The Dallas Cowboys (12-5) will look to exercise their recent playoff demons with a win on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9).
Despite the Cowboys’ vastly superior record, it’s hard to count out Tom Brady at home in the playoffs.
Can the Cowboys get it done on the road, or will Brady continue his postseason success in what may be his final playoff run with the Bucs?
Let’s dive into the Dallas vs Tampa Bay best bets for this NFC Wild Card matchup.
Cowboys vs Buccaneers Odds
Cowboys vs Buccaneers odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of 10 a.m. ET on Friday, Jan. 13.
The Cowboys are 2.5-point road favorites as they are considered the better team here.
The total sits at 45.5 points, baking in the risk of continued offensive struggles for Tampa, while also considering that the Cowboys’ games tend to be higher scoring.
Cowboys vs Buccaneers Implied Totals
Cowboys 24, Buccaneers 21.5
Bookmakers believe this will be a close game, with Dallas squeaking it out by about a field goal. Remember, these two teams met in Week 1, with the Bucs winning, 19-3.
Cowboys vs Buccaneers Pick of the Day
Read more on this Cowboys vs Buccaneers bet below.
Cowboys vs Buccaneers Prediction
Cowboys 27, Buccaneers 21
We can start off our prediction by looking at DVOA at Football Outsiders:
- Cowboys: fourth Overall (14th Offense, second Defense)
- Buccaneers: 17th Overall (17th Offense, 10th Defense)
As we see here, Dallas is clearly the better team on paper. The Bucs won their division despite finishing with an 8-9 record. Their mediocrity is supported by the data here.
The problem with Tampa is that they’re one-dimensional on offense, ranking 30th in Rush DVOA. That means that Brady could be under pressure often, especially against a Cowboys defense that ranks second in Adjusted Sack Rate.
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The good news for the Bucs is that their pass protection has been elite, ranking first in Adjusted Sack Rate. However, Brady hasn’t been nearly as good this season. His 6.4 yards per attempt is the second-lowest of his career and worst since 2002.
This prediction comes down to whether or not you believe Brady will elevate his game in the playoffs. While that’s certainly a possibility, I’ll take my chances by rolling with the better team with the more well-rounded roster.
Look for the Cowboys to get it done on the road.
Cowboys vs Buccaneers Bet Tips
Here are a few Cowboys vs Buccaneers betting trends to consider before making your bets:
- The Cowboys are 9-7-1 against the spread and 8-8-1 in Over/Unders.
- The Buccaneers are 4-12-1 ATS, Unders are 11-6 in their games.
- Tampa won their Week 1 matchup 19-3.
- Brady is having his worst season since 2002.
Cowboys vs Buccaneers Best Bets
Cowboys -2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The market has overvalued the Bucs all year long, as evidenced by their 4-12-1 record against the spread. Plus, we’re getting the Cowboys at less than three points.
Simply put, Dallas is the better team here. I don’t buy into their recent struggles, especially their loss against the Commanders, where the Cowboys essentially had nothing to play for.
Want to bet on the Cowboys? Check out the best U.S. sportsbooks.
Over 45.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Whenever you take a favorite, there’s more of a correlation with the Over. It also helps that we’ve seen the Cowboys pour on points on several occasions this season.
This is a team that has scored 27 or more points in nine of their last 10 games. If they hit that number again, all we would need is 19-plus points from the Bucs to go Over this total.
Soon you will be able to bet on the Buccaneers with these Florida sportsbooks.