AL Cy Young Odds & Predictions 2022 | American League Cy Young Award Futures Bets

Posted: Aug 1, 2022Last updated: Aug 12, 2022

The AL Cy Young competition has tightened into a two-horse race as we enter August.

In one corner we have young lefty Shane McClanahan from Tampa Bay, who’s already making a run at the award in just his second MLB season.

In the other corner, there’s grizzled veteran Justin Verlander, who’s shooting for the third Cy Young of his illustrious career.

Which one will come out on top? Will someone else emerge to steal the award out from under them?

Let’s dive into our 2022 AL Cy Young predictions and best bets.

AL Cy Young Odds 2022

AL Cy Young MLB betting odds are current as of Aug. 1, 2022, from Caesars Sportsbook.

  • Justin Verlander, SP, Houston Astros (+170)
  • Shane McClanahan, SP, Tampa Bay Rays (+200)
  • Dylan Cease, SP, Chicago White Sox (+600)
  • Shohei Ohtani, SP, Shohei Ohtani (+700)
  • Gerrit Cole, SP, New York Yankees (+2000)
  • Alek Manoah, SP, Toronto Blue Jays (+2200)
  • Logan Gilbert, SP, Seattle Mariners (+3500)
  • Kevin Gausman, SP, Toronto Blue Jays (+4000)
  • Nestor Cortes, SP, New York Yankees (+4000)
  • Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Guardians (+6000)

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AL Cy Young Prediction 2022

Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays (+200)

McClanahan has been the betting favorite for much of the season but has stumbled a bit since the All-Star break, allowing Verlander to pass him and causing his ERA to rise to its highest point (2.07) since early June.

Even so, I still think he ends up winning the award. He still leads MLB in WHIP (0.83), owns the best K/BB ratio (6.87) in the American League, and ranks near the top of the league in just about every category.

Given Verlander’s age and recent injury history, I’m siding with youth and backing McClanahan as our MLB bet of the day.

AL Cy Young Contenders 2022

Justin Verlander, Houston Astros (+170)

Nothing, it seems, can slow down Mr. Verlander. Not age (39), time (17 MLB seasons), or the Tommy John surgery that cost him virtually all of 2020 and 2021.

McClanahan’s ratios are a touch better and he has a significant edge in strikeouts, but Verlander leads MLB with 14 wins and a 1.81 ERA. They’ve thrown nearly the same number of innings, too, so it’s incredibly close.

If you prefer advanced metrics, then McClanahan’s probably your guy. But if you value old-school stats and narrative more (Verlander is coming back from injury and plays for the better team), Verlander’s case may be a bit more compelling.

Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox (+600)

Cease has rocketed up the Cy Young rankings thanks to one of the best runs a pitcher has ever had. The White Sox righty has allowed just four earned runs over his last 12 starts combined, posting an absolutely absurd 0.51 ERA with 90 strikeouts in 70 innings during that stretch.

With his ERA now down at 2.01 and his 12.4 K/9 leading MLB, Cease is making a strong push for the award. The only thing that may hold him back is his walk rate, as he’s currently issued the most free passes (50) in MLB.

If he can somehow get that under control and maintain his recent momentum, Cease will have a very interesting case for this award.

See the latest MLB futures odds and picks

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels (+700)

The Angels have been a mess all summer, but it’s not Ohtani’s fault.

While the two-way superstar has regressed somewhat at the plate, he’s having the best pitching season of his sensational career thus far. He’s racked up double-digit strikeouts in six straight starts, boosting his K/9 to an impressive 13.1.

The reigning AL MVP hasn’t been quite as dominant as the frontrunners for this award, but his 2.37 FIP suggests he’s not far off.

AL Cy Young Sleepers 2022

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees (+2000)

Cole’s 3.30 ERA is the highest of the candidates I’ve discussed here, but he does lead MLB in strikeouts with 162.

If Cole can shave a run off his ERA over the next two months while maintaining that lofty K rate, he’ll be in the conversation when it’s all said and done.


Tyler Maher

Tyler Maher is a Content Editor for The Game Day, where he edits and writes for the site. Prior to joining The Game Day, he was a fantasy baseball writer and social media editor for A graduate of Tufts University, Tyler is a die-hard Boston sports fan who can't wait for the next duck boat parade.

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