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SNF Predictions Week 18 | Bills vs Dolphins

Last Updated: Jan 2, 2024

The AFC East is on the line when the Miami Dolphins host the Buffalo Bills in the season finale of Sunday Night Football.

The surging Bills (10-6) have won four straight and five of six yet have not officially clinched a playoff spot. The Dolphins (11-5) are 2-2 in their past four and have a 1-4 record and minus-84 point differential against teams with a winning record.

Here’s a look at the Buffalo vs Miami odds.

Pat Pickens’ 2023 SNF Betting Record: 34-36 (+0.6 Units)

Bills vs Dolphins Odds

The Bills are a clear favorite despite the fact the game is being played in Miami Gardens.

Bills vs Dolphins Implied Score

Bills 26.75, Dolphins 23.75

Miami leads the NFL in points per game but only managed 20 in its Week 4 loss to the Bills in Orchard Park. The Bills are sixth in points-for (26.9) and fourth in the NFL in points-against (23.1) per game.

Take a look at the best Bills odds and Dolphins odds for the 2023 NFL season.

Sunday Night Football Pick of the Day

Read more on this Bills vs Dolphins bet below.

Sunday Night Football Matchup

The Bills’ roller-coaster season is swinging up, and they’ll know whether they even need to win to qualify for a wild-card berth before they take the field. Still, few teams want to play Buffalo, especially if it finishes as the No. 2 seed since it is 7-2 in Orchard Park this season.

The Dolphins’ season is trending down after their 37-point shellacking in Baltimore, which was somehow more costly than their losing out on both the opportunity to clinch the No. 1 seed and division title. Miami lost game-wrecking pass rusher Bradley Chubb to a torn ACL and may not have wide receiver Jaylen Waddle or running back Raheem Mostert again.

Plus, Buffalo routed Miami by four touchdowns in its first meeting, with quarterback Josh Allen throwing as many touchdowns (four) as incompletions and finishing with a perfect passer rating (158.3).

Sunday Night Football Prediction

Bills 31, Dolphins 23

Allen is 9-2 in his career against the Dolphins and should have won in Miami Gardens last season since Buffalo outgained Miami 497-212 in Miami’s 21-19 victory in Week 4.

The Dolphins’ injuries, including the fact quarterback Tua Tagovailoa left the loss in Baltimore with a shoulder injury, should have a major impact. Miami is tied for 21st in points-against per game (23.1), and even though it may end up with Mostert and Waddle back, Chubb’s injury is a marquee loss especially against an offense as explosive as Buffalo’s.

The Bills have won two straight on the road, with each win coming by exactly two points. Look for them to score a more comfortable win over Miami.

Sunday Night Football Bet Tips

Here are a couple of betting trends to consider before making your Bills vs Dolphins bets:

  • The Bills are allowing 17.5 points per game over their four-game win streak.
  • The Dolphins are averaging 19.4 points in losses and 35 per game in wins.
  • The Under is 13-4 in Sunday night games.

Sunday Night Football Best Bets

Bills -3 (-115)

DraftKings Sportsbook WAGER: 1 Unit

The Dolphins’ home-field advantage has worked all year, since they are 7-1 with only a one-point loss to the Titans as their blemish. But Bills Mafia will surely be well-represented at Hard Rock Stadium, which should make things hard for Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense.

For as dominant as Allen has been against the Dolphins is as poorly as Tagovailoa has played against the Bills. He is 1-5 against Buffalo with a 5/5 TD/INT ratio.

Look for the Bills to get ahead early and hang on late as our NFL bet of the day.

Want to bet on the Bills? Check out the best NY sportsbooks.

Over 50.5 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook WAGER: 1 Unit

For all of Buffalo’s defensive dominance, these are two of the best offenses in football who combined for 68 points in the first game. Barring rain, the weather conditions should be perfect for offense, and there’s been at least 50 points in seven of Miami’s 16 games and three of its home games.

Buffalo should win comfortably, but both sides should be able to put up points.

Want to bet on the Dolphins? Check out the best US sportsbooks.

Sunday Night Football Same-Game Parlay

Best SNF Same-Game Parlay (+176)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units

  • Bills Moneyline (-166)
  • Bills Over 26.5 Points (-120)
  • Over 47.5 Points (-155)

The Bills have surpassed 27 points in four of their past six games, and they have won four of those five games.

There’s been at least 48 points in three of the past four meetings between these teams.

If you’re feeling daring, take the Bills to cover a spread, but I wouldn’t recommend it since they have only won by two points in their past two road victories.

Sunday Night Football Prop Bet

Bills -0.5 1st Quarter (+120)

DraftKings Sportsbook WAGER: 1 Unit

Buffalo has won the first quarter in four of its past six games, including three of its four on its current win streak.

The plus-money odds are due to the potential for the game being tied, but with the way the Bills have started fast lately plus the potential value, this is the prop to target.

SNF Prop Odds Week 18

Track the best ways to bet Sunday Night Football props with us in Week 18.

Buffalo Bills SNF Props

Miami Dolphins SNF Props

Author

Pat Pickens

Pat Pickens is a seasoned sportswriter who has covered pro sports since 2013 for various websites, including The New York Times, NHL.com, Bleacher Report, Sportsnet.ca, USA Today, the Associated Press and many others. His debut book, titled "The Whalers" about the history of the NHL's Hartford Whalers, was released in October 2021.

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