The American League is shaping up to be a two-horse race between the Houston Astros in the west and New York Yankees in the east, while the AL Central features a bit more drama with three teams vying for first place.
- To determine the best MLB Futures Bets, including the best AL Pennant Futures Bets and AL Division Futures Bets below, I updated my MLB model and then simulated the rest of the season 25,000 times.
- I then compare my projected outcomes against the breakeven price of the odds being offered.
Below, read to find out my 2022 AL pennant and AL division winner best bets and predictions. All MLB betting odds are current as of Aug. 10, 2022, from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise specified.
AL Pennant Winner Odds
- New York Yankees (+160)
- Houston Astros (+180)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+650)
- Seattle Mariners (+1500)
- Tampa Bay Rays (+1800)
- Chicago White Sox (+1800)
- Minnesota Twins (+2000)
- Cleveland Guardians (+5000)
- Boston Red Sox (+6000)
- Baltimore Orioles (+12500)
- Los Angeles Angels (+50000)
- Texas Rangers (+50000)
- Kansas City Royals (+150000)
- Detroit Tigers (+150000)
- Oakland Athletics (+150000)
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AL Pennant Winner Simulation
| Team | Pennant Win % | Breakeven Odds |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 38.0% | 163 |
| Houston Astros | 30.4% | 229 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 10.1% | 890 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 10.0% | 904 |
| Minnesota Twins | 3.7% | 2606 |
| Chicago White Sox | 3.4% | 2883 |
| Seattle Mariners | 2.4% | 4081 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 1.8% | 5407 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0.2% | 42273 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0.1% | 138789 |
| Detroit Tigers | 0.0% | Infinity |
| Kansas City Royals | 0.0% | Infinity |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0.0% | Infinity |
| Oakland Athletics | 0.0% | Infinity |
| Texas Rangers | 0.0% | Infinity |
AL Pennant Winner Prediction 2022
New York Yankees (+175) at Betway Sportsbook
The AL pennant is won by either the Yankees or Astros in 68.4% of my simulations, but which team is the stronger bet?
I’ve been going back and forth all season long, but I have to give the edge to New York at the moment. My model currently has them winning 0.4 games more than Houston, which explains why the Yankees are the league’s No. 1 seed in 54.6% of my simulations.
Led by AL MVP frontrunner Aaron Judge, the Yankees have the best offense in the AL, if not all of baseball. They also have great pitching to complement their heavy hitting.
My model gives New York a 1.6% edge over Houston to win the pennant, making this our MLB bet of the day.
AL Pennant Winner Contenders 2022
Tampa Bay Rays (+2000) at BetRivers Sportsbook
With every team in the AL East around .500 or better, there’s a good chance that four of them wind up making the playoffs and one of them wins the AL pennant.
Of the four non-New York teams in the division, the Rays are the best value in the futures market.
Tampa Bay’s offense is just okay (101 wRC+), but their pitching is dynamite. Led by AL Cy Young candidate Shane McClanahan, they have the fourth-lowest ERA in baseball (3.43).
With a shorter starting rotation during the postseason and more opportunities to utilize their deep bullpen, the Rays are more dangerous in the playoffs than during the regular season. At (+2000), Tampa is a longshot worth betting a few bucks on.
See the latest MLB futures odds and picks
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- AL MVP Predictions & Odds
- AL Cy Young Predictions & Odds
- AL Rookie of the Year Predictions & Odds
- NL Pennant & Division Predictions & Odds
- NL MVP Predictions & Odds
- NL Cy Young Predictions & Odds
- NL Rookie of the Year Predictions & Odds
AL East Winner Odds 2022
- New York Yankees (-5000)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+1800)
- Tampa Bay Rays (+20000)
- Boston Red Sox (+30000)
- Baltimore Orioles (+40000)
| Team | Division Win % | Breakeven Odds |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 99.9% | -104067 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0.1% | 138789 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0.0% | 416567 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0.0% | Infinity |
| Boston Red Sox | 0.0% | Infinity |
AL East Winner Prediction 2022
New York Yankees (-5000) at Caesars Sportsbook
The Yankees win the AL East in 99.9% of my simulations. At (-5000) they aren’t a great value to win the division, however, and I personally don’t like having my money locked into a bet for that long for such a small return.
AL Central Winner Odds 2022
- Minnesota Twins (+160)
- Chicago White Sox (+180)
- Cleveland Guardians (+200)
- Detroit Tigers (+100000)
- Kansas City Royals (+150000)
| Team | Division Win % | Breakeven Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 41.7% | 140 |
| Chicago White Sox | 33.7% | 197 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 24.6% | 307 |
| Detroit Tigers | 0.0% | Infinity |
| Kansas City Royals | 0.0% | Infinity |
AL Central Winner Prediction 2022
Minnesota Twins (+170) at Betway Sportsbook
Going into the season, I bet on the Twins at (+750) to win the AL Central, and now they are co-favorites to win the division. This isn’t surprising as they’ve been in first place for most of the season.
While Minnesota’s odds have changed a lot since then, there’s still some value here as my model has them winning the division in 41.7% of my simulations. Their odds should be (+140), making them a great value pick at (+170).
While the Guardians and White Sox are right there with them, the Twins should have enough talent to overtake them in the end, especially after bringing in Tyler Mahle and Jorge Lopez at the trade deadline while their rivals mostly stood still.
AL West Winner Odds 2022
- Houston Astros (-20000)
- Seattle Mariners (+10000)
- Los Angeles Angels (+500000)
- Texas Rangers (+500000)
- Oakland Athletics (+500000)
| Team | Division Win % | Breakeven Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 100.0% | -2499900 |
| Seattle Mariners | 0.0% | 2499900 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0.0% | Infinity |
| Oakland Athletics | 0.0% | Infinity |
| Texas Rangers | 0.0% | Infinity |
AL West Winner Prediction 2022
Houston Astros (-20000) at Caesars Sportsbook
Similar to the Yankees, the Astros won their division in 100% of my simulations. Once again, though, the return is too small to justify tying up my money for months.