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Cowboys vs Buccaneers Prop Bets

Frank AmmiranteFantasy Sports & Betting Writer
Posted: Jan 13, 2023Last updated: Jan 13, 2023

The Dallas Cowboys take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in an intriguing NFC Wild Card Weekend matchup.

While the Cowboys have the better record, the Bucs have Tom Brady, keeping them as a threat no matter the circumstances.

This is projected to be a close game, making it an ideal environment for props. Blowouts tend to be more difficult because it’s harder to project player usage.

In this article, we’ll dive into the best Dallas vs Tampa Bay player and game props for this Monday night contest.

Before reading Frank Ammirante’s picks, toggle with the widget below for our full list of NFL Wild Card player props:

Cowboys vs Buccaneers Player Props

Tom Brady: Over 42.5 Pass Attempts (-104) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Here we have the perfect combination of an inefficient running game facing a tough rush defense, forcing the team to air it out at a higher rate.

The Bucs rank 32nd in EPA per play in rush offense, while the Cowboys rank fourth in this stat on run defense. That means we’re likely to see more passing volume.

Brady attempted 733 passes in 17 games this season, which was 34 more than second-place Justin Herbert. This is a dink-and-dunk offense, as Brady only averaged 6.4 yards per attempt.

That means more short passes, longer drives, and a lot of pass attempts. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Brady hit 50 pass attempts in this one.

Rachaad White: Under 35.5 Rushing Yards (-131) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

According to Football Outsiders, the Bucs rank 30th in Rush DVOA on offense, while the Cowboys’ run defense ranks fifth.

Tampa Bay is already a pass-heavy offense, with Brady averaging 43.1 attempts per game. Facing a tough run defense could result in even more passing volume.


More Cowboys vs Buccaneers betting plays for Super Wild Card Weekend


White has had an inefficient season, averaging only 3.7 yards per carry. He also shares the workload with Leonard Fournette.

We’ve seen Fournette have a larger workload in recent games, namely against the Cardinals in Week 16, where the veteran had 20 carries and White had only seven.

We could see something similar in the playoffs with the rookie ceding touches to the veteran.

This number opened at 40.5 and has since fallen to 35.5. I’m still willing to roll with the Under given the circumstances.

Chris Godwin: Over 6.5 Receptions (-151) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Godwin has been a target hog for the Bucs this season, racking up 142 in 15 games (9.47 per game).

Brady loves to feed him in the short-to-intermediate passing game, as evidenced by Godwin’s 5.7 average target depth. To put that in perspective, that ranks as the 37th-lowest among players with at least 100 targets.

This is why Godwin has been able to haul in 104 of 142 targets, good for an impressive 73.2% catch rate.

The star wideout has racked up at least seven catches in five of his last six games.

This is a game where we should see a lot of passing volume from Tampa, as Brady tries to get the ball out of his hands quickly against this Cowboys’ pass rush.

That sets up well for Godwin.

Cowboys vs Buccaneers Prop Bets

Cowboys: Win by 1-6 Points (+280) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Cowboys are three-point favorites in this game, so taking them to win by 1-6 points is the most likely outcome.

There’s a good chance that the Bucs keep it close with Brady playing on home field, but I’m still confident that the Cowboys will get the win.

Dallas has been the better team all year, while the Bucs struggled to win one of the worst divisions in the NFL.

We’ll ride with the Cowboys to squeak out a road win at good value with +280 odds.

Author

Frank Ammirante

Before joining The Game Day, Frank spent three years in the fantasy sports and betting industry, writing for websites like RotoBaller and 4for4football. Frank is an active member of the fantasy baseball and fantasy football community, participating in high-stakes leagues like NFBC/NFFC as well as industry competitions like Scott Fish Bowl, RazzBowl, and TGFBI. Frank is a member of the FSWA and IBWAA. Give him a shout to talk fantasy sports and sports betting.

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