Now two weeks into the season, we all have a little more data to pull from and extrapolate out. There are still far more questions than answers, and half the fun is trying to anticipate what will happen next!
The Game Day’s staff presents their selections for each game against the spread (ATS) and analysis for across key contests. Consider this an in-house ATS pick ’em contest.
We’re tracking the results. Bragging rights and fragile egos are at stake. Yes, it’s going to get serious.
NFL odds used for this analysis were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Tuesday, Sept. 19, at 10 a.m. ET.
NFL Week 3 Staff Picks
TGD NFL Staff Writers: Frank Ammirante, John Arlia, Garrett Chorpenning, Matt De Lima, Scott Engel, Jeff Hicks, Pat Pickens, Sam Wagman, Matt Williams
Caps Off Podcast hosts: Felipe Fontes, Matan Mann, Jack Parodi, Adam Tabatchnick
| Week 3 | Ammirante | Arlia | Chorpenning | De Lima | Engel | Fontes | Hicks | Mann | Parodi | Pickens | Tabatchnick | Wagman | Williams |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG @ SF (-10.5) | SF | SF | SF | NYG | NYG | SF | SF | NYG | NYG | NYG | NYG | SF | SF |
| ATL @ DET (-3.5) | DET | ATL | DET | ATL | DET | DET | DET | ATL | DET | DET | DET | DET | DET |
| BUF (-6.5) @ WAS | BUF | BUF | BUF | BUF | BUF | BUF | BUF | BUF | WAS | WAS | BUF | BUF | BUF |
| DEN @ MIA (-6.5) | MIA | MIA | MIA | MIA | DEN | MIA | MIA | MIA | MIA | MIA | MIA | MIA | MIA |
| HOU @ JAC (-8.5) | HOU | HOU | JAC | HOU | HOU | HOU | HOU | JAC | HOU | JAC | HOU | HOU | JAC |
| LAC (-1) @ MIN | LAC | LAC | MIN | MIN | LAC | MIN | MIN | LAC | LAC | LAC | LAC | LAC | LAC |
| NE (-3) @ NYJ | NYJ | NE | NYJ | NE | NYJ | NE | NE | NE | NE | NE | NE | NYJ | NYJ |
| NO @ GB (-2) | GB | NO | GB | GB | GB | GB | GB | GB | GB | NO | GB | GB | GB |
| TEN @ CLE (-3.5) | CLE | TEN | TEN | CLE | CLE | TEN | TEN | TEN | CLE | TEN | TEN | TEN | CLE |
| CAR @ SEA (-5.5) | SEA | CAR | SEA | SEA | SEA | SEA | SEA | SEA | CAR | SEA | SEA | SEA | SEA |
| IND @ BAL (-8) | IND | BAL | IND | BAL | IND | BAL | BAL | IND | BAL | BAL | BAL | BAL | IND |
| CHI @ KC (-13) | KC | CHI | KC | KC | CHI | CHI | KC | KC | CHI | KC | CHI | CHI | KC |
| DAL (-12) @ ARI | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | ARI | DAL |
| PIT (-1) @ LV | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT | LV | PIT | PIT | PIT | PIT |
| PHI (-5.5) @ TB | PHI | PHI | TB | PHI | TB | PHI | PHI | TB | TB | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI |
| LAR @ CIN (-2) | LAR | LAR | LAR | CIN | CIN | LAR | LAR | CIN | CIN | CIN | CIN | LAR | LAR |
Standings after Week 2
- Fontes 22-9-1
- Arlia 20-11-1
- Mann 17-14-1
- Pickens 17-14-1
- Engel 16-15-1
- Chorpenning 15-16-1
- Tabatchnick 15-16-1
- De Lima 14-17-1
- Wagman 14-17-1
- Parodi 13-18-1
- Williams 12-19-1
- Ammirante 11-20-1
- Hicks 10-21-1
Staff Pick Breakdowns
Titans vs Browns (-3, -110)
The Browns are coming off a tough four-point loss against the Steelers, resulting from two defensive touchdowns that proved to be the difference in this game.
Cleveland should have won that one, but they should bounce back at home against the Titans. The Browns have held opposing quarterbacks to only 4.9 yards per attempt this season.
Their front-seven, led by star edge rusher Myles Garrett, should cause problems for Tennessee’s offensive line, which is one of the worst in the NFL.
Titans’ quarterback Ryan Tannehill has already been sacked eight times in only two games, making this my NFL bet of the day. – FRANK AMMIRANTE
Panthers vs Seahawks (-5.5, -105)
I originally snagged this line yesterday at -4.5 prior to the Monday night games, and it’s already been rewarded by moving to -6.5 in some places.
The Panthers, quite simply, are not a great football team at this stage of the season. They have an alright defense, but they can’t move the ball downfield on offense and will struggle to keep up with solid offensive teams, as we saw in Week 1 against Atlanta.
Seattle is a tough matchup for Carolina, because they can really attack the Panthers defensive weak spot: their secondary. Without Jaycee Horn, all three of the Seahawks’ top-flight wide receivers will eat in this game. – SAM WAGMAN
Steelers (-1, -110) vs Raiders
The Raiders’ home opener may not go exactly as planned. The visiting Steelers are the slightest of favorites, but following their 38-10 loss to the Bills, there’s little room for optimism.
Josh Jacobs will almost certainly have a more productive day on the ground against a paltry Pittsburgh run defense (32nd in yards allowed), but the Steelers’ pass rushers are to be feared. Jimmy Garoppolo is likely to take his first sack of the season, and then some.
Ultimately, this one feels like a toss-up. Neither offense has been all that inspiring, but Pittsburgh’s knack for creating points and scoring opportunities on defense should give the Steelers the lift they need to pull off the win on the road. – GARRETT CHORPENNING
Colts vs Ravens (-8, -108)
The Baltimore defense is once again fierce and has the potential to square off against a rookie quarterback for the second time in three weeks in 2023 No. 4 pick Anthony Richardson.
But I’m taking Baltimore to roll due to the possibility that Richardson doesn’t play since he sustained a concussion during Indy’s 31-20 win over the Texans. I can’t imagine Gardner Minshew striking fear in anyone’s hearts in Charm City.
No matter who is playing quarterback, look for Lamar Jackson and Co. to make plays in the passing game against a Colts defense that’s allowed the fourth-most passing yards through two games. I think Baltimore wins by at least 10 and continues to climb our Super Bowl 58 odds. – PAT PICKENS
Chargers vs Vikings (+1, -110)
Something’s gotta give. Both teams enter their Week 3 contest winless and struggling on defense. The Chargers have allowed 63 points (third-worst) and the Vikings have allowed 54 (eighth-worst).
I’m anticipating a shootout and have to give the edge to Minnesota given their offensive output. Kirk Cousins, perhaps making a darkhorse run into our NFL MVP odds, has already passed for 708 yards and six touchdowns against two good defenses in Tampa Bay and Philadelphia.
Meanwhile, we’re still unsure of Austin Ekeler’s status and the Chargers just feel like a team on the brink of collapse. – MATT DE LIMA
NFL Week 3 Odds for Picks
Keep track of the weekly lines throughout the 2023 NFL season:
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