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NL Cy Young Odds & Best Bets 2023

Last Updated: 2 days ago

Miami Marlins ace Sandy Alcántara ran away with the 2022 Cy Young Award in the National League. The right-hander posted a 2.28 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 228 2/3 innings with 207 strikeouts.

The competition will get much tougher in 2023 after Justin Verlander, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, joined the National League this offseason when he signed with the New York Mets.

Let’s take a look at our updated 2023 NL Cy Young Award predictions and best bets.

NL Cy Young Odds 2023

NL Cy Young MLB betting odds are current as of Monday, March 27, from Caesars Sportsbook.

  • Justin Verlander (+500)
  • Corbin Burnes (+500)
  • Sandy Alcántara (+550)
  • Max Scherzer (+700)
  • Spencer Strider (+800)
  • Julio Urías (+1100)
  • Aaron Nola (+1200)
  • Zac Gallen (+1400)
  • Max Fried (+1500)
  • Zack Wheeler (+1800)
  • Brandon Woodruff (+2200)
  • Yu Darvish (+2500)
  • Logan Webb (+2500)
  • Joe Musgrove (+2500)
  • Blake Snell (+3300)
  • Kyle Wright (+4000)
  • Clayton Kershaw (+4500)
  • Tony Gonsolin (+4500)

The National League East takes up seven of the top nine spots among favorites for the Cy Young Award, but the best bet for the award might be Milwaukee Brewers ace Corbin Burnes.


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NL Cy Young Prediction 2023

Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers (+500)

Burnes is dominant across the board and has everything you would want in a Cy Young candidate.

Entering his age 28 season, the Brewers ace is among the league leaders in K%, Whiff%, and Chase Rate. In addition, Burnes has an impressive arsenal that has three offerings with a Whiff rate above 46.7% (Curveball, Changeup, Slider).

If Burnes can combine his 2021 dominance with his 2023 workload, there will be no stopping him.

NL Cy Young Contenders 2023

Justin Verlander, New York Mets (+500)

The 39-year-old Verlander is fresh off his third Cy Young Award-winning season after posting a 1.75 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 175 innings in Houston with 185 strikeouts.

Verlander has not recorded an ERA below 3.00 since 2017 and boasts a WAR of over six in his last three full seasons.

The future Hall of Famer is likely heading for an age cliff at some point, but after his incredible 2022 campaign, I highly doubt it is going to happen this season.

Sandy Alcántara, Miami Marlins (+550)

The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner only carries a career 21.9% strikeout rate (23.4% in 2022), but more than makes up for it with volume and a 53.4% ground ball rate.

Alcántara has a “6+4+3=2" tattoo for a reason. The Marlins ace is a master of weak contact and has combined that with an above-average chase rate over the last two seasons to become a lethal starting pitcher.

While it’s possible that Alcántara may require a heavy workload in order to post adequate Cy Young numbers, there is no reason to believe he won’t. The 27-year-old has tossed 228 2/3, 205 2/3, and 197 1/3 innings over his last three full seasons.

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies (+1200)

Aaron Nola is about as consistent as a starting pitcher can get, posting a FIP over 3.37 just once since 2016.

The Phillies ace tossed 205 frames last season with a 3.25 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 0.96 WHIP, 29.1% strikeout rate, and a 3.6% walk rate.

If Nola can get a bit of BABIP luck to go with his already stellar skill set and workload, there is no reason he could not make a serious run for the Cy Young.


See the latest MLB futures odds and picks


NL Cy Young Sleeper 2023

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks (+1400)

The Diamondbacks ace finished fifth in the NL Cy Young voting last season after posting a 12-4 record with a 2.54 ERA and NL-leading 0.91 WHIP.

Zac Gallen has a devastating curveball that held opponents to a .174 average and carried a minus-13 run value on Statcast. In addition, Gallen recorded a scoreless streak of 44 1/3 innings in 2022, the seventh-longest streak of the Live Ball Era.

The 27-year-old would have a much larger spotlight if he were not hidden in the Arizona desert.

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers (+2200)

Odds were +5000 when originally published.

To be honest, +5000 for Brandon Woodruff seems like a misprint.

The Milwaukee right-hander is consistently productive, posting an ERA of 3.05, 2.56, and 3.05 over the last three seasons while recording a WHIP of 1.07, 0.96, and 0.99.

If Woodruff can find a way to post 180-plus innings this year, he could easily be in the conversation for the NL Cy Young Award.

Author

Matt Williams

Matt Williams is the Lead MLB Editor for The Game Day, formerly of The Athletic and NBC Sports. Matt is the former host of the Turn Two Podcast and champion of both Tout Wars and the Kings Classic fantasy expert leagues. He has been nominated for an FSWA award and is known for his analytical breakdown threads on Twitter.

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