After last week’s lackluster AFC showdown saw the Browns beat the Steelers 29-17, we have a much more appealing Thursday Night Football matchup to look forward to in Week 4.
The undefeated Miami Dolphins (3-0), led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, will travel to Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati to take on Joe Burrow and the defending AFC champion Bengals (1-2).
We should see much more offense in this game, and hopefully, we’ll avoid any late-game laterals after Cleveland’s last-second score inflicted a bunch of pain on bettors in one of the NFL’s all-time bad beats.
Here are the latest Thursday Night Football odds and my best Miami vs Cincinnati betting tips.
Dolphins vs Bengals Odds
As of Thursday morning, the Bengals are listed as 3.5-point home favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook. That tells us that oddsmakers view these two teams as essentially equals on a neutral field, with Cincinnati getting just above the traditional three-point advantage for hosting this game on a short week.
- Check out all the Thursday Night Football odds for the 2022 season.
Meanwhile, FanDuel’s total sits at 47.5 total points, which is slightly above average for this Week 4 slate.
Dolphins vs Bengals Implied Score
Bengals 25.5, Dolphins 22
Expecting this to be a higher-scoring game makes sense: Miami (27.7 ppg) and Cincinnati (21.3 ppg) rank among the top 10 scoring offenses after three weeks.
Thursday Night Football Pick of the Day
Read more on this top Dolphins vs Bengals bet below.
Thursday Night Football Matchup
This game has all the ingredients for a shootout. It’s almost hard to imagine this game not being played in the 30s when you look at the wide receiver groups that will take the field.
Miami’s dynamic duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle has been sensational through three weeks. Both guys sit in the top three amongst wideouts in receiving yards and have combined for 40 catches, 659 yards, and five touchdowns.
Cincinnati’s defense has been solid, allowing just 310.7 total yards and 18.3 points per game, but that has come against below-average quarterback play in Mitch Trubisky, Cooper Rush, and Joe Flacco. This game will be the secondary’s first true test.
On the other side of the ball, the Bengals can certainly have success as long as the o-line gives Burrow the time to throw. Cincinnati allowed just two sacks in their 27-12 victory over the Jets last week, with one of those coming late in the third quarter when the game was already essentially over.
Miami typically likes to bring pressure — it ranked sixth in blitzes per dropback (39.1%) through the first two weeks — but the defense sat in coverage more often against the Bills and Josh Allen in Week 3. It’ll be interesting to see what approach Dolphins defensive coordinator Josh Boyer takes this week, especially since this Bengals O-line has had trouble holding up.
That said, the decision to bring less pressure may have been a result of the Ravens absolutely shredding Miami’s defense early in Week 2, despite a lack of elite weapons. Miami ranks near the bottom of the league in yards per offensive play allowed (6.3), and we know Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd can make big plays down the field.
This should be a fascinating game, and I’m expecting plenty of points to be scored.
Thursday Night Football Prediction
Bengals 34, Dolphins 24
I’m backing the Bengals to get back to .500 with a win here.
As we’ve seen over the last two weeks, home teams usually have the advantage on Thursday Night Football as they don’t have to travel on a short week.
We’ve also probably made a bit too much of Miami’s 3-0 start to the season, as the Dolphins were dominated all over the box score in their victory over the Bills. Cincinnati’s offensive line will continue to improve with time, and the defense actually did a pretty good job limiting Hill across two matchups last season against the Chiefs.
Thursday Night Football Bet Tips
Here are a few betting trends to consider before making your Dolphins vs Bengals bets:
- Home teams are 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS on Thursday Night Football this season, while the Over is 1-1 after hitting last week.
- Despite the wacky Week 3 TNF hit on the Over, primetime Unders are 7-2 on the year heading into Monday Night Football.
- Miami was 2-2-1 ATS as a road underdog last season, while the Bengals were 3-3 as a home favorite.
Thursday Night Football Best Bets
Over 47.5 Total Points (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Miami’s defense was lucky to concede just 19 points against the Bills on Sunday, as the unit allowed 497 total yards. In the second half, Buffalo had an 87-yard drive that resulted in a field goal, then drove 60 yards to miss a short field-goal attempt, and then had a 17-play, 78-yard drive stall at the Miami 2-yard line.
Sure, you’ve got to give credit to the Dolphins for bending and not breaking, but Buffalo also had plenty of chances to win that game and score more points. As long as the offensive line holds up, Cincinnati should be able to convert a few more of those opportunities into points.
On the other side, the Bengals are only allowing 4.8 yards per play, but we’ve already discussed the woeful offenses they have faced thus far. Miami should be able to contribute to the total as well.
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Bengals -3.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
If you kept your eye on this column, you would have already invested in the Bengals when they were shorter favorites in this matchup. Even though the spread is now sitting above a key number, I still think this is still a sell-high spot on Miami.
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Thursday Night Football Props
Joe Burrow: Over 268.5 Passing Yards (-113) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Burrow has exceeded this threshold in two of Cincinnati’s first three games, including in last week’s comfortable win over the Jets. The third-year pro has been excellent against the blitz in his young career, so if Miami decides to dial up the pressure they typically do, Burrow will make them pay for it by getting the ball out quickly to his elite trio of wideouts.
The Dolphins have surrendered the second-most passing yards per game (297.7) so far this year, and will likely have trouble containing this offense on Thursday night.
Thursday Night Football Parlay
Best TNF Same-Game Parlay (+422) at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Bengals Moneyline
- Over 47.5 Total Points
- Joe Burrow: 250+ Pass Yds
- Ja’Marr Chase: 50+ Rec Yds
- Tyreek Hill: 50+ Rec Yds
WAGER: 1 Unit
This TNF same-game parlay correlates a lot of the plays we outlined above, while mixing in each of the team’s top receivers to get over a relatively low bar.
I like Hill to win his much-discussed matchup with Bengals corner Eli Apple, who had some choice words for the receiver on social media after eliminating the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game last year.
Tagovailoa said on Wednesday he would look to get Hill the ball if Apple lines up in 1-on-1 coverage, and I’m taking his word on that.