Premier League Winner Odds & Predictions

Last Updated: Mar 7, 2023

The English Premier League is widely heralded as the most competitive domestic league in the European soccer landscape, and that is proving to be the case once again this season.

One week into March, Arsenal remain the surprise league leaders ahead of reigning champions Manchester City. However, the title race remains tight, with the Gunners maintaining a slender five-point advantage with 12 games to play.

After a strong first half of the season, Manchester United emerged as a surprise challenger to the top two. However, a recent 7-0 defeat at Liverpool looks to have ended any hope of a late-season charge for the Red Devils.

Here are the current Premier League winner odds for the 2022-23 season.

Premier League Winner Odds

EPL winner odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of Tuesday, March 7, at 11 a.m. ET.

  • Arsenal (-125)
  • Manchester City (+110)
  • Manchester United (+2500)
  • Liverpool (+50000)
  • Newcastle (+50000)
  • Tottenham (+75000)

After topping the table for the majority of the campaign, Arsenal have finally overtaken Manchester City as the betting favorites to win the Premier League. The Gunners have shown a level of consistency and resiliency to earn that moniker, having produced a number of memorable comeback victories and recovering well from a mid-season blip that included a home defeat to the reigning champions.

Still, there isn’t much of a disparity between the two teams in the odds, which isn’t a surprise given the consistent level of elite play Pep Guardiola‘s side has produced over the last few years. This Man City squad may not be as dominant as those teams, especially at the back, but there are plenty of reasons to believe it can overtake the Gunners.

The champions have experienced the pressure of the stretch run before, going toe-to-toe with Liverpool until the end in recent years, while the majority of Arsenal’s young squad has not. City also currently have the benefit of a superior goal differential and can bridge the gap to the Gunners with a home victory against the league leaders, as the top two sides are set to meet at the Etihad Stadium in late April.

Premier League Winner Prediction

Manchester City (+110)

Manchester City have won four of the last five Premier League titles and are certainly capable of overcoming their current deficit, even with crucial Champions League fixtures to come during the back half of the season.

The summer addition of sensational striker Erling Haaland has made a vital difference in City’s attack as the 22-year-old Norwegian has netted 27 goals in his first 25 league appearances.

Not only is Haaland running away with the EPL Golden Boot, but he is on pace to break the league’s all-time goalscoring record (Alan Shearer and Andy Cole, 34, in a 42-game season) in his first year in England.

Having him and World Cup-winner Julián Álvarez spearhead an attack that is presented with a boatload of chances from creators like Kevin De Bruyne and others should see City continue to win games at a prolific clip.

Guardiola’s men should be able to pile the pressure on the Gunners down the stretch, and having a head-to-head matchup at home is a massive boost. At plus money odds (+110), now is the time to back Man City to win a third title in a row.

Premier League Title Contenders

Arsenal (-125)

Despite entering the season with aspirations of just breaking back into the top four, the Gunners’ brilliant start to the campaign has fans dreaming of a first Premier League title since 2004.

Arsenal have won 20 of their 26 matches and recovered well from a February stretch that saw them drop points in consecutive matches against Everton, Brentford, and Man City.

The introduction of Frenchman William Saliba into the heart of center defense has made a massive difference in the club’s resolve, with the Gunners conceding the joint second-fewest goals (25) in the league.

On the other end of the pitch, goals have flown in from young attacking talents in Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, and captain Martin Ødegaard. The World Cup injury to summer signing Gabriel Jesus raised concerns about Arsenal’s ability to keep this run going, but Eddie Nketiah stepped up with some key goals after the restart and Leandro Trossard has added another dimension to this attack since joining from Brighton in January.

A healthy Jesus would go a long way toward helping Arsenal see their title challenge over the line. However, backing the Gunners at this point is difficult given the odds and their collective inexperience.

I certainly liked the value more earlier in the season, or in August when I recommended them at 35-1 odds, but there is no doubting that Arsenal are going to give City a run for their money down the stretch.

Manchester United (+2500)

The Red Devils have come a long way after losing their opening two matches of the campaign to Brighton and Brentford. A lot of credit has to go to manager Erik ten Hag, who has been assertive in his decision-making and was quick to move on from club legend Cristiano Ronaldo once the situation became untenable.

Fortunately, the Red Devils have been boosted by the performance of Marcus Rashford, who has set the football world on fire since the World Cup. The Englishman has scored 17 goals across all competitions since the end of Qatar 2022, including the 82nd-minute winner in a 2-1 derby victory over City in January.

Had United followed up that win with another at Arsenal later in the month, the Red Devils would have truly thrown their hat in the race. However, a 3-2 defeat saw the Gunners extend the gap and a recent 7-0 drubbing at Liverpool has changed the narrative a bit.

Ten Hag’s side now sits 14 point adrift from Arsenal, albeit with a game in hand, which seems nearly insurmountable at this point. United are more likely to find themselves in a Premier Leage top-four battle down the stretch, with Spurs, Liverpool, and Newcastle within eight points of third spot.

I don’t think 25-1 odds are long enough here, especially since that’s about where United were at the start of the season.


John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

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