Thursday Night Football returns to Lambeau Field in Week 3, with the Green Bay Packers hosting the Atlanta Falcons in a matchup between two teams looking to build momentum early in the 2026 NFL season.
The Packers enter Thursday’s game with a 1-1 record after pulling out a 20-17 overtime victory over the New York Jets in Week 2. Meanwhile, the Falcons are still searching for their first win after falling to 0-2 with a 34-3 home loss to the Carolina Panthers.
There will be plenty of attention on Atlanta quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who is set to make his first start of the season after recovering from a torn ACL. Penix will look to get an offense featuring Bijan Robinson going against a Green Bay team led by Jordan Love. The matchup kicks off Thursday, Sept. 24 at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video, with the Packers playing their first home game of the season.
Below, I’ll take a look at the latest Falcons vs. Packers odds and make my TNF predictions for Week 3.
Updated TNF Odds Comparison
All NFL odds referenced for these TNF Week 2 predictions are current as of Wednesday, Sep. 23, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
TNF Implied Score & Team Totals
Packers 24, Falcons 18.5
Green Bay is projected to score 24 points at home, while Atlanta’s implied total of 18.5 points reflects the Falcons’ offensive struggles through the first two weeks of the season. The Packers are expected to have the advantage on Thursday night, with Atlanta facing a difficult road matchup at Lambeau Field.
Atlanta has scored just 16 points through two games and is coming off a 34-3 loss to Carolina. The Falcons have also failed to run a single offensive play in the red zone this season. Michael Penix Jr. will make his first start since suffering a torn ACL last November, giving Atlanta a chance to get Bijan Robinson and Drake London more involved. However, Green Bay has allowed just 3.9 yards per play through two games, making this a difficult matchup for an offense still trying to find its rhythm.
The Packers have their own offensive concerns, with Jayden Reed ruled out for Thursday’s game. However, Atlanta will be without starting cornerback A.J. Terrell, who has been placed on injured reserve with a groin injury. That gives Jordan Love an opportunity to attack a weakened secondary. The 24-18.5 team-total split reflects Green Bay’s home-field advantage and Atlanta’s offensive struggles, although Penix’s return could give the Falcons a much-needed boost.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Thursday Night Football Prediction
TNF Score Prediction: Falcons 20, Packers 17
I’m betting on a surprising upset at Lambeau Field, with Michael Penix Jr. giving Atlanta’s offense the spark it desperately needs. The Falcons have struggled to move the ball through the first two weeks, but Penix’s return to the starting lineup could be exactly what this team needs to get back on track.
Green Bay, meanwhile, finds itself in a difficult scheduling spot. The Packers are coming off a 20-17 overtime win over the Jets and now have to prepare for Atlanta on a short week. That could work in the Falcons’ favor, especially if they can establish the running game and keep Jordan Love on the sidelines.
The Packers are also dealing with injuries on offense. Wide receiver Jayden Reed and starting guard Aaron Banks have both been ruled out, along with offensive tackle Zach Bako-Bewele. Green Bay struggled to move the ball consistently against the Jets, with Love throwing for just 145 yards despite tossing two touchdowns. Those issues could carry over into Thursday’s game, particularly with such limited time to prepare.
Atlanta has its own injury concerns, including the loss of starting cornerback A.J. Terrell, but I’m expecting a much better offensive performance with Penix under center. Bijan Robinson has already rushed for 236 yards through two games, and the return of Penix should help open things up for Drake London and Kyle Pitts in the passing game. If the Falcons can establish the run and avoid the turnovers that plagued them against Carolina, they have a chance to control the tempo and keep this game close.
I expect Penix to provide an immediate boost, with Robinson leading the way on the ground and Atlanta’s defense doing enough to keep Love in check. Look for the Falcons to take advantage of Green Bay’s short week and offensive injuries, pulling off a surprising 20-17 road upset to earn their first win of the season.
Thursday Night Football Bet Tips
Keep these Thursday Night Football bet tips and trends in mind before making your Falcons vs. Packers best bets.
-
Green Bay faces a difficult turnaround after an overtime win. Teams coming off an overtime game on a short week have struggled on Thursday Night Football, going just 6-25 ATS since 2000. The Packers needed overtime to beat the Jets 20-17 on Sunday and now have only four days to prepare for Atlanta.
-
The Packers are dealing with key offensive injuries. Wide receiver Jayden Reed and starting guard Aaron Banks have been ruled out for Thursday’s game. Green Bay struggled to move the ball consistently against the Jets, with Jordan Love throwing for just 145 yards. The short turnaround and injuries could make things difficult for the Packers’ offense.
-
Michael Penix Jr. could provide a much-needed spark for Atlanta. The Falcons have scored just 16 points through two games, but Penix is set to make his first start of the season after recovering from a torn ACL. With Bijan Robinson leading the rushing attack and Drake London and Kyle Pitts providing receiving options, Atlanta has the playmakers to challenge Green Bay and potentially pull off an upset.
