Best Bills Betting Lines 2023
The Buffalo Bills took a small step back in 2021, losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in a thrilling Divisional Round game after losing in the same matchup in the 2020 AFC Championship Game. Nevertheless, they were one of the top clubs in the NFL, leading in point differential (+194 points), per Pro-Football-Reference.
Understandably, they’ve kept most of their integral pieces, though the receiving room will look slightly different without Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley.
However, the passing game will feature intriguing newcomers such as Jamison Crowder, O.J. Howard and rookies James Cook and Khalil Shakir. Gabriel Davis should also make a larger impact after his eye-popping end to the 2021 campaign.
The offensive line tasked with protecting Josh Allen and opening running lanes is revamped, and the Bills also made one of the biggest offseason splashes on the other side of the ball, signing two-time Super Bowl Champion Von Miller.
Arguably Buffalo’s most significant loss was offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who is now the head coach for the New York Giants. Nonetheless, they filled his seat from within, promoting quarterback coach and passing game coordinator Ken Dorsey.
Still, the offseason has unquestionably been a success, avoiding any glaring holes on the roster. Further, while they’re pressed tight to the cap, they could be a potential home for ring-chasing free agents available now and after June 1 cuts.
Note: These Bills futures bet odds are current as of Friday, Aug. 19, at 5 p.m. ET. You can find more odds at these US betting sites. But be careful, as many of these NFL futures odds might shift as we get closer to the 2022 NFL season.
Bills Futures Betting Odds
- Win Total: Over 11.5 (-140) / Under 11.5 (+120)
- Make Playoffs: Yes (-600) / No (+425)
- Win AFC East (-230)
- Win AFC Championship (+300)
- Win Super Bowl 57 (+600)
🏈 to place any of these Bills futures bets at Caesars Sportsbook.
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Bills Super Bowl 57 Odds
Bills to Win Super Bowl (+600)
The Bills are the NFL’s betting favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Allen cemented his status as one of the game’s best quarterbacks in a brilliant encore to his breakout 2020 campaign.
Additionally, despite a comically poor effort against the Chiefs in the playoffs, the defense was one of the best in the league last year. As a result, they’re a well-rounded team with merit for being the betting favorite, and they’re an attractive bet to win the championship.
Bills AFC Championship Odds
Bills to Win AFC Championship (+300)
The Bills will have to slay their nemesis Chiefs, saying nothing of the defending AFC Champion Cincinnati Bengals, after falling to them in the playoffs in back-to-back years if they want to win the AFC Championship.
The AFC is loaded. However, the AFC East doesn’t look as treacherous as the AFC North and AFC West.
That’s a boon for the Bills compared to the Chiefs and their AFC West competition and the Bengals and their AFC North contemporaries. Thus, Buffalo’s path of less resistance is favorable for winning the No. 1 seed and the valuable bye that accompanies it.
Since I called the Bills an attractive bet to win the Super Bowl, suffice to say, they’re also a good bet to win the AFC Championship.
Bills AFC East Winner Odds
Bills to Win AFC East Championship (-230)
I don’t love taking short odds on a future. Nevertheless, the Bills are fairly priced to repeat as the AFC East champs for the third year.
Yes, the New England Patriots split with the Bills in the regular season last year, the Miami Dolphins swung for the fences with Hill and added further reinforcements, and the New York Jets appear on the rise. Still, the Bills should win the division.
If you have a bankroll large enough to tie up funds on their (-180) odds, there’s nothing wrong with doing so.
However, as a recreational gambler with a small bankroll, I prefer to avoid this wager or parlay the Bills to win the AFC East with another team winning their division. Unfortunately, Caesars Sportsbook doesn’t allow parlaying division winners, but other books do. So, check your preferred book’s rules.
Bills Make Playoffs Odds
Bills to Make Playoffs (-600)
The Bills should cruise to the playoffs as long as Allen stays healthy. However, even if Allen misses a few games, the Bills added competent backup Case Keenum via trade. Keenum is capable of holding down the fort and stealing a win or two.
Regardless, tying up money for months on a (-600) bet isn’t business I partake in. Additionally, I don’t suggest gamblers with a big bankroll tie up their funds for months on this bet, either. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze.
