Thursday Night Football heads to Denver in Week 6, with the Seattle Seahawks visiting the Denver Broncos in an intriguing matchup between two 3-2 teams looking to strengthen their playoff positioning.
Seattle is coming off a frustrating 32-29 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, with four turnovers proving costly despite another strong performance from Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Denver, meanwhile, improved to 3-2 with a 23-17 road victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, although Bo Nix struggled once again, throwing for just 123 yards.
The Seahawks have one of the NFL’s best defenses, ranking second in defensive EPA per play and EPA per dropback allowed. That could spell trouble for Nix, who has struggled to generate consistent production through the air. However, Seattle’s offense has been turnover-prone, while Denver’s defense remains dangerous despite injuries to Patrick Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga.
The matchup kicks off Thursday, Oct. 15 at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado. Below, I’ll break down the latest Seahawks vs. Broncos odds and make my TNF predictions for Week 6.
Updated TNF Odds Comparison
All NFL odds referenced for these TNF Week 2 predictions are current as of Thursday, Oct. 15, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
TNF Implied Score & Team Totals
Seahawks 21.5, Broncos 19
Seattle is projected to score 21.5 points on the road, while Denver carries an implied total of 19. The 2.5-point difference reflects what oddsmakers expect to be a competitive, low-scoring matchup between two teams with strong defenses.
Seattle has one of the NFL’s best defensive units, ranking second in EPA per play and EPA per dropback allowed. That’s a difficult matchup for Bo Nix, who is coming off a disappointing performance against the Chargers, throwing for just 123 yards. Denver could struggle to move the ball consistently, especially if Seattle shuts down the running game and forces Nix into obvious passing situations.
The Seahawks have offensive concerns of their own, particularly after committing four turnovers against San Francisco last week. However, Denver’s secondary is dealing with significant injuries, with Patrick Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga expected to miss the game. That could create opportunities for Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has been one of the NFL’s most productive receivers this season.
The 21.5-19 implied score suggests neither offense is expected to have much success. Seattle has the better defensive matchup, but Denver’s home-field advantage and ability to pressure Darnold could keep this close throughout.
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Thursday Night Football Prediction
TNF Score Prediction: Seahawks 23, Broncos 17
I’m backing Seattle to win this matchup, as the Seahawks have one of the NFL’s best defenses and should be able to take advantage of Bo Nix’s struggles. Seattle ranks second in defensive EPA per play and EPA per dropback allowed, making this a nightmare matchup for a quarterback who has struggled to move the ball consistently.
Nix is coming off a disappointing performance against the Chargers, throwing for just 123 yards. Denver’s passing offense has been ineffective for much of the season, and I don’t see things getting much better against a defense that has consistently shut down opposing quarterbacks.
The Broncos have a strong defense of their own, but injuries to Patrick Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga could create opportunities for Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I expect Seattle to generate enough offense to build a lead, forcing Nix into obvious passing situations where the Seahawks’ defense can take over.
Thursday Night Football Bet Tips
Keep these Thursday Night Football bet tips and trends in mind before making your Seahawks vs. Broncos best bets.
- Seattle has an elite defense. The Seahawks rank second in defensive EPA per play and EPA per dropback allowed, creating a difficult matchup for Bo Nix.
- Bo Nix continues to struggle. The Broncos quarterback threw for just 123 yards against the Chargers last week, while Denver ranks 25th in offensive EPA per dropback.
- Denver’s secondary is depleted. Patrick Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga are expected to miss the game, creating opportunities for Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Thursday Night Football Best Bets
TNF Over/Under Pick: Seahawks @ Broncos Under 40.5 Points (-108)
I’m backing the Under in this matchup, primarily because I don’t trust Bo Nix to generate much offense against Seattle’s elite defense. The Seahawks rank second in defensive EPA per play and EPA per dropback allowed, making this one of the toughest matchups Nix has faced all season.
Nix is coming off another disappointing performance, throwing for just 123 yards against the Chargers. Denver managed only 224 total yards in that game, continuing a concerning trend for an offense that has struggled to sustain drives. I don’t see Nix suddenly turning things around against a defense that’s been shutting down opposing quarterbacks.
Seattle could have some offensive struggles of its own. The Seahawks committed four turnovers against San Francisco last week, while Denver ranks fourth in defensive EPA per dropback allowed. Even with Patrick Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga sidelined, the Broncos have enough defensive talent to make life difficult for Sam Darnold.
