQ (+200)
Wager: 1 Unit
prop bet
+200
Justin Gaethje: KO/TKO/DQ over Oliveira
Bet $20, Payout $60
Rose Namajunas (c) vs. Carla Esparza Pick (Strawweight Championship)
It didn’t come nearly as easy as the first fight, although Namajunas’ (12-4) decision victory to retain the title belt over Weili in November was equally as massive.
Now, she’ll get on Esparza (19-6) — an opponent she faced (and lost against) in 2014.
Esparza’s strategy will likely be familiar: Bring the fight to the ground. An elite wrestler, Esparza has won her last five fights.
She also hasn’t fought in nearly a year, though. Namajunas knows this, and she will be ready. Her ground game is also incredibly solid.
Namajunas’ versatile skill set will do wonders in a matchup of this caliber.
Namajunas-Esparza Prediction: Namajunas wins and retains.
This fight will likely spend some time on the ground, which could make time move somewhat quickly. Namajunas does enough on the feet, however, to keep the title.
Namajunas-Esparza BET: Namajaunas by Decision (+150)
Wager: 1 Unit
prop bet
+150
Namajunas defeats Esparza By Decision
Bet $20, Payout $50
Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson Pick
The other fighter to emerge from one of the best fights in recent memory will fight once again. After losing to Gaethje last fall, Chandler (22-7) is back as a sizable chalk after raising his profile in defeat.
Although Chandler is 1-2 in the UFC, his two losses came to Gaethje and Oliveira.
Translation: he’s still really, really good.
Ferguson (26-6) has also not run well of late, losing his last three. Although those losses came to Gaethje, Oliveira, and Beneil Dariush. He’s still a superb fighter, although Chandler feels simply better.
Chandler-Ferguson Prediction: Chandler wins by KO.
Chandler doesn’t just win; he makes a statement.
Chandler’s run of unfortunate luck finally takes a turn. I don’t love him as massive chalk, so I’m looking for better odds with the knockout.
Chandler-Ferguson BET: Chandler by KO/TKO or DQ (-110)
Wager: 1 Unit
prop bet
-110
Chandler defeats Ferguson by KO/TKO/DQ
Bet $20, Payout $38
Mauricio Rua vs. Ovince Saint Preux Pick
Is this Rua’s (27-12-1) last fight? The outcome could sway that decision one way or another. Or, perhaps it’s already decided.
Regardless, Rua enters this fight having won four out of his last five. The catch, of course, is that he hasn’t fought since November 2020.
His opponent, Saint Preux (25-16), is also in the twilight of his fighting career. At 39, and having lost three of the last four fights, this feels like a moment. It’s worth noting that he is coming down in weight.
Given the time away and the ages, this is a tougher one to cap. Both fights are good enough on the ground that there are likely to be ample takedowns. What happens from there will likely dictate the result.
Rua-Saint Preux Prediction: Saint Preux wins by decision.
These two met in 2014. Saint Preux delivered a knockout win, and it certainly elevated his status a great deal. He gets his second win, and he does it somewhat convincingly.
It could be a knockout, although I believe there will be enough mat time for this one to go the distance. Saint Preux delivers a win, and Rua heads off into the sunset.
Rua-Saint Preux BET: Saint Preux by Decision +300
WAGER: 1 unit
prop bet
+300
Saint Preux defeats Rua by Decision
Bet $20, Payout $80
Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon
On the topic of potential retirement, enter Cerrone (36-16). Having lost six consecutive fights, the fan favorite’s last win came three years ago. It’s worth noting, however, that many of these fights have come against excellent opponents.
Still, Cerrone is a sizable favorite despite the drought. His opponent, Lauzon (28-16), has not fought since October of 2019. At the time of his hiatus, Luazon lost three of four fights.
Both fighters have a similar style, and I simply do not expect this to go the distance. Only one of Cerrone’s last five fights has gone the distance.
Cerrone-Lauzon Prediction: Cerrone To Win Before Decision
The time away certainly factors into this bet. I don’t see this going the full length. The hope is that theme will continue, and the Cowboy (Cerrone) finally feels the sensation of victory again.
Cerrone-Lauzon BET: Cerrone by KO/TKO or DQ (+175)
Wager: 1 Unit
prop bet
+175
Cerrone defeats Lauzon by KO/TKO/DQ
Bet $20, Payout $55
UFC 274 Best Bets
Gaethje Wins in Round 1 (+550)
Wager: 1 Unit
Oliveira has taken serious shots in the first round his last few fights, only to recover. If Gaethje can follow the trend, he can win the main event somewhat early.
At more than 5/1, it’s worth a sprinkle.
prop bet
+550
Gaethje defeats Oliveira in Rd 1
Bet $20, Payout $130
Namajunas vs. Esparza Goes Distance (-175)
Wager: 1 Unit
Although it’s a five-round fight, I’m not worried. The wrestling will push this fight to the floor enough, although Namajunas will do plenty in between.
prop bet
-175
Namajunas vs Esparza Goes the Distance
Bet $20, Payout $31
Brandon Royval (-225) vs. Matt Schnell
Wager: 1 Unit
Let’s throw a prelim pick on there. I love watching Royval fight. He’s scrappy, tough on the ground and impossible to really get your hands on. Schnell will be the latest to find that out.
moneyline
-225
Royval to defeat Schnell
Bet $20, Payout $29
