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Super Bowl 58 NFL ATS Staff Picks

Last Updated: Jan 30, 2024

Super Bowl 58 is here and it’s all on the line between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. We’re running out of football season.

Pat Pickens has secured the win as The Game Day’s Staff Pick champ to go along with a victory in our staff fantasy football league. Matt De Lima will finish second, and John Arlia or Frank Ammirante will finish third.

NFL odds used for this analysis were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Monday, Jan. 29, at 10 a.m. ET.

NFL Super Bowl Staff Picks

TGD NFL Staff Writers: Frank Ammirante, John Arlia, Garrett Chorpenning, Matt De Lima, Scott Engel, Jeff Hicks, Pat Pickens, Sam Wagman, Matt Williams

Caps Off Podcast hosts: Felipe Fontes, Matan Mann, Adam Tabatchnick

Super BowlAmmiranteArliaChorpenningDe LimaEngelFontesHicksMannPickensTabatchnickWagmanWilliams
KC vs SF (-1)SFKCKCSFKCKCKCKCSFKCKC

Standings after Conference Championships

  • Pickens 162-116-6
  • De Lima 154-124-6
  • Arlia 150-128-6
  • Ammirante 150-128-6
  • Wagman 147-131-6
  • Engel 145-133-6
  • Williams 143-135-6
  • Tabatchnick 138-140-6
  • Chorpenning 136-142-6
  • Fontes 135-143-6
  • Mann 134-144-6
  • Hicks 134-144-6

Staff Pick Breakdowns

Chiefs vs 49ers -2 (-102)

I believe this game comes down to which team has the better defense that can make a stop when it counts most. The Kansas City secondary has been terrific, and with no disrespect to Brock Purdy, has a better chance of stifling him in the clutch than the 49ers do of stopping Patrick Mahomes.

This will be the best defense that the 49ers have faced in the playoffs, and there won’t be any late comebacks, just Mahomes getting it done at winning time. – SCOTT ENGEL

Chiefs vs 49ers -2 (-102)

Welcome to Super Bowl 58, ladies and gentlemen. Are the 49ers the better team? They aren’t playing like it.

Unless you value the Niners scrambling to get it together in the second half to win by the skin of their teeth instead of winning relatively comfortably like the Chiefs have this postseason.

Ultimately, we’re on the precipice of either Kansas City solidifying its deserved place as the latest NFL dynasty, or the 49ers playing spoiler to America’s Sweetheart and push back the Chiefs’ dynasty talk for another season.

I’ve been a 49ers fan all my life, and I’ve fully embraced my inner homer. Niners win big and stick it to Mahomes, Kelce, and the rest. I won’t have it any other way. – MATT DE LIMA

Chiefs vs 49ers -2 (-102)

It’s fine to say Patrick Mahomes has already beaten Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers in the Super Bowl. But to predict KC to do so again simply implies Mahomes will be playing Brock Purdy directly, and we all know that isn’t the case.

The 49ers have been the best team in football all season, especially when wide receiver Deebo Samuel is healthy. They have arguably the most important player in football, Christian McCaffrey, and an embarrassment of offensive riches that Purdy navigates flawlessly.

Plus, we’ve seen Mahomes run for his life in the Super Bowl before — lest everyone forget KC’s 31-9 beatdown at the hands of the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV.

With Chase Young and Nick Bosa crashing off the edges, plus Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw patrolling the middle of the field, San Francisco’s defense should be able to handle KC’s suspect weapons. – PAT PICKENS

Chiefs vs 49ers -2 (-102)

The 49ers will avenge their Super Bowl LIV loss back to the Chiefs in 2020. Look for the 49ers to take advantage of the Chiefs biggest weakness, which is defending the run.

Kansas City ranked 28th in Rush EPA this season, which plays right into the 49ers strength with McCaffrey on the ground. The Chiefs were lucky that the Ravens inexplicably abandoned the run in the AFC Championship. Don’t expect that to happen with Kyle Shanahan. – FRANK AMMIRANTE

Chiefs +2 (-118) vs 49ers

Are we really doing this?

Kansas City has won three straight road playoff games, including against the top defense in the league, and a book is giving the Chiefs the hook?

Bet against Mahomes and Andy Reid at your own risk. The 49ers offense is good, but as we saw once again pressuring Purdy can lead to a world of hurt.

The Chiefs are pressure masters, and their linebacking corps has the ability to eliminate the middle of the field for Purdy’s checkdowns, arguably his best throw in his arsenal. – JEFF HICKS

NFL Super Bowl Odds for Picks

Keep track of the weekly lines throughout the 2024 NFL postseason:

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TGD Staff

The Game Day's betting and fantasy sports analysts bring you 20+ years of experience.

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