Thursday Night Football heads to Dallas in Week 5, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visiting the Dallas Cowboys in an NFC matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions.
Dallas is coming off a thrilling 34-30 comeback victory over the Houston Texans, improving to 2-2 behind Dak Prescott and an explosive passing attack. Tampa Bay remains winless at 0-4 after falling 17-14 to the Green Bay Packers in Week 4, although its defense has continued to keep games competitive.
The Buccaneers also have a major question at quarterback, with rookie Jalon Daniels set to make his second career start while Baker Mayfield recovers from a thumb injury. That gives Dallas a clear advantage under center, especially with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens capable of stretching the field. However, Tampa Bay’s defense has played well enough to make this matchup more competitive than the records suggest.
The matchup kicks off Thursday, Oct. 8 at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Below, I’ll break down the latest Buccaneers vs. Cowboys odds and make my TNF predictions for Week 5.
Updated TNF Odds Comparison
All NFL odds referenced for these TNF Week 2 predictions are current as of Wednesday, Oct. 7, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
TNF Implied Score & Team Totals
Cowboys 28, Buccaneers 19.5
Dallas is projected to score 28 points at home, while Tampa Bay carries an implied total of 19.5. The 8.5-point gap reflects the Cowboys’ significant advantage on offense, especially with the Buccaneers dealing with uncertainty at quarterback.
Tampa Bay has struggled offensively through the first four weeks, and rookie Jalon Daniels faces another difficult assignment in his second career start. The Buccaneers will likely try to establish the running game and avoid putting too much pressure on their young quarterback. However, that could prove difficult if Dallas builds an early lead and forces Tampa Bay into obvious passing situations.
Dallas has considerably more offensive firepower with Dak Prescott under center. The Cowboys are coming off a 34-point performance against Houston, and their receiving duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens gives them the ability to generate explosive plays. Tampa Bay’s defense has been competitive, but containing Dallas for four quarters will be a challenge.
The 28-19.5 implied score points toward a comfortable Cowboys victory, with Dallas expected to control the game behind its passing attack. Tampa Bay could keep things close early, but the market suggests the Buccaneers may struggle to keep pace if this turns into a high-scoring affair.
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Thursday Night Football Prediction
TNF Score Prediction: Cowboys 28, Browns 17
I’m giving Dallas the edge in this matchup, as the Cowboys’ offense has been firing on all cylinders with Dak Prescott under center. Prescott has developed strong chemistry with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, giving Dallas multiple ways to attack opposing defenses.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is dealing with serious concerns at quarterback. Rookie Jalon Daniels struggled in his NFL debut, and asking him to keep pace with a high-powered Dallas offense on a short week is a tall order.
The Buccaneers’ defense has been competitive, but I expect Prescott and the Cowboys to eventually wear them down. Dallas should be able to build an early lead, force Daniels into obvious passing situations, and take advantage of his inexperience.
Thursday Night Football Bet Tips
Keep these Thursday Night Football bet tips and trends in mind before making your Cowboys vs. Buccaneers best bets.
- Dallas’ offense is firing on all cylinders. The Cowboys rank second in the NFL in scoring and are coming off a 34-30 win over Houston, with Dak Prescott developing strong chemistry with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
- Tampa Bay has serious concerns at quarterback. Rookie Jalon Daniels threw for just 148 yards with two interceptions in his debut against Green Bay, and he’ll now make his first road start on a short week with Baker Mayfield sidelined.
- The Buccaneers are missing key defensive players. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and cornerback Benjamin Morrison are sidelined, leaving Tampa Bay’s secondary vulnerable against one of the NFL’s most dangerous passing attacks.
Thursday Night Football Best Bets
TNF Over/Under Pick: Buccaneers @ Cowboys Over 47.5 Points (-110)
This total looks too low considering how explosive Dallas has been offensively and how poorly its defense has played through the first four weeks. The Cowboys are coming off a 34-point performance against Houston, and Dak Prescott has this passing attack firing on all cylinders.
With CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens giving Prescott two legitimate downfield threats, Dallas should have plenty of opportunities to put points on the board. The Cowboys have already shown they can score in bunches, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them reach 30 points again on Thursday night.
The bigger question is whether Tampa Bay can contribute enough offensively to push this game over the number. Rookie Jalon Daniels struggled in his debut, but Dallas’ defense has been vulnerable enough to make even an inexperienced quarterback dangerous. The Buccaneers don’t need Daniels to light up the scoreboard. They just need him to make a few plays against a defense that has struggled to get stops.
