The Bills were one of the best teams in the NFL again last season, posting a 13-3 record while outscoring their opponents by 169 points. However, they barely defeated the Miami Dolphins in the Wild Card round before losing to the Cincinnati Bengals in the Divisional Round.
As they turn their attention to 2023, they will be in an AFC East that has improved around them.
Bills Best Futures Odds
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NFL odds featured in this Bills report were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of May 24, 2023, at 5:00 PM ET.
Bills Win Total Odds
- Over 10.5 Wins (-140)
- Under 10.5 Wins (+120)
Bills Win Total Bet: Over 10.5 (-140)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
The Bills went 13-3 last year, finishing with the second-best record in the AFC. They have won at least 11 games in three straight seasons, with their success evolving around the emergence of quarterback Josh Allen. Allen had at least 35 passing touchdowns and at least six rushing touchdowns in all three seasons.
The AFC East should be more difficult this year after the New York Jets added Aaron Rodgers. Still, the Bills will return most of their key players on offense while adding Damien Harris to help provide depth for their backfield.
Even if the Bills take a step backward from last season, they can still finish with two fewer wins and hit the over for their total.
Bills Make Playoffs Odds
- Yes (-240)
- No (+195)
Bills Make Playoffs Bet: Yes (-240)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
Only one Wild Card team finished with more than 10 wins last season. That was the Dallas Cowboys, who had 12 wins but didn’t win their division because the Philadelphia Eagles won 14 games. All three Wild Card teams in the AFC finished with nine or 10 wins.
The Bills, ranked 4th in our NFL power rankings, should again have one of the more prolific offenses in the league with Allen at the helm. That should be enough to get them into the playoffs since we’ve already taken them to go over their win total with at least 11 victories. Even if they were to miss that and win 10 games, it would likely be enough to get them in.
Bills Futures Prop Bets
Regular Season Series Matchups: Bills vs. Jets Correct Score Series Tied 1-1 (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
These two teams split the season series last year. The Jets won their home game, while the Bills emerged victorious in Buffalo. The Jets should be an improved team this season with Rodgers as their starting quarterback, which gives them a good chance of winning their home game against the Bills again.
Expect the Bills to defeat the Jets when they face each other in Buffalo. Over the last three seasons, the Bills have lost a combined five regular season games at home.
The last time the Jets defeated the Bills in Buffalo came in Week 17 of the 2019 season when the Bills rested most of their starters. That won’t be a problem this year, with the two teams facing off in Buffalo in Week 11.
Josh Allen Over 4,200.5 Regular Season Passing Yards (-112)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
Despite Allen’s ability to do plenty of damage on the ground, he still posts prolific passing numbers. Even while battling through injury last year and missing a game, he threw for 4,283 yards. He threw for at least 4,400 yards in both 2020 and 2021.
Allen still has his top wide receiver in Stefon Diggs, who has totaled at least 1,220 receiving yards in all three seasons since joining the Bills. Allen also has the explosive Gabe Davis, who had a career-high 836 receiving yards last season.
His dynamic tight end duo of Dawson Knox and rookie Dalton Kincaid could also help Allen’s efforts to go over this total. Kincaid averaged at least 12.7 yards per reception in each season of his college career.
Bills To Win Exactly 11 Games (+550)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.25 units
The Bills have won six or seven games at home in the last three seasons. With that in mind, let’s give them six home wins this year. They play an international game against the Jaguars, and we’ll also account for a win for the Bills there.
That gets the Bills to seven victories before we factor in their eight road games. Let’s say they split those. They have a tough road schedule, including games against the Bengals, Chiefs and Eagles. However, Allen has never had a losing record on the road in a season where he started at least 16 games.
Bills Game Odds & Lines
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Bills Best Player Prop Odds
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More AFC East odds: Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | New York Jets
How to Bet on Bills Games in 2023
How to Bet Bills Moneylines
NFL moneyline wagers are the simplest forms of NFL bets. All you have to do is pick a team to win a given game, and if they do, you win your bet.
Since winning is the only requirement to cash your bet, the odds for NFL moneylines can vary greatly depending on each team’s implied probability of winning (or losing) that game. Favorites are designated by a minus symbol (-200), whereas underdogs are represented by a plus symbol (+200).
If the Bills are a (-200) favorite against the rival Patriots, you would have to bet $20 to turn a $10 profit. If Buffalo was a (+200) underdog, you would profit $20 off a $10 bet.
- 2022 Bills Moneyline Record: 14-4
How to Bet Bills Spreads
Betting the spread is the most efficient way to wager on NFL games, as it presents two evenly priced options. The spread, which is assigned a value by the books, is the number of points that the favorite is expected to win by against the underdog.
If the Bills are 6-point favorites over the Jets, the spread for that game will be set up like this: Bills -6 (-110) vs Jets +6 (-110).
In this scenario, the Bills would have to win by more than six points for you to win your bet. If they were to win by a pair of field goals, your bet would push and you would recoup your initial wager.
For as good as the Bills’ won-loss record was last year, they did not perform well in terms of the spread. Part of the problem was that they were favored by at least eight points in nine of their games. They went 4-5 against the spread in those games.
- 2022 Bills Against the Spread Record: 8-10
How to Bet Bills Over/Unders
If you don’t want to pick a side, you can still bet on Bills games by wagering on the total number of points scored.
Sportsbooks set the amount of combined points they expect both teams in the game to score, and then you can bet on either the Over or the Under.
If you expect Allen, Diggs, and the Bills to light up the scoreboard, then you’ll probably want to take the Over. If you think a specific game could be more defensive, then you would bet the Under. Given that the Bills’ offensive core has returned, they should be looking at some lofty totals again.
- 2022 Bills Over/Under Record: 7-11
