At the start of each campaign, all 20 Premier League teams have aspirations of winning the title, especially after what Leicester City showed small clubs was possible during their magical 2015-16 season.
By the middle of the year, however, things start to change. The top teams begin to separate themselves from the pack, leaving bottom clubs in a fight for their survival.
With the bottom three EPL teams getting relegated to the EFL Championship at the end of the season, surviving the drop is a must for clubs and their fan bases.
As we head into the final stretch of the 2021-22 campaign, one team is almost assuredly going down while another EPL stalwart is in big trouble, according to the odds.
Premier League Relegation Odds
EPL odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Thursday, April 7, as of 6 p.m. ET.
|Team||Games Played||Points||Relegation Odds|
While it doesn’t have a 100% track record, the magic number for staving off relegation is typically 40 points over 38 games.
As things stand, 40 points may not even be necessary this season with the bottom four teams all currently having 25 points or less. Either way, Brighton is just two wins away from the magic number, while Brentford and Newcastle are also in relatively strong positions.
On the flip side, Norwich is the most likely to go down due to a massively negative goal differential while Watford, Burnley, and Everton are all in immediate peril.
Premier League Relegation Predictions
Norwich is a club that has danced between the Premier League and EFL Championship over the last decade-plus, and it looks certain to go back down again this year after winning the Championship in 2021.
- Want to check out the contenders to win the Premier League? Read about the clubs in contention and the EPL Winner Odds.
The Canaries have scored the fewest goals in the league this season by a wide margin and haven’t been that much better at keeping them out of their own net. The run-in offers a few glimmers of hope against fellow strugglers Burnley and Newcastle, but the gap is too big to overcome at this point.
Watford has also been a yo-yo club in recent years. Relegated two seasons ago and promoted last year after finishing runner-up to Norwich in the Championship, the Hornets look set to head back down again.
While Watford has a realistic chance of overtaking Burnley or Everton in points, they are well behind both clubs on the tiebreaker of goal differential and have also played a game more.
I can’t believe I’m saying it, but I think there’s a realistic chance Everton goes down this season. It would be a shocking development for a club that hasn’t been relegated to the second tier of English football since the 1950-51 campaign.
The Toffees have a brutal remaining schedule, which features games against Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Leicester City (twice). Given their woeful away form, even the relegation six-pointer at Watford will be a difficult one.
Premier League Relegation Sleepers
Burnley is far from safety, but I’m expecting them to kick on a bit after their 3-2 home victory over Everton. The schedule the rest of the way is relatively manageable, with trips to Tottenham and West Ham standing out as the least-winnable fixtures remaining.
The Clarets have always had an impressive defensive record under manager Sean Dyche, but the lack of goals has been an issue this season. Despite only having won as many games as Norwich (4), Burnley has scraped up points via double-digit draws.
Getting three points on trips to Norwich and Watford will be key, but I think Burnley can escape the bottom three.
The managerial change from Marcelo Bielsa to American Jesse Marsch hasn’t helped Leeds improve their defensive record all that much, but a couple of late winning goals have improved the morale of the West Yorkshire club.
Leeds has fewer games remaining than many of their fellow relegation candidates, so they’ll have to collect some points away from home in games against Watford, Brentford, and Crystal Palace. Otherwise, they’ll need results against the much more dangerous trio of Manchester City, Chelsea, and Arsenal.