The Cowboys could do most of the heavy lifting here. If Dallas scores 30 points, Tampa Bay only needs 18 to cash this bet. Even a 28-20 final would be enough, which doesn’t seem like much to ask given the way Dallas has been playing.
With the Cowboys capable of scoring at will and their defense struggling to contain opposing offenses, I like Over 47.5 points on Thursday Night Football.
TNF Pick Against the Spread: Cowboys -8.5 (-110)
I’m backing Dallas to cover the spread on Thursday night, as the Cowboys have a significant advantage on offense against a Tampa Bay team that has struggled through the first four weeks.
Dallas is coming off a 34-30 win over Houston, with Dak Prescott continuing to play at a high level. The Cowboys have been firing on all cylinders offensively, and the combination of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens gives Prescott two dangerous weapons who can take over a game.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is dealing with a difficult situation at quarterback. Rookie Jalon Daniels struggled in his NFL debut against Green Bay, and things won’t get any easier in his first road start on a short week. The Buccaneers have struggled to move the ball consistently, and falling behind early could force Daniels to throw more often than Tampa Bay would prefer.
My biggest concern with laying 8.5 points is Dallas’ defense, which has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses this season. However, this is a favourable matchup against an inexperienced quarterback who has yet to show he can consistently move the offense downfield.
I expect Prescott and the Cowboys to build an early lead and put pressure on Daniels to keep pace. Tampa Bay may have some success against this vulnerable Dallas defense, but I don’t see the Buccaneers scoring enough to make this a close game.
I’m taking Cowboys -8.5, with Dallas pulling away for a 34-20 victory on Thursday Night Football.
Thursday Night Football Prop Bet
TNF Prop: Jalon Daniels Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
I’m backing Jalon Daniels to clear 46.5 rushing yards on Thursday night in a favourable matchup against a Dallas defense that has struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks.
Daniels showed off his mobility in his first NFL start against Green Bay last week, rushing for 55 yards on eight carries. While he struggled as a passer, throwing for just 148 yards with two interceptions, his ability to extend plays with his legs was one of the few bright spots for Tampa Bay.
That rushing production is particularly encouraging heading into this matchup. Daniels doesn’t need designed quarterback runs to get involved on the ground. If his first start was any indication, he’s willing to scramble when his initial reads aren’t available.
The matchup makes this prop even more appealing. Dallas has allowed an NFL-high 188 rushing yards to quarterbacks through four games, including 69 to Jayden Daniels, 54 to Jaxson Dart and 50 to Lamar Jackson. The Cowboys have consistently struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks, which plays directly into Daniels’ strengths.
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I also expect Tampa Bay to be playing from behind, which could create additional scrambling opportunities as Daniels drops back more frequently. With the Cowboys struggling to maintain their pass-rush lanes, he should have opportunities to escape the pocket and pick up yards when plays break down.
Daniels already cleared this number in his first start, and the matchup is even better this week. I’ll take Over 46.5 rushing yards (-110) against a Dallas defense that has been particularly vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks.
Thursday Night Football Parlay
Best TNF Same-Game Parlay (+122)
- Cowboys ML (-470)
- Over 47.5 (-115)
I’m already backing Dallas to cover the 8.5-point spread, but I prefer using the moneyline in this same-game parlay. Taking Cowboys ML gives us some insurance in case Tampa Bay keeps things competitive, and Dallas wins by only a touchdown.
The Cowboys’ offense has been firing on all cylinders with Dak Prescott under center, and I’m expecting another strong performance against the Buccaneers. With CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens making plays downfield, Dallas should have enough firepower to take care of business at home.
The second leg is Over 47.5 points, which I also like as a straight bet. Dallas has been scoring at a high rate, but its defense has struggled to get stops. That combination has created plenty of high-scoring games, and I expect a similar script on Thursday night.
Tampa Bay has concerns at quarterback with rookie Jalon Daniels, but the Cowboys’ defensive struggles should give him opportunities to move the ball. Daniels can also make plays with his legs, which could help the Buccaneers sustain drives and contribute enough points to push this game over the total.
Combining Cowboys ML with Over 47.5 gives us some protection on the spread while sticking with my expectation of a high-scoring game. A 28-20 Dallas victory would cash both legs, even though it wouldn’t cover the 8.5-point spread.
