What Kalshi and Polymarket share
Before I get into where they split, it helps to understand why these two sites even get compared in the first place.
The core idea is identical
If you don’t know what event predictions are yet, they work by turning future events into tradeable contracts with a $1.00 notional size, where the price reflects the crowd’s implied probability. Buy a “Yes" contract at $0.70, and if the event happens you get $1.00 per contract. If it doesn’t, you lose your position and get nothing. On both sites you’re trading against other participants on an order book, not against the exchange itself.
They cover similar ground
Similar to our Kalshi vs Robinhood article, I found overlap in categories like politics, sports, crypto, economics, and cultural events on both sites. Both blew up during the 2024 US presidential election cycle, and they continue to list markets around sporting events, Fed decisions, and tech milestones in 2026.
The biggest historical difference was regulation
If you only remember one thing from this whole article, make it this section, because regulation is the thread that runs through everything else.
Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated status
Kalshi has been a CFTC Designated Contract Market (DCM) since November 2020, so every contract goes through a formal approval process. Your funds sit in segregated US bank accounts, and the site feels like a traditional brokerage from the moment you log in.
Polymarket’s two-track structure
Polymarket originally ran as a decentralized, non-custodial market on Polygon for international users, but that version has always been off-limits to Americans and is a completely separate product. Polymarket US (operated by QCX LLC) has been a CFTC Designated Contract Market since July 2025, following a $112 million acquisition of the QCEX exchange and clearinghouse. That means it has its own clearing infrastructure, participant accounts, and a Settlement Bank.
Why this is important
Both sites are now CFTC-regulated DCMs with exchange-style infrastructure, which means the regulatory gap between them is narrower than it used to be. The bigger differences come down to how long each has been operating under that framework, fee structures, and how trading and settlement work.
Pros and cons of Kalshi vs Polymarket
If you’re curious about Kalshi vs Polymarket, here’s a quick look at what’s good and what’s not so great:
Pros
- Both sites cover a wide range of event categories
- Both sites are CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Markets
- The industry is maturing fast with new rules and institutional interest
Cons
- US availability varies by state
Market structure and how trading works
I tested both sites and once you’re inside, they really don’t feel like the same type of product at all.
Kalshi’s exchange model
Kalshi reads like a brokerage screen with order books, filters, and a straightforward order ticket where opposing sides of each event contract contribute $1 together. So if you’ve used a traditional trading app before you’ll feel right at home.
Polymarket’s exchange model
Polymarket US runs through a CFTC-regulated framework with intermediated trading, clearing infrastructure, and a Settlement Bank for participant funds, meaning the experience looks more like a futures account.
Fees, funding, and the cost of trading
Fees look like a simple comparison on paper, but there’s more going on once you factor in what it costs to get money in and out of each site.
What Kalshi charges
Kalshi uses a variable fee schedule where most markets charge between $0.07 and $1.75 in taker fees per 100 contracts, with contracts near the $0.50 mark costing the most and those near $0.01 or $0.99 costing the least. On the deposit side, ACH bank transfers and wire deposits are free, but debit cards (including Apple Pay and Google Pay) carry a 2% processing fee, and crypto deposits go through their partner Zero Hash with standard network fees applying.
What Polymarket charges
As mentioned in our Polymarket review, Polymarket US charges a 0.10% taker fee and gives makers a 0.10% rebate, with no fees on deposits or withdrawals from Polymarket’s side.
The takeaway on cost
Kalshi’s fees can range from about $0.07 to $1.75 per 100 contracts on most markets, while Polymarket US applies a flat 0.10% taker fee with a 0.10% maker rebate, which is a significant gap that adds up fast. Both sites accept traditional deposit methods like bank transfers and debit cards.
Resolution, rules, and trust
This part doesn’t get enough thought, because how a site decides that an event actually happened is what directly determines whether you get paid or not.
Kalshi’s centralized resolution
Every Kalshi market lists named “Source Agencies" in its contract terms, and those agencies are what determine the outcome. When a market expires, Kalshi’s internal markets team checks that source and most markets settle within a few hours once the official outcome is confirmed.
Polymarket’s oracle-based system
Polymarket US settles markets under the exchange’s own rules using named official sources specified in each contract’s terms, with recognized news outlets available as backup sources in certain market types.
| Feature | Kalshi | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|
| Regulatory status | CFTC-regulated DCM (since Nov 2020) | CFTC-regulated DCM (since July 2025) |
| Settlement | USD via exchange | USD via regulated exchange with clearing |
| Custody model | Site-held, segregated accounts | Intermediated, with Clearinghouse Accounts and Settlement Bank |
| Funding methods | Bank transfer, debit card, wire, crypto | Bank transfer, ACH, debit card |
Availability and state-level access
It’s important to know that where you live in the US can determine how much of each site you can use.
Where each site is available
As mentioned in our Kalshi review, Kalshi is live across most US states under federal CFTC jurisdiction, though it’s fighting state-level challenges in Nevada and Massachusetts. Polymarket US also operates nationwide under federal oversight, but faces its own state-level pushback in Nevada, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut.
The federal vs state tug-of-war
Both sites are caught between federal regulators who see prediction markets as derivatives and state authorities who want to treat them as making predictions, and until courts draw a clear line this grey zone will keep affecting availability in certain states.
The 2026 backdrop
Prediction markets are growing in 2026, and they’re being reshaped by regulators and lawmakers while people are still actively trading on them.
The CFTC is writing new rules
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig announced in January 2026 that the agency will draft new rules for prediction markets, withdrawing a prior proposal that would have prohibited politics and sports-related event contracts.
Insider trading enforcement is ramping up
Kalshi recently disclosed two insider trading cases to the CFTC after running 200 investigations over the past year, and the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York said fraud prosecutions tied to prediction markets are on the way.
Same destination, different roads: Kalshi vs Polymarket
The Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison really comes down to what kind of trader you are. Kalshi has the longer track record as a regulated US exchange and offers the widest range of funding options including Apple Pay, Google Pay, and crypto. Polymarket US is the newer option with a significantly lower fee structure that active traders will notice.
If you want to get involved in prediction markets, sign up using the banners on this page and see how it works for yourself.
