Best Dolphins Betting Lines 2023
The Miami Dolphins played a major part in one of the craziest NFL offseasons in recent memory, acquiring wide receiver Tyreek Hill from the Kansas City Chiefs for a haul of five picks ahead of the 2022 NFL Draft.
Miami desperately needed another wideout to pair up with standout Jaylen Waddle, who led the Dolphins in receptions (104), receiving yards (1,015), and receiving touchdowns (6) in an impressive rookie campaign.
After the Phins signed former Cowboys receiver Cedrick Wilson in free agency and handed tight end Mike Gesicki the franchise tag, the trade for Hill gave Miami an array of pass catchers with different talents, sizes, and speeds.
Now, the pressure is squarely on the shoulders of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to deliver them the ball and take the Dolphins’ offense to the next level.
With Hill now in the mix, can Tua take the next step and lead Miami to the postseason or even Super Bowl 57? And what are Miami’s best bets for 2022-2023?
Note: These Dolphins futures bet odds are current as of Monday, Aug. 29, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Fanduel Sportsbook. You can find more odds at these US betting sites. But be careful, as many of these NFL futures odds might shift as we get closer to the 2022 NFL season.
Dolphins Futures Betting Odds
- Win Total: Over 8.5 (-135) / Under 8.5 (+115)
- Make Playoffs: Yes (+142) / No (-174)
- Win AFC East (+450)
- Win AFC Championship (+2000)
- Win Super Bowl 57 (+4000)
🏈 to place any of these Dolphins futures bets at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Dolphins Super Bowl 57 Odds
Dolphins to Win Super Bowl 57 (+4000)
Before acquiring Hill, the Dolphins were 70-1 longshots to win Super Bowl 57. However, after the deal with Kansas City went down, Miami’s odds were slashed by over 40 percent to (+4000).
Don’t get me wrong, Hill is a tremendous player and a massive upgrade to this offense, but it is a bit surprising to see the odds shift so dramatically for the addition of a non-quarterback.
The path through the AFC East is still far from a cakewalk with the defending division champion Buffalo Bills currently installed as the favorites to win Super Bowl 57.
The trade did, however, close the gap between the Dolphins and the New England Patriots, who finished a game ahead of Miami in the standings in Mac Jones‘ rookie campaign. The AFC East odds now show the Dolphins as the second favorite to win the division, which makes sense given Hill is in Miami and New England lost star cornerback J.C. Jackson in free agency.
As nice as the Dolphins’ roster may look, their potential ceiling will solely be determined by Tua Tagovailoa. If Miami can get consistent and occasionally dynamic quarterback play, they’ll be a playoff team and maybe more in 2022.
If not, the Dolphins will regret not selecting Justin Herbert when they had the chance.
Given the limitations we’ve seen from Tua thus far, especially when it comes to big-time throws down the field, I’m still leaning towards the latter.
Dolphins AFC Championship Odds
Dolphins to Win AFC Championship (+2000)
Even after adding Hill to the offense, Miami is still outside the AFC playoff picture, according to the odds at Fanduel Sportsbook. The Dolphins have the ninth-best odds to win the conference, just ahead of the Cleveland Browns (+2100). That’s just how deep the AFC is.
With all of Miami’s moving parts, winning the AFC seems a step too many for the Dolphins to take next season. They’ll have a new head coach in Mike McDaniel and a new OC in Mike Smith, which means a new offense for Tua to learn and adjust to, along with his new arsenal of weapons.
It’ll also be interesting to see how Hill operates in an offense without the all-world talents of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce around him. He could certainly still be his dynamic, game-changing self, but it wouldn’t be shocking also to see some frustration if the quarterback play doesn’t live up to his standards.
Dolphins AFC East Winner Odds
Dolphins to Win AFC East Championship (+450)
The Bills remain the favorites to win the AFC East at (-230) and are the largest favorite of any AFC team to win their respective division. The Dolphins (+450) and Patriots (+500) will be fighting for second, with a large gulf separating them and the New York Jets (+2000).
