Dolphins Futures Odds After Tyreek Hill Trade | Super Bowl, AFC, & Division Bets
@johnarliaThe craziest NFL offseason in recent memory delivered another massive move on Wednesday as the Miami Dolphins acquired wide receiver Tyreek Hill from the Kansas City Chiefs for five draft picks, including a first and second-round selection in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Hill immediately agreed to a four-year, $120 million extension ($72.2 million guaranteed) with the Dolphins, committing his football playing future to South Beach.
The Dolphins desperately needed another wideout to pair up with standout Jaylen Waddle, who led Miami in receptions (104), receiving yards (1,015), and receiving touchdowns (6) in an impressive rookie campaign.
After the Phins signed former Cowboys receiver Cedrick Wilson in free agency and gave tight end Mike Gesicki the franchise tag, this trade for Hill gives Miami an array of pass catchers with different talents, sizes, and speeds.
Now, the pressure is squarely on the shoulders of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to deliver them the ball and take the Dolphins’ offense to the next level.
With Hill now in the mix, can Tua take the next step and lead Miami to the postseason or even Super Bowl 57? What are Miami’s best bets for 2022-2023?
Note: Dolphins futures bet odds are current as of Wednesday, March 23, at 4 p.m. ET. Beware, these NFL odds may continue to shift as sportsbooks adjust after the trade.
Dolphins Super Bowl 57 Odds with Hill
Dolphins to Win Super Bowl 57 (+4000) at Caesars
Before acquiring Hill, the Dolphins were 70-1 longshots to win Super Bowl 57 at Caesars Sportsbook. However, after the deal with Kansas City went down, Miami’s odds were slashed by over 40 percent to (+4000).
Don’t get me wrong, Hill is a tremendous player and a massive upgrade to this offense, but it is a bit surprising to see the odds shift so dramatically for the addition of a non-quarterback.
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Within the last week, we saw the Raiders acquire a similar caliber of wide receiver in Davante Adams, and the Raiders’ Super Bowl odds didn’t budge.
Sure, Las Vegas is situated in the toughest division in the NFL, which certainly has an effect on their route to the postseason, but it’s not like the path through the AFC East is a cakewalk with the defending division champion Buffalo Bills currently installed as the favorites to win Super Bowl 57.
This trade does close the gap between the Dolphins and the New England Patriots, who finished a game ahead of Miami in the standings in Mac Jones’ rookie campaign.
While Caesars currently has the two teams listed at the same odds across the board, I’d probably take the Dolphins’ roster on paper, especially with Hill in Miami and star cornerback J.C. Jackson no longer in New England to cover him.
As nice as the Dolphins’ roster may look, their potential ceiling will solely be determined by Tua Tagovailoa. If Miami can get consistent and occasionally dynamic quarterback play, they’ll be a playoff team in 2022.
If not, the Dolphins will regret not selecting Justin Herbert when they had the chance.
Given the limitations we’ve seen from Tua thus far, especially when it comes to big-time throws down the field, I’m still leaning towards the latter.
Dolphins AFC Championship Odds with Hill
Dolphins to Win AFC Championship (+2000) at Caesars
Even after adding Hill to the offense, Miami is still outside the AFC playoff picture, according to the odds at Caesars. The Dolphins have the 10th-best odds to win the conference in the 2022-23 season, tied with the Patriots at (+2000).
That’s just how deep the AFC is. For reference, the New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles share the same odds to win the NFC next season, but there are only seven teams in front of them on the odds board.
With all of the moving parts, winning the AFC seems a step too many for Miami to take next season. They’ll have a new head coach in Mike McDaniel and a new OC in Mike Smith, which means a new offense for Tua to learn and adjust to, along with his new arsenal of weapons.
It’ll also be interesting to see how Hill operates in an offense without the all-world talents of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce around him. He could certainly still be his dynamic, game-changing self, but it wouldn’t be shocking also to see some frustration if the quarterback play doesn’t live up to his standards.
Dolphins AFC East Division Odds with Hill
Dolphins to Win the AFC East (+400) at Caesars
The Bills remain the favorites to win the AFC East at (-185) and are the largest favorite of any AFC team to win their respective division. The Dolphins (+400) and Patriots (+400) share the second-best odds, with a large gulf separating them and the New York Jets (+2500).
Miami had not won the AFC East since 2008 when Chad Pennington led the franchise to an 11-5 record. You might remember that Dolphins team more like the one that brought the Wildcat offense to the NFL, with Ronnie Brown terrorizing unsuspecting defenses.
That also happened to be the season that Tom Brady tore his ACL, leaving Matt Cassel at the helm in New England. Still, the Patriots also finished 11-5 and lost the division on a tiebreaker.
While that isn’t really relevant right now, the point is that this division has been difficult for the Dolphins and Jets to win over the last 20 years, with each franchise doing so just once over that span.
Brady may not be around to terrorize the rest of the AFC East anymore, but Josh Allen and the Bills have picked up that torch. Buffalo has won the East each of the past two seasons and is rightly plus-money favorites to repeat again this year.
The Bills are more talented, battle-tested, and on the cusp of winning the Lombardi Trophy. Even with all of their offseason additions, the Dolphins will need things to bounce their way to end this drought.
Personally, I wouldn’t be betting it, but if you’re a Miami fan who wants some action, this is probably the most realistic value bet on the board.
prop bet
+400
Dolphins to Win the AFC East
Bet $20, Payout $100
Tyreek Hill 2022 Prop Bets
Tyreek Hill to Win NFL MVP (+12500) at Caesars
Don’t make this bet. A wide receiver has never won NFL MVP honors, and if Cooper Kupp only received one vote for his efforts last season, it’s not happening anytime soon.
Season-long NFL player props should be coming shortly after the NFL Draft, so hold out a little bit longer to make plays on Hill’s stats for the upcoming season.
If you’re desperate to make an MVP bet on a Dolphins player, it’s got to be Tua Tagovailoa at (+7500). Throwing some pocket change on that could be profitable if he takes a giant leap forward with all of the new talent around him.