Thursday Night Football Best Bets
TNF Over/Under Pick: Falcons @ Packers Under 42.5 Points (-110)
This total feels a little too high, especially with Green Bay dealing with several injuries along its offensive line. Starting guard Aaron Banks has been ruled out, leaving the Packers short-handed up front on a short week following their overtime win against the Jets.
Green Bay managed just 20 points against New York, with Jordan Love throwing for only 145 yards. The Packers could struggle to generate consistent offense against Atlanta, particularly if their depleted offensive line has trouble protecting Love and opening running lanes.
Atlanta also has its share of offensive concerns after scoring just 16 points through two games. While I expect Michael Penix Jr. to provide a spark in his return to the starting lineup, that doesn’t necessarily mean the Falcons will suddenly turn into a high-scoring offense. With Bijan Robinson leading the way, Atlanta could lean heavily on its running game to control the clock and keep Love on the sidelines.
A score like 20-17 or 21-17 would fit the type of game I’m expecting, with both teams relying on their running attacks and struggling to consistently finish drives. With Green Bay’s offensive line banged up and Atlanta still finding its rhythm offensively, I prefer the Under 42.5 as my NFL pick of the day for Thursday Night Football.
TNF Pick Against the Spread: Falcons +5.5 (-110)
I’m backing Atlanta to cover the spread on Thursday night, with the Falcons having a legitimate chance to pull off an outright upset at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay is coming off a 20-17 overtime win over the Jets and now has to prepare for Atlanta on a short week. That is a difficult scheduling spot, especially with the Packers dealing with injuries along their offensive line. With starting guard Aaron Banks ruled out and wide receiver Jayden Reed also unavailable, Jordan Love could have trouble generating consistent offense.
The Falcons have struggled through their first two games, but I’m expecting a much better performance with Michael Penix Jr. returning to the starting lineup. His presence should give Atlanta’s passing game a boost, while Bijan Robinson has the ability to control the tempo on the ground and keep Green Bay’s offense off the field.
I also expect this to be a relatively low-scoring game, which makes getting 5.5 points even more appealing. The Packers may have trouble pulling away if their offensive line struggles, and Atlanta has enough offensive talent to keep this matchup competitive throughout.
Look for Penix to provide the spark Atlanta needs while Green Bay struggles to overcome its short week and injury concerns. I’m taking the Falcons +5.5, with Atlanta pulling off a 20-17 upset on Thursday Night Football.
Thursday Night Football Prop Bet
TNF Prop: Drake London Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
I’m expecting Drake London to have a big game on Thursday night with Michael Penix Jr. returning to the starting lineup. London does some of his best work with the gunslinger under center, as Penix isn’t afraid to push the ball downfield and give his top receiver opportunities to make contested catches.
Atlanta’s offense has struggled through the first two weeks, but Penix’s return should help get the passing game back on track. London has the size and ability to win downfield, and I expect Penix to look his way early and often as the Falcons try to pull off an upset at Lambeau Field.
- Sign up for The Game Day Newsletter to get the latest bet tips and sportsbook promos.
Green Bay is also coming off an overtime win against the Jets, giving its defense only a few days to recover before Thursday’s matchup. If Atlanta can establish the running game with Bijan Robinson, that should open up opportunities for London in the passing game.
With Penix back under center and the Falcons needing a much better offensive performance, I’m expecting London to be heavily involved throughout the game. I like the Over on 64.5 receiving yards as my top TNF player prop.
Thursday Night Football Parlay
Best TNF Same-Game Parlay (+300)
- Falcons ML (+205)
- MarShawn Lloyd Under 25.5 Rush Yards (-114)
I’m backing Atlanta to pull off an upset on Thursday night, and the line movement suggests the Falcons could be a dangerous underdog. Green Bay opened as a seven-point favorite, but the spread has moved to 5.5 points. I already like Atlanta to cover, so I’ll take the moneyline here to get a bigger payout.
The Packers are coming off an overtime win against the Jets and now have to prepare for Atlanta on a short week. Green Bay is also dealing with injuries along its offensive line, which could make it difficult to establish the running game and protect Jordan Love.
Meanwhile, Michael Penix Jr. is returning to the starting lineup for Atlanta. I’m expecting him to provide a much-needed spark for an offense that has struggled through its first two games, giving the Falcons a legitimate chance to win outright.
The second leg targets MarShawn Lloyd, who appears to be getting phased out of Green Bay’s offense. After rushing 13 times for 37 yards in Week 1, Lloyd saw his workload drop to just six carries for 20 yards against the Jets. He’s averaging only 3.0 yards per carry through two games, and the Packers have other options in the backfield.
Green Bay’s injury-plagued offensive line could make things even more difficult for Lloyd. If the Packers struggle to establish the run and Atlanta keeps the game competitive, Lloyd may not get enough opportunities to clear 25.5 rushing yards.
Combining Falcons ML with Lloyd Under 25.5 rushing yards gives us a way to back an Atlanta upset while accounting for a game script where Green Bay struggles to move the ball consistently. I like the Falcons to win a low-scoring game, with Lloyd playing a limited role in the Packers’ offense.