Miami has not won the AFC East since 2008 when Chad Pennington led the franchise to an 11-5 record. You might remember that Dolphins team as the one that brought the Wildcat offense to the NFL, with Ronnie Brown terrorizing unsuspecting defenses.
That also happened to be the season that Tom Brady tore his ACL, leaving Matt Cassel at the helm in New England. Still, the Patriots also finished 11-5 and lost the division on a tiebreaker.
While that isn’t really relevant right now, the point is that this division has been difficult for the Dolphins and Jets to win over the last 20 years, with each franchise doing so just once over that span.
Brady may not be around to terrorize the rest of the AFC East anymore, but Josh Allen and the Bills have picked up that torch. Buffalo has won the East each of the past two seasons and is rightly plus-money favorites to repeat again this year.
Dolphins Make Playoffs Odds
Dolphins to Miss Playoffs (-174)
The AFC playoff picture is a tough one to figure out, especially given the overwhelming amount of talent in the AFC West. Miami’s best chance of reaching the postseason is by having that division cannibalize itself, with only one or two teams getting in.
If the Dolphins can get off to a decent start in September against some of their AFC opposition (Patriots, Ravens, Bills, Bengals), that would go a long way towards at least a Wild Card spot.
I think this team could take some time to adjust, which will lead to another slow start that is too much to overcome.
Dolphins Win Total Bets 2023
Dolphins: OVER 8.5 Wins (-135)
I can see nine wins on Miami’s schedule, but it feels like you’re going to need 10 to reach the playoffs in a 17-game season. The Dolphins will have to take care of an easy middle part of their schedule (Steelers, @ Lions, @ Bears, Browns, Texans) if they struggle early on.
Dolphins Prop Bets 2023
Tua Tagovailoa to Win NFL MVP (+5000) at Caesars
I’m always looking for value down the board when it comes to season-long awards props, so naturally Tua’s odds stuck out to me. He’s under the media microscope this year after getting major upgrades to his play-making arsenal.
If he takes a big step forward and the Dolphins somehow unseat the Bills to win the AFC East, I think he’s got a chance to get the votes needed to take this home.
How to Bet Dolphins Moneylines
Making a moneyline wager is the simplest way to bet on an NFL game. You just pick a team to win, and if they do, you win your bet.
Since not all matchups are equal, the odds for Dolphins moneylines can vary based their implied probability of beating their opponent. When Miami is favored against a team like the Jets, their moneyline odds will be preceded by a minus (-300). When they are an underdog, the odds will be preceded by a plus sign (+300).
The Dolphins were essentially a .500 team in the Brian Flores era, going 24-25 in his three-season tenure. I’d expect about the same this season under a new regime, so backing Miami situationally is the best strategy.
- 2021 Dolphins Moneyline Record: 9-8
How to Bet Dolphins Spreads
Miami was always a pesky team under Flores, which made them great value against the spread. Dolphins spreads have hit at a 60.4% clip over the past three years, only trailing Buffalo (60.8%) and Green Bay (63%) over that time frame.
Against the spread betting presents two evenly priced options for you to wager on, regardless of any talent discrepancies or injury-related news that may affect the matchup. The spread, set by oddsmakers, is essentially the expected margin of victory that will separate the favorite and the underdog.
If the Dolphins are 4-point favorite against the Jets, the spread for that contest will look like this: Dolphins -4 (-110) vs Jets +4 (-110). In this scenario, Miami would have to win by at least five points to cover the spread and cash your bet.
- 2021 Dolphins Against the Spread Record: 9-7-1
How to Bet Dolphins Over/Unders
A third way to wager on Dolphins games is to bet on the total number of points scored.
Last season, Dolphins Unders were profitable as they hit at a 58.8% clip. That could change this year as Miami has a retooled offense and an offensive-minded head coach in Mike McDaniel.
I’d be on the lookout for some Dolphins Overs, especially early in the season, before sportsbooks adjust.
- 2021 Dolphins Over/Under Record: 7-10