NL Cy Young Odds & Predictions 2022 | National League Cy Young Award Futures Bets
@tannerstruthBetting baseball is a labor of love. It’s a daily grind that involves hours of capping and loads of unpredictability and variance.
That said, capping the futures market is the best part of the year. While tying up your money for a sixth-month period isn’t attractive to many public bettors, the futures market is arguably the most enjoyable to beat.
In this article, we’ll break down the NL Cy Young market. Who are the favorites? Who are the sleepers? And which pitcher represents the best value for NL Cy Young?
NL Cy Young Odds 2022
NL Cy Young MLB betting odds are current as of March 29, 2022, from Caesars Sportsbook.
- Max Scherzer, SP, New York Mets (+500)
- Corbin Burnes, SP, Milwaukee Brewers (+600)
- Walker Buehler, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (+900)
- Brandon Woodruff, SP, Milwaukee Brewers (+1100)
- Zack Wheeler, SP, Philadelphia Phillies (+1200)
- Aaron Nola, SP, Philadelphia Phillies (+1800)
- Max Fried, SP, Atlanta Braves (+1800)
- Jacob deGrom, SP, New York Mets (+1800)
- Carlos Rodon, SP, San Francisco Giants (+2000)
- Logan Webb, SP, San Francisco Giants (+2500)
- Sandy Alcantara, SP, Miami Marlins (+2500)
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NL Cy Young Prediction 2022
Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins (+3000) at Caesars
Miami has a great pitching staff. The Marlins’ rotation is young and team-controlled, and every starter has loads of potential.
Alcantara has already started to produce results at the big-league level, earning an All-Star nod in 2019 and leading the majors in starts (33) last year. He’s steadily improved throughout his career as well, lowering his walk rate every year since debuting in 2017 and posting personal bests in several categories last year.
While Alcantara’s 2021 numbers were impressive, he could be headed for an even bigger year in 2022 after finishing last season on fire. Over his final 10 starts, Alcantara compiled a 2.21 ERA, 2.55 FIP, and 80:9 K/BB ratio over 69 1/3 innings.
The 26-year-old is everything you want in a starting pitcher. He’s a workhorse, misses bats, and limits his mistakes. He also has nasty stuff that includes a triple-digit fastball and an improved changeup, which helped him finish in the 95th percentile in chase rate last year.
Alcantara looks like an ace for years to come and appears ready to challenge the NL’s elite hurlers for this award. The talent is there, the innings are there, and the narrative is there.
Plus, at 30-to-1, the value is also there, making this our MLB bet of the day.
Player Prop
+3000
Sandy Alcantara: To Win 2022 NL Cy Young
Bet $20, Payout $620
NL Cy Young Contenders 2022
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers (+800) at Caesars
We’re getting the reigning NL Cy Young winner at 8-to-1. What’s not to like?
I can’t argue against that logic. Burnes is a buzzsaw, leading the majors in ERA (2.43), FIP (1.63), strikeout rate (12.6 K/9), and K/BB ratio (6.9) last season. He only completed 167 innings, but he was so dominant that the award was earned.
Burnes turned his career around by ditching his four-seam fastball in favor of a cutter, which he threw over half the time last season. Opposing batters were completely overwhelmed, posting a measly .199 xBA and .252 xwOBA against it.
Burnes also whiffed over 32% of batters when throwing it while allowing an average exit velocity under 86 mph.
The 27-year-old Brewers ace is elite at everything, but those are two very important points. Strikeouts and exit velocity often work against each other, as harder-throwing pitchers record more strikeouts while allowing a higher exit velocity, and vice-versa.
But Burnes does both, which makes him nearly impossible to score off of.
I’m not going to bet on Burnes to repeat, but we’ve had two repeat performances from Scherzer and deGrom recently. So, maybe it’s worth a bet.
Player Prop
+800
Corbin Burnes: To Win 2022 NL Cy Young
Bet $20, Payout $180
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NL Cy Young Sleepers 2022
Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (+3000) at Caesars
The world was introduced to Webb during the NLDS last year when he turned in two heroic performances against a dominant Dodger lineup.
But the general public doesn’t realize that Webb had been heating up all season.
After a rocky start, Webb posted a 2.40 ERA, a 2.41 FIP, and a 0.98 WHIP over his final 20 starts. He also averaged nearly six innings per start during that stretch, leading the Giants to an incredible 18-2 record during those outings.
It’s rare to see a pitcher strike out more than a batter per inning while also inducing a ground-ball rate over 60%, but that’s exactly what Webb did last year. He also displayed elite control, allowing just 36 walks and nine home runs in 148 1/3 innings.
If Webb pitches as well as he did last year for a whole season, he’ll surely end up in the Cy Young conversation and get the recognition he deserves. I’ll likely bet Webb to win the award at the 30-to-1 pricetag.
Player Prop
+3000
Logan Webb: To Win 2022 NL Cy Young
Bet $20, Payout $620
Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds (+4000) at Caesars
Castillo is coming off a disappointing 2021 in which he led the majors in losses (16), issued the most walks in the NL (75), and saw his strikeout rate sink from 11.4 K/9 to 9.2 K/9 year-over-year.
His numbers were inflated by an ugly two-month stretch to start the season. From June 1 onward, Castillo had a 2.73 ERA with a 3.44 FIP over his final 22 starts while limiting opponents to a .225 batting average.
This is a former All-Star who’s one of the most talented pitchers in the league when he’s right. Look for him to bounce back this year and consider taking him at 40-to-1 here.
Player Prop
+4000
Luis Castillo: To Win 2022 NL Cy Young
Bet $20, Payout $820
