The 2023 AL Cy Young is a wide-open competition after the reigning award winner Justin Verlander signed with the New York Mets, joining the National League.
There are five candidates listed a +900 odds or better as of March 3, 2023, on Caesars Sportsbook, including two newcomers to the American League.
Let’s take a look at our updated 2023 AL Cy Young Award predictions and best bets.
AL Cy Young Odds 2023
AL Cy Young MLB betting odds are current as of Monday, March 27, from Caesars Sportsbook.
- Jacob deGrom (+500)
- Gerrit Cole (+600)
- Dylan Cease (+900)
- Carlos Rodón (+900)
- Alek Manoah (+900)
- Cristian Javier (+1200)
- Shane Beiber (+1200)
- Shohei Ohtani (+1200)
- Shane McClanahan (+1200)
- Luis Castillo (+1600)
- Framber Valdez (+1600)
- Kevin Gausman (+1600)
- Logan Gilbert (+2000)
- Framber Valdez (+2500)
- Robbie Ray (+2500)
- Triston McKenzie (+3000)
The Yankees, Blue Jays, Guardians, and Astros all have two candidates among the top 15 for the AL Cy Young, while the Seattle Mariners boast three (Ray, Castillo, and Gilbert).
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AL Cy Young Best Bet 2023
Carlos Rodon was my original best bet for AL Cy Young due to his pre-injury value.
However, he has been removed from this list due to forearm tightness forcing him to miss the beginning of the season.
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays (+1600)
After nearly winning the NL Cy Young award in 2021, Kevin Gausman posted a 3.35 ERA with 205 strikeouts for the Blue Jays last season.
The 32-year-old reduced his walk rate to a career-best 3.3%, while conceding just 0.77 HR/9 with a 2.238 FIP.
Gausman could be the best value on the board.
AL Cy Young Contenders 2023
Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers (+500)
When healthy, Jacob deGrom is the best starting pitcher in baseball. There is little debate on this fact.
That said, when was the last time deGrom was truly healthy?
The newly-minted Rangers ace has started just 26 games over the last two seasons.
If talking about an award for best pitcher, you need to mention deGrom, but I would avoid betting on the future Hall of Famer at these odds.
Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees (+600)
The Yankees ace led the major leagues in strikeouts last season with 257 while posting a 3.50 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.
However, Cole also surrendered the second-most home runs (33), which has proven to be a major issue.
The 32-year-old has all of the tools to claim the AL Cy Young, but at +600, there may be better value on the board.
Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox (+900)
Dylan Cease finished second for the award in 2022, making him a natural candidate to run it back this season.
The 27-year-old allowed a 1.84 expected batting average and a .292 expected slugging percentage while carrying a 2.70 ERA. However, Cease also posted a 10.4 percent walk rate, which is a concern.
In fact, Cease has carried a double-digit walk rate in three out of the last four seasons while leading MLB in walks in 2022.
The right-hander delivers one of the best sliders in baseball but will need to reign in the free passes if he is going to claim this award.
Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays (+900)
Alek Manoah finished third among Cy Young voting in 2022 after posting a 16-7 record with a 2.24 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.
The 25-year-old will get plenty of run support from the Blue Jays offense and is deserving of his placement among the betting favorites.
See the latest MLB futures odds and picks
- World Series Predictions & Odds
- AL MVP Predictions & Odds
- AL Cy Young Predictions & Odds
- NL MVP Predictions & Odds
AL Cy Young Sleeper 2023
Cristian Javier, Houston Astros (+1200)
Over 30 games in 2022, Javier boasted a 2.54 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with a 33.2% strikeout rate.
There may be regression concern from a .228 BABIP, but Cristian Javier limits hard contact, conceding a .168 expected batting average and .286 expected slugging percentage.
If the 25-year-old can tally enough innings, he is a fascinating dark horse for the AL Cy Young.
