Best Patriots Betting Lines 2023
For a few months last fall, the New England Patriots looked like a team to fear. Then, well, they lost to the Buffalo Bills by roughly 4,000 points in the first round of the playoffs, and the expectations were recalibrated.
There are, however, reasons for optimism. Quarterback Mac Jones flashed during his rookie season. And the defense, while embarrassed against Buffalo, should once again be solid.
With the schedule officially released and the rest of the division loading up on talent through the draft and trades, a successful season won’t come easy. Here’s where things stand with New England as we head into the 2022 NFL season.
Note: These Patriots futures bet odds are current as of Tuesday, Aug. 30 at 2 p.m. ET and are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. You can find more odds at these US betting sites. But be careful, as many of these NFL futures odds might shift as we get closer to the 2022 NFL season.
Patriots Futures Betting Odds
- Win Total: Over 8.5 (-125) / Under 8.5 (+105)
- Make Playoffs: Yes (+140) / No (-165)
- Win AFC East (+475)
- Win AFC Championship (+2200)
- Win Super Bowl 57 (+4000)
🏈 to place any of these Patriots futures bets at Caesars Sportsbook.
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Patriots Super Bowl 57 Odds
Patriots to Win Super Bowl (+4000)
In terms of Super Bowl odds, New England is squarely in the center of the pack. Although it’s been a few years since Tom Brady left, it’s still strange to see this team at 40-to-1.
The reality, however, is somewhat simple. Until we know exactly what New England has at quarterback in Jones, the Patriots are likely to be in this position—behind teams with assumed greatness at the position.
The division is tough and getting tougher. The league is more challenging than it was six months ago. The value is there, although it’s there for a reason.
Patriots AFC Championship Odds
Patriots to Win AFC Championship (+2200)
The Patriots have the 12th-best odds out of 16 teams in the AFC. Again, kind of weird! But it also doesn’t feel off when you consider what has happened to the AFC this year.
Russell Wilson switched conferences when he was traded to the Broncos. Deshaun Watson was already in the AFC, but he certainly elevates the Browns once he returns from suspension. The Colts added Matt Ryan, who should make them immediately better. The Raiders added wideout Davante Adams.
Simply put, other teams have done more.
Patriots AFC East Winner Odds
Patriots to Win AFC East Championship (+475)
Like the conference, the division has gotten much better. The Bills, led by Josh Allen, are already established. The Dolphins added wideout Tyreek Hill along with a few other key free agents. The Jets nailed the draft and have really upgraded their roster over the past few years.
And what has New England truly done?
Well, they lost cornerback J.C. Jackson. That’s a big one. They added wideout DeVante Parker, which is a nice addition. But they are the third choice in the division, and the gap to the Jets is likely to keep closing.
Patriots Make Playoffs Odds
Patriots to Miss Playoffs (-165)
When was the last time the Patriots were this big of a favorite to miss the playoffs?
It’s a great question, and it’s certainly been quite some time. At this moment, given the wealth of capable teams in the AFC, it’s hard to imagine New England cracking the postseason.
Bill Belichick still carries some mystique, although even that has faded. While New England did crack the playoffs last year, it did not come easy. The same, plus some, will be the case once again.
Patriots Win Total Bets 2023
Patriots: UNDER 8.5 Wins (+105)
The addition of another regular season game has recalibrated win totals as a whole. It’s another opportunity, and it will take some getting used to after just one year.
With that said, this number feels somewhat lofty. The division, as already referenced, is good and getting better. The schedule also includes games at Green Bay, Arizona, Cleveland, and Las Vegas as well as home games against Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Baltimore.
That’s a long-winded way of saying it presents some challenges.
Patriots Prop Bets 2023
Patriots: Finish 3rd in AFC East (+165) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Unless Jones takes a massive leap, I just don’t see the Patriots rivaling the Bills and Dolphins.
New England’s roster still has talent, but the offensive line and secondary have both taken hits. The offense still lacks weapons overall. It’s not a bad collection of talent; it’s not a really good one, either.
The Patriots are the third best team in the division, and it wouldn’t shock me if the Jets actually finished with a better record. New England to finish last in the AFC East (+400) could be worth a sprinkle.
How to Bet Patriots Moneylines
If you’ve been betting on the NFL for a while, you know that Patriots moneylines have been a worthwhile venture for some time. A moneyline bet is the most simple form of NFL betting, as you just are picking a team to win a specific game. If they do, you win your bet.
Although the odds for NFL moneylines can vary, it’s hard to deny New England’s profitability. The Patriots boast a record of 142-51 since 2010, cashing in for moneyline bettors at a 73.6% clip.
New England was a favorite in almost all of those games, which does cut into some of the winnings. For instance, if they are a (-250) favorite against the Jets, you would have to wager $25 to return a $10 profit.
That will likely be less of the case this year as the Patriots continue to progress in the post-Brady era, which only makes them more valuable as outright winners.
- 2021 Patriots Moneyline Record: 10-7
How to Bet Patriots Spreads
Against the spread betting is the most popular and efficient method of wagering on NFL games, as it presents two evenly priced options. If the Patriots are 3-point favorites against the Jets, the spread for that matchup would look like this: Patriots -3 (-110) vs Jets +3 (-110).
Essentially, the spread is the amount of points that the bookmakers think the favorite — in this case New England — will win by against the underdog.
In this scenario, the Patriots would have to win by at least four points to pay off your wager. If they were to win by exactly a field goal, that bet would push (aka tie). If New England loses or wins by fewer than three points, your bet would be unsuccessful.
In the Belichick era, the Patriots have notoriously been good against the spread, especially as an underdog. New England has the best cover percentage since 2010 (58.5%) and that number rises to 64.5% when they aren’t favored. Make sure to keep that in mind when betting Patriots spreads throughout the season.
- 2021 Patriots Against the Spread Record: 10-7
How to Bet Patriots Over/Unders
Another way to get action on Patriots games is to bet on the number of points scored in a particular matchup.
Each week, oddsmakers will set the total — the combined amount of points the two teams expected score — and then you can bet on either the Over or the Under.
Totals can range widely from the low 40s to the mid 50s depending the matchup. New England’s games will likely sit in the middle to lower end of the spectrum as they have been a run-heavy offense, which tends to favor the Under.
- 2021 Patriots Over/Under Record: 9-8