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SNF Predictions Week 4 | Chiefs vs Buccaneers

Posted: 8 hours agoLast updated: 6 hours ago

NFL titans will square off when the Kansas City Chiefs head south to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a rematch of Super Bowl LV on Sunday Night Football.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (2-1) have not played at Raymond James Stadium since they were trounced by the Bucs 31-9 on Feb. 7, 2021. KC is coming off a 20-17 loss to the Indianapolis Colts.

The Buccaneers also fell from the unbeaten ranks in Week 3, losing at home to the Green Bay Packers, 14-12.

Here’s a look at our favorite Kansas City vs Tampa Bay betting tips for Sunday Night Football.

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Odds

The Chiefs opened as a 2.5-point favorite despite playing on the road in a hostile environment in primetime, but that number quickly shifted to Buccaneers -1 by Friday.

The total opened at 45 based on KC’s high-octane offense, and the fact the Buccaneers will likely have Mike Evans back from suspension, but ticked up a half-point to 45.5 by Friday. Tampa Bay is averaging just 17 points per game through three weeks and managed just one TD against the Packers.

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Implied Score

Buccaneers 21.75, Chiefs 20.75

The Chiefs are averaging almost 30 points per game but are surrendering 21.7 points per game and have allowed 20-plus points in each of their first three contests this year. The Bucs lead the NFL in defense, allowing just nine points per game through three weeks. Something will have to give.

Take a look at the best Chiefs odds and Buccaneers odds for the 2022 NFL season.

Sunday Night Football Pick of the Day

Read more on this Chiefs vs Buccaneers bet below.

Sunday Night Football Matchup

Tom Brady and the Bucs’ offense have not yet been unleashed through three weeks. Tampa Bay has scored just 51 points and is averaging fewer than 300 yards of offense per game, and Brady has yet to surpass 275 passing yards in a game this season.

Part of that is Tampa Bay’s lack of skill-position weapons since wide receivers Chris Godwin (hamstring) and Julio Jones (knee) have each only played one game. Plus, Evans was banned for the Packers game after fighting New Orleans safety Marshon Lattimore in Week 2.

Evans should return in Week 4, and given the fact both Jones and Godwin have returned to practice, each should be considered likely to suit up Sunday night.

Plus, the Chiefs coming to town should be extra motivation for Brady and the Bucs need to sharpen up offensively. KC has quietly struggled on offense lately, too, scoring just four offensive touchdowns in its past two games since putting up 44 points in its season-opening win in Arizona.

The Chiefs will need to play better offensively to score against the dominant Tampa Bay defense.

Still, there usually are fireworks when Mahomes and Brady square off. We’ll root for that again.

Sunday Night Football Prediction

Buccaneers 27, Chiefs 21

This is the perfect opportunity for each offense to get going, and Brady and Mahomes tend to bring out the best in each other. The legendary QBs have faced off five times, including the playoffs, and there’s been an average of 56 points per game in those meetings.

Tampa Bay’s defense has been dominant, and Brady should benefit by getting his major offensive weapons back, especially Evans, who has 132 yards on the year. Plus, Brady should have increased faith in receiver Russell Gage, who had 87 yards and a TD against the Packers.

The Chiefs offense has had a hard time with continuity, with Mahomes still trying to get on the same page with new receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. That fact is particularly alarming given that KC had three extra days to prepare for the Colts, yet only put up 17 points and 315 yards of offense.

I still think the game will come down to the last possession, but between KC’s offensive issues, Tampa Bay’s solid D, and the potential absence of KC kicker and X-factor Harrison Butker, the Bucs should be able to win.

Sunday Night Football Bet Tips

Here are some betting trends to consider before making your Sunday Night Football bets:

  • Tampa Bay is 2-3 in its past five home games, including the playoffs, dating back to 2021.
  • Kansas City is 1-2 against the spread this season, including its outright loss in Indy.
  • Brady is 3-2, straight-up and ATS, in his career against Mahomes, including the playoffs.

Sunday Night Football Best Bets

Buccaneers -1 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

If Tampa Bay’s offense is at full steam, the Bucs should be able to win outright. We loved betting Tampa Bay and the spread when it was an underdog, but if you think the Bucs will win you should be able to trust them to cover a point.

Before placing this bet, check out the best Tampa Bay Buccaneers promos.

Over 45.5 Total Points (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

This flies in the face of trends, but as stated above, the Bucs are going to get reinforcements back on offense. The Chiefs have put up points, and this number isn’t crazy high, either. It should hit.

Before placing this bet, check out the best Kansas City Chiefs promos.

Sunday Night Football Props

Buccaneers: Win By 1-13 Points (+165) at FanDuel Sportsbook

This seems like easy money if you believe, as I do, that the Buccaneers are going to win. This game probably won’t be a blowout, and given the lucrative odds, it’s worth a bet.

Leonard Fournette: Anytime Touchdown (+100 or longer) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Fournette hasn’t scored yet, but promised his fantasy football managers a touchdown soon.

The Chiefs have surrendered touchdowns of two yards or less in each of their first three games — granted they’ve been passing scores in each of the past two games. Evans gets heavy targets near the goal line, plus tight end Cameron Brate is a potent red-zone weapon, but this feels like the week Fournette finds the end zone.

Sunday Night Football Parlay

Best SNF Same-Game Parlay (+152) at FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Buccaneers +3.5
  • Over 44.5 Total Points

This suddenly isn’t the most lucrative SGP — the opening odds for it were +202 — but feels like easy money given how things are trending. The Chiefs aren’t likely to win by more than a field goal, and in this parlay a 24-21 Chiefs win would cash our ticket. That seems not only plausible, but likely.

If you’re feeling daring, take the Bucs to win outright + over 44.5 at +200. That seems safe too.

Author

Pat Pickens

Pat Pickens is a seasoned sportswriter who has covered the NHL since 2013 for various websites, including The New York Times, NHL.com, Sportsnet.ca, USA Today, the Associated Press and many others. His debut book, titled "The Whalers" about the history of the NHL's Hartford Whalers, was released in October 2021. His greatest successful wager was an LA Kings puck-line bet (+200) in Game 1 of the 2012 Western Conference Final.

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