While the AL Cy Young field has been whittled down to a two-horse race between Shane McClanahan and Justin Verlander, the NL race still has a clear frontrunner in Sandy Alcantara.
Can anyone catch him during the dog days of summer? Or will he continue to fend off the competition and take home the hardware?
With that in mind, let’s take a look at our updated 2022 NL Cy Young Award predictions and best bets.
NL Cy Young Odds 2022
NL Cy Young MLB betting odds are current as of Aug. 1, 2022, from Caesars Sportsbook.
- Sandy Alcantara, SP, Miami Marlins (-175)
- Corbin Burnes, SP, Milwaukee Brewers (+650)
- Max Fried, SP, Atlanta Braves (+1100)
- Joe Musgrove, SP, San Diego Padres (+1600)
- Carlos Rodon, SP, San Francisco Giants (+2200)
- Zack Wheeler, SP, Philadelphia Phillies (+2200)
- Tony Gonsolin, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (+2500)
- Max Scherzer, SP, New York Mets (+3000)
- Aaron Nola, SP, Philadelphia Phillies (+5000)
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NL Cy Young Prediction 2022
Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins (-175)
When it comes to this award, Alcantara is head and shoulders above everyone else. His 1.99 ERA is tops in the National League, and nobody in baseball has thrown more innings (149 1/3).
The only potential knock on Alcantara is that he doesn’t miss many bats, but even that may be changing after he racked up 41 strikeouts in 34 innings during July.
Barring injury or a major slump down the stretch, Alcantara is pretty much a lock for this award, making him our MLB bet of the day.
NL Cy Young Contenders 2022
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers (+650)
Burnes won the award last year and has been arguably a hair better this year. He’s improved his ERA from 2.43 to 2.31 and currently leads the NL in strikeouts (160), which he failed to do in 2021. He’s also lowered his WHIP from 0.94 to 0.92.
Perhaps more importantly, Burnes is also on pace to throw considerably more innings than he did last year. After logging 167 frames in 2021, he’s on track to finish with closer to 200 in 2022.
With fewer innings than Alcantara, however, Burnes will have to finish with better ratios to have a legitimate chance of passing him (assuming Alcantara doesn’t get hurt).
See the latest MLB futures odds and picks
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NL Cy Young Sleepers 2022
Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers (+2500)
Gonsolin finally suffered his first loss of the season in late July, but he comes into August with a nearly impeccable 12-1 record and a 2.41 ERA. He also boasts the best WHIP in the NL at 0.90.
The biggest obstacle for Gonsolin is his workload, as he’s only thrown 104 1/3 innings thus far. The record is nice, but he’ll probably need to finish with the league’s top ERA as well to give himself a serious chance.
Max Scherzer, New York Mets (+3000)
Scherzer’s odds would be much shorter if he hadn’t spent a month and a half on the IL, but he’s still playing catch-up.
His ratios are right up there with Alcantara’s or anyone else’s, but his 82 innings are holding him back. Scherzer needs the top candidates to get hurt or drop off precipitously for him to make up enough ground, which is possible but risky.