AL Odds & Predictions 2022 | American League Pennant & Division Winner Futures Bets

Posted: Aug 10, 2022Last updated: Aug 10, 2022

The American League is shaping up to be a two-horse race between the Houston Astros in the west and New York Yankees in the east, while the AL Central features a bit more drama with three teams vying for first place.

  • To determine the best MLB Futures Bets, including the best AL Pennant Futures Bets and AL Division Futures Bets below, I updated my MLB model and then simulated the rest of the season 25,000 times.
  • I then compare my projected outcomes against the breakeven price of the odds being offered.

Below, read to find out my 2022 AL pennant and AL division winner best bets and predictions. All MLB betting odds are current as of Aug. 10, 2022, from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise specified.

AL Pennant Winner Odds

  • New York Yankees (+160)
  • Houston Astros (+180)
  • Toronto Blue Jays (+650)
  • Seattle Mariners (+1500)
  • Tampa Bay Rays (+1800)
  • Chicago White Sox (+1800)
  • Minnesota Twins (+2000)
  • Cleveland Guardians (+5000)
  • Boston Red Sox (+6000)
  • Baltimore Orioles (+12500)
  • Los Angeles Angels (+50000)
  • Texas Rangers (+50000)
  • Kansas City Royals (+150000)
  • Detroit Tigers (+150000)
  • Oakland Athletics (+150000)

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AL Pennant Winner Simulation

TeamPennant Win %Breakeven Odds
New York Yankees38.0%163
Houston Astros30.4%229
Tampa Bay Rays10.1%890
Toronto Blue Jays10.0%904
Minnesota Twins3.7%2606
Chicago White Sox3.4%2883
Seattle Mariners2.4%4081
Cleveland Guardians1.8%5407
Baltimore Orioles0.2%42273
Boston Red Sox0.1%138789
Detroit Tigers0.0%Infinity
Kansas City Royals0.0%Infinity
Los Angeles Angels0.0%Infinity
Oakland Athletics0.0%Infinity
Texas Rangers0.0%Infinity

AL Pennant Winner Prediction 2022

New York Yankees (+175) at Betway Sportsbook

The AL pennant is won by either the Yankees or Astros in 68.4% of my simulations, but which team is the stronger bet?

I’ve been going back and forth all season long, but I have to give the edge to New York at the moment. My model currently has them winning 0.4 games more than Houston, which explains why the Yankees are the league’s No. 1 seed in 54.6% of my simulations.

Led by AL MVP frontrunner Aaron Judge, the Yankees have the best offense in the AL, if not all of baseball. They also have great pitching to complement their heavy hitting.

My model gives New York a 1.6% edge over Houston to win the pennant, making this our MLB bet of the day.

AL Pennant Winner Contenders 2022

Tampa Bay Rays (+2000) at BetRivers Sportsbook

With every team in the AL East around .500 or better, there’s a good chance that four of them wind up making the playoffs and one of them wins the AL pennant.

Of the four non-New York teams in the division, the Rays are the best value in the futures market.

Tampa Bay’s offense is just okay (101 wRC+), but their pitching is dynamite. Led by AL Cy Young candidate Shane McClanahan, they have the fourth-lowest ERA in baseball (3.43).

With a shorter starting rotation during the postseason and more opportunities to utilize their deep bullpen, the Rays are more dangerous in the playoffs than during the regular season. At (+2000), Tampa is a longshot worth betting a few bucks on.


See the latest MLB futures odds and picks


AL East Winner Odds 2022

  • New York Yankees (-5000)
  • Toronto Blue Jays (+1800)
  • Tampa Bay Rays (+20000)
  • Boston Red Sox (+30000)
  • Baltimore Orioles (+40000)
TeamDivision Win %Breakeven Odds
New York Yankees99.9%-104067
Toronto Blue Jays0.1%138789
Tampa Bay Rays0.0%416567
Baltimore Orioles0.0%Infinity
Boston Red Sox0.0%Infinity

AL East Winner Prediction 2022

New York Yankees (-5000) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Yankees win the AL East in 99.9% of my simulations. At (-5000) they aren’t a great value to win the division, however, and I personally don’t like having my money locked into a bet for that long for such a small return.

AL Central Winner Odds 2022

  • Minnesota Twins (+160)
  • Chicago White Sox (+180)
  • Cleveland Guardians (+200)
  • Detroit Tigers (+100000)
  • Kansas City Royals (+150000)
TeamDivision Win %Breakeven Odds
Minnesota Twins41.7%140
Chicago White Sox33.7%197
Cleveland Guardians24.6%307
Detroit Tigers0.0%Infinity
Kansas City Royals0.0%Infinity

AL Central Winner Prediction 2022

Minnesota Twins (+170) at Betway Sportsbook

Going into the season, I bet on the Twins at (+750) to win the AL Central, and now they are co-favorites to win the division. This isn’t surprising as they’ve been in first place for most of the season.

While Minnesota’s odds have changed a lot since then, there’s still some value here as my model has them winning the division in 41.7% of my simulations. Their odds should be (+140), making them a great value pick at (+170).

While the Guardians and White Sox are right there with them, the Twins should have enough talent to overtake them in the end, especially after bringing in Tyler Mahle and Jorge Lopez at the trade deadline while their rivals mostly stood still.

AL West Winner Odds 2022

  • Houston Astros (-20000)
  • Seattle Mariners (+10000)
  • Los Angeles Angels (+500000)
  • Texas Rangers (+500000)
  • Oakland Athletics (+500000)
TeamDivision Win %Breakeven Odds
Houston Astros100.0%-2499900
Seattle Mariners0.0%2499900
Los Angeles Angels0.0%Infinity
Oakland Athletics0.0%Infinity
Texas Rangers0.0%Infinity

AL West Winner Prediction 2022

Houston Astros (-20000) at Caesars Sportsbook

Similar to the Yankees, the Astros won their division in 100% of my simulations. Once again, though, the return is too small to justify tying up my money for months.

Author

Kevin Davis

Kevin Davis is a Betting Analyst at The Game Day residing in Hoboken, NJ. Previously a Bronx resident, Kevin got his start betting on sports at his local Bronx barbershop. When sports betting was legalized across the river in Jersey, Kevin was there on the ground floor making regular trips to the Hoboken PATH station or for soup dumplings in Fort Lee. Previously, Kevin has written for The Action Network, and Vegas Insider.

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