The Week 14 edition of Sunday Night Football will see Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) welcome the rival Los Angeles Chargers (8-4) to Arrowhead.
Neither team looked all that impressive in its last outing. Kansas City eked out another one-score victory on Black Friday, beating Las Vegas 19-17 in a game where the Raiders would’ve had a chance to win if not for a bad snap in the final seconds. Los Angeles claimed a 17-13 win in Atlanta on Sunday despite managing just 187 total yards of offense.
These AFC West foes tend to bring out the best in each other, so let’s hope the quality of play improves for this highly-anticipated SNF matchup. Let’s examine the latest betting odds for Sunday’s showdown before digging into my Chargers vs Chiefs prediction and best bets.
Updated SNF Odds Comparison
The Chiefs are 11-1 and have won six straight meetings between these two teams, so it’s no surprise they are favored by four points at home.
The Over/Under for this contest is 43 points, making it the third-lowest total on the Week 14 slate.
All NFL odds referenced below are current as of Thursday, Dec. 5, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
SNF Implied Score & Team Totals
Chiefs 23.5, Chargers 19.5
Oddsmakers expect Kansas City (24.1 ppg) and Los Angeles (21.7 ppg) to fall just short of their season-long scoring averages.
That makes sense since the Chargers (first) and Chiefs (eighth) rank among the league’s best scoring defenses, allowing fewer than 20 points per game. The second meeting between divisional opponents tends to be lower-scoring, and the first contest between these two ended 17-10.
Take a look at the best Sunday Night Football odds for the 2024 NFL season.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Sunday Night Football Prediction
SNF Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Chargers 13
The Chiefs can clinch a ninth consecutive AFC West title with a win on Sunday night, and they should get the job done comfortably.
Los Angeles struggled mightily on offense last week in Atlanta, as rookie wideout Ladd McConkey (117 receiving yards) was Justin Herbert’s only reliable option. The Chargers couldn’t run the ball without J.K. Dobbins (sprained MCL), and Quentin Johnston continued to disappoint.
I don’t see how Jim Harbaugh’s squad keeps up with the Chiefs on the road, especially since Steve Spagnuolo’s defense limited the Chargers to 10 points and 224 total yards in Week 4. Los Angeles has made strides under its new head coach, especially on defense, but this roster lacks Kansas City’s talent.
The Chiefs have their vulnerabilities, especially on the offensive line, but Mahomes will extend enough plays with his legs to make some throws down the field.
Sunday Night Football Bet Tips
Consider these bet tips and trends before making your Chargers vs Chiefs bets.
- SNF Unders are 7-4-2 on the season.
- Unders are 8-4 in Los Angeles’ games and 6-6 in Kansas City’s games.
- The Chiefs are 2-4 against the spread as home favorites this season, while the Chargers are 1-1 ATS as road underdogs.
Sunday Night Football Best Bets
SNF Over/Under Pick: Chargers @ Chiefs Under 43 Points (-112)
The Under is a safe bet for this SNF contest.
The first meeting between these two teams featured just 27 points, and we saw both offenses struggle last week against lesser defenses than they will face on Sunday. Kansas City is also onto its third kicker, Matthew Wright, so it wouldn’t be shocking if the Chiefs leave some points out there in what is forecasted to be 10-15 mph winds.
Take this late-season divisional Under as one of your best NFL bets today.
SNF Pick Against the Spread: Chiefs -4 (-110) vs Chargers
Fading the Chiefs as favorites has been a profitable venture in recent weeks, and I was happy to take double-digit points with the Panthers and Raiders in our TGD Staff NFL picks against the spread. However, I think that run comes to an end this week.
The Chargers are overvalued in the market because they’ve played a very favorable schedule. I don’t see how they exploit the vulnerabilities in the KC secondary if McConkey is given extra attention. Los Angeles also ranks 26th in pressure rate, so Mahomes might get more time to throw than he’s had lately.
Andy Reid’s squad has won six straight games in this rivalry, half of which have come by six or more points. With extra rest and no cross-country travel, I like KC to pick up a rare double-digit victory.
Sunday Night Football Prop Bet
Chargers: Under 17.5 Points (+110)
This team total prop feels mispriced.
Los Angeles has scored 17 or fewer points in each of their last three games against the Chiefs. The Chargers have also cashed this prop in three of their four losses this season.
Justin Herbert doesn’t have the arsenal of weapons he used to, so I don’t see how LA gets Over this number without help from its defense or special teams. Take the plus-money odds and run.
Sunday Night Football Parlay
Best SNF Parlay (+108)
- Chiefs ML (-218)
- Under 48.5 (-244)
When constructing my SNF parlays, I play it pretty conservatively. This plus-money bet acts like a modified teaser, giving us some extra wiggle room on the side and total in case the Chiefs sneak out another close win.