The total has already dropped from 43.5 to 40.5, but I still see value in the Under. Denver has gone Under in four of five games this season, and I expect both teams to struggle to sustain drives. Something like a 23-17 Seattle victory would cash this bet, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Broncos scored even fewer points.
TNF Pick Against the Spread: Seahawks -2.5 (-112)
I’m backing Seattle to cover the spread on Thursday night, as the Seahawks have a clear advantage defensively against a Denver offense that has struggled to find consistency with Bo Nix under center.
Seattle is coming off a frustrating 32-29 loss to San Francisco, but the Seahawks were competitive despite committing four turnovers. Sam Darnold needs to do a better job protecting the football, especially against a Denver defense that ranks fourth in EPA per dropback allowed.
What gives me confidence in Seattle is the matchup against Nix. The Broncos quarterback has struggled to push the ball downfield, and Seattle’s ability to shut down opposing rushing attacks could make Denver’s offense even more one-dimensional. If the Seahawks force Nix into obvious passing situations, I expect Mike Macdonald’s defense to take advantage.
Denver’s injuries in the secondary are another factor. With Patrick Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga expected to miss the game, Jaxon Smith-Njigba could find opportunities against a depleted defensive backfield. He’s been one of the NFL’s most productive receivers this season, giving Darnold a reliable option when Seattle needs to move the chains.
My biggest concern is Denver’s home-field advantage and its ability to pressure Darnold. However, laying just 2.5 points gives Seattle some flexibility in what should be a competitive game.
I expect the Seahawks to make enough plays on both sides of the ball to secure a 23-17 victory, covering the 2.5-point spread.
Thursday Night Football Prop Bet
TNF Prop: Bo Nix Under 197.5 Passing Yards (-111)
I’m backing Bo Nix to finish Under 197.5 passing yards on Thursday night against a Seattle defense that has been outstanding against opposing quarterbacks this season.
Nix has struggled to generate consistent production through the air, clearing this number just once in five games. He’s coming off another disappointing performance against the Chargers, completing 16 of 27 passes for only 123 yards. Denver managed just 224 total yards, highlighting the offense’s ongoing struggles.
The matchup makes this prop even more appealing. Seattle hasn’t allowed a single quarterback to reach 198 passing yards this season, despite facing several capable passing attacks. The Seahawks also rank second in defensive EPA per dropback allowed, making it extremely difficult for opponents to move the ball through the air.
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Seattle’s run defense could make matters worse for Nix. The Seahawks rank third in defensive EPA per rush, which could force Denver into obvious passing situations. That would allow Mike Macdonald to dial up pressure and disguise coverages against a quarterback who has struggled with efficiency.
One concern is that Denver could fall behind and be forced into a pass-heavy game script. However, additional attempts don’t necessarily translate into more passing yards, especially against a defense that has consistently limited explosive plays.
With Nix clearing 197.5 passing yards only once this season and Seattle holding every opposing quarterback below that mark, I’ll take the Under at -111.
Thursday Night Football Parlay
Best TNF Same-Game Parlay (+214)
- Seahawks ML (-142)
- Under 40.5 (-108)
I’m already backing Seattle to cover the 2.5-point spread, but using the moneyline in this same-game parlay gives me some insurance in case the Seahawks win by only one or two points.
Seattle has a clear defensive advantage against Bo Nix, who has struggled to move the ball consistently this season. The Seahawks rank second in defensive EPA per play and EPA per dropback allowed, making this a difficult matchup for Denver’s passing offense.
The second leg is Under 40.5 points, which I also like as a straight bet. Denver has gone Under in four of five games this season, while Seattle’s defense hasn’t allowed a quarterback to throw for 198 yards in a single game. I expect the Broncos to have difficulty sustaining drives, limiting their scoring opportunities.
Seattle could also struggle to put up points against a Denver defense that ranks fourth in EPA per dropback allowed. With both teams capable of generating pressure, we could see a game where field position and turnovers play a bigger role than explosive offensive plays.
Combining Seahawks ML with Under 40.5 protects against a narrow Seattle victory while staying consistent with my expectation of a defensive battle. A 20-17 Seahawks win would cash both legs, even though it wouldn’t cover the 2.5-point spread.
