Thursday Night Football features an NFC South showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons in Week 5.
The Bucs (3-1) are looking to continue to build their divisional lead, while the Falcons (2-2) will try to keep pace with Baker Mayfield and company.
On this page, we’ll dive into the Buccaneers vs Falcons matchup, including best bets and predictions for this Week 5 game.
Frank Ammirante 2024 TNF Betting Record: 8-3 (+4.77 units)
Buccaneers vs Falcons TNF Odds Comparison
The Falcons are short home favorites as they try to win their second game in a row, this time against a division rival.
All NFL odds referenced below are courtesy as of DraftKings Sportsbook, and current as of Thursday, Oct. 3.
TNF Implied Score & Team Totals
Falcons 23, Buccaneers 20.5
The Falcons came into the season looking like a team with an improved offense, but that hasn’t been the case so far, as they rank 21st in EPA per play.
Meanwhile, the Bucs rank 8th in the same category. The wrong team is favored in this game in my eyes.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Thursday Night Football Prediction
TNF Score Prediction: Buccaneers 23, Falcons 20
Let’s compare these two quarterbacks this season:
Baker Mayfield: 8th in EPA per play
Kirk Cousins: 19th in EPA per play
As you can see above, Mayfield has been the much better passer so far. It’s clear that Cousins isn’t back to regular form following the Achilles injury.
Tampa Bay has impressive wins over Washington, Detroit, and Philadelphia. Their one blemish is a letdown game vs the Broncos.
Atlanta has been able to squeak by New Orleans and Philadelphia, but they haven’t been impressive. This offense looks out of sync.
Thursday Night Football Bet Tips
Keep these bet tips and trends in mind before making your Buccaneers vs Falcons bets.
- The Bucs have won six of the last eight meetings vs the Falcons.
- Vita Vea is back for Tampa, which bolsters their run defense.
- However, the Bucs are missing Antoine Winfield and Calijah Kancey.
- On the other hand, the Falcons are pretty much fully healthy.
Thursday Night Football Best Bets
TNF Over/Under Pick: Buccaneers @ Falcons Under 43.5 Points (-110)
This has the look of a sloppy game on a short week on Thursday Night Football between two division rivals.
The Falcons scored 26 points last week, but seven of those came on a pick-six. Their offense has now failed to eclipse 20 points in three of four games.
On Thursday Night Football, I’m betting on more of the same here. Ride with the Under in our NFL play of the day.
TNF Pick Against the Spread: Buccaneers +2 (-112) at Falcons
As mentioned above, the Bucs have been the better team so far. Baker Mayfield continues to play like a Pro Bowl quarterback, while Kirk Cousins has struggled.
I’m rolling with the team with the advantage under center right now.
The only reason why the Falcons are favored is because they’re at home.
Thursday Night Football Prop Bet
Rachaad White: Over 60.5 Rush+Rec Yards (-115)
While rookie Bucky Irving has gotten a lot of hype recently, Rachaad White is still more likely to put up more total yards due to his ability to make an impact in the passing game.
We just saw White put up 84 total yards against the Eagles in Week 4, so 60.5 is an attainable bar.
Even though White struggled vs the Broncos and Lions, that was against a team that just shut down Breece Hall and another with one of the best run defenses in the NFL.
It’s not like Bucky is now the lead back here, either. Last week, White still had 47% of the running back rush attempts along with a 58% snap share.
We’ve seen the Falcons allow big production to Saquon Barkley (116 total yards) and Alvin Kamara (119 total yards) this season.
Thursday Night Football Parlay
Week 5 TNF Best Parlay (+675)
- Kyle Pitts: 50+ Rec YDS (+245)
- Chris Godwin: 80+ Rec YDS (+145)
The Week 5 TNF parlay starts off with a buy low on Kyle Pitts, who is coming off a catch-less performance vs the Saints.
Pitts put up 45+ receiving yards in each game vs the Bucs last year, so perhaps we can finally see him get going here.
Let’s not forget that Pitts had a 50-yard catch vs the Chiefs in Week 3, so it’s not like 50+ receiving yards is a lot to ask.
I’ll finish it off with Chris Godwin to get 80+ receiving yards.
I’m expecting a down game from Mike Evans as he deals with A.J. Terrell. That means we could see Baker Mayfield funnel targets to his favorite slot receiver.
Godwin has 80+ yards in two of four games this season, showing a high ceiling at 117 yards.