Bills Win Total Bets 2022
Bills: OVER 11.5 Wins (-140)
The Bills won 13 games in 2020 before slipping to 11 wins in 2021. Promisingly, five of their six losses were by one score, and all of their wins were by 12 points or more.
So, with a pinch of better luck in one-score games, the Bills should eclipse 11.5 wins as six teams did in 2021.
Bills Prop Bets 2022
Josh Allen: Most Regular-Season Passing Yards (+1200)
Allen was eighth in passing yards in 2021 and fifth in 2020. His betting line ranks him at the eighth-shortest odds behind Derek Carr. Allen doesn’t appear to be egregiously mispriced, but he’s a legitimate threat to lead the league in passing thanks to his elite raw gifts (including his arm strength) and team’s offensive tendencies.
According to Football Outsiders, the Bills played at the ninth-fastest situation neutral pace. Moreover, per Sharp Football Stats, the Bills passed at the second-highest rate (66%) when the offensive scoring margin was from trailing by seven points to leading by seven.
I’m bullish on Dorsey running a similar offense. Thus, Allen is a threat to lead the league in passing yards and worth sprinkling a bet on.
Gabriel Davis: Most Regular-Season Receiving Yards (+7500)
It’s fun firing a small wager on an extremely longshot bet. It’s even more fun cashing that bet. Obviously, Davis isn’t likely to lead the NFL in receiving yards, evidenced by his odds.
However, Buffalo’s probable No. 2 receiver looks like he’s underpriced. As I noted above, the Bills play fast and pass a ton. And, again, when we last saw Davis, he barbecued for the Chiefs for 201 receiving yards.
Is it possible Davis earned more trust and looks from Allen thanks to his elite playoff performance? Maybe. Buffalo’s investment in slot receivers and neglect to fill Sanders’ perimeter role is a vote of confidence for Davis, too.
At the least, Davis is an ascending talent entering his third year. According to Pro Football Focus, including the playoffs, among players targeted at least 60 times last season, Davis was 15th in Yards Per Route Run (2.03 Y/RR). So, he might be on the precipice of blowing up.
Skip the premium coffee one day and spend that money on a bet on Davis leading the NFL in receiving yards and enjoy the ride.
How to Bet Bills Moneylines
NFL moneyline wagers are the most basic football bets on a ticket. It’s simple: Pick the team you think will win the game. They win, and you win.
NFL moneyline odds will fluctuate week-to-week based each team’s implied probability of winning (or losing) a stated game. Minus odds (-200) signify the favorite. Underdogs are identified by plus-odds (+200).
If the Bills are a (-200) favorite, you’ll be required to bet $20 to win $10 on top of your original buy-in ($30 total payout). If they’re a (+200) underdog, you’ll be paid $20 from a successful $10 bet.
As one of 2022’s preseason favorites to win Super Bowl 57, expect Bills MLs to see extremely short odds most weeks.
- 2021 Bills Moneyline Record: 11-6
How to Bet Bills Spreads
While moneylines are the most common form of NFL wagers, spread betting is the most popular way to bet football games. It offers more options of how to predict the final score, specifically two evenly priced options, regardless of the talent disparity between two teams.
The spread, which is established and moved by sportsbook traders, is essentially the number of points by which the favorite is expected to win over the underdog.
If the books list the Bills as 3-point favorites over the Dolphins, the spread would look something like this: Bills -3 (-110) vs Dolphins +3 (-110).
Given the near coin-flip element of this bet, most spreads have a “juice" of (-110), which means you would have to put up $110 to win $100 on top of your original bet.
In this example, the Bills must win by more than a field goal for your bet to cash. If they win by exactly three points, your bet is a push and you would see your initial stake returned.
Buffalo’s top-level defense will typically help their elite offense thrive enough to beat spreads.
- 2021 Bills Against the Spread Record: 10-7-2
How to Bet Bills Over/Unders
Uncertain about whether to bet on the Bills to win or lose a particular NFL game? Pivot from the spread or moneyline and instead bet on the total points in a Bills matchup.
Betting on Bills Over/Under totals would seem to favor Overs, given how high-octane the Bills’ passing offense often performs. However, Buffalo often dictates time of possession, which sometimes can cause them to fall short of Overs.
- 2021 Bills Over/Under Record: 10-9