It’s hard to believe that half of the Premier League season is already gone, but we are officially at the midway point. There have been countless upsets, as this year doesn’t appear to be a march to the mid-90s of points for anyone, even the league’s best.
Manchester City, seemingly for once, is not on top, but they’re within striking distance of recent rivals Liverpool and mixed up with upstart challengers Aston Villa and last year’s runners-up, Arsenal.
City’s treble defense relies in part on winning at home, but there are more teams in the way of accomplishing that task than ever before. Will they get the job done, or will a three-peat be all they get in England’s top league?
Here are the current Premier League winner odds for the 2023-24 season.
Premier League Winner Odds
Premier League winner odds are current as of 9:30 pm EST on December 31st, 2023, at DraftKings sportsbook.
- Manchester City (-150)
- Liverpool (+250)
- Arsenal (+600)
- Aston Villa (+2200)
- Tottenham (+3500)
- Man United (+25000)
- Newcastle (+50000)
- West Ham (+80000)
- Chelsea (+80000)
- Wolves (+100000)
- Sheffield United (+100000)
- Fulham (+100000)
- Crystal Palace (+100000)
- Burnley (+100000)
- Brighton (+100000)
- Everton (+100000)
- Brentford (+100000)
- Bournemouth (+100000)
- Nottingham Forest (+100000)
- Luton Town (+100000)
There are a couple of clear divides between tiers of contenders, starting with City all on their own at the top.
They’re followed by Liverpool and Arsenal with fairly long but realistic odds, and then Aston Villa and Tottenham are pegged as having a “Cinderella” type chance to win it all. From there on, nobody is viewed as having a meaningful chance to win the league, with over half of the league saddled with the same +100000 odds.
Premier League Winner Best Bet
Over the past era of Premier League football, Liverpool is the only club that has shown the ability to truly run with Manchester City in a Premier League race. The Reds ran away with the league back in the 2019-20 season and came up just a point short on matchday 38 in both 2019 and 2022.
City are pretty likely to surge back up and win it all as they have so often in the past, but +250 odds for the team sitting at the top of the table are pretty solid, especially when the underlying metrics show that they belong there.
The Reds have only lost once in the league, a completely unjust result after perhaps the worst VAR blunder yet, two fewer defeats than anyone else. Their goal differential is just one below City’s, and they even fought to a draw at the Etihad.
Jürgen Klopp has masterfully navigated a light-speed rebuild after a horrifying 2022-23 campaign. Mohamed Salah is once again just about the best player in the entire league, while Virgil Van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold are regaining their form.
But the biggest change has been the midfield, boosted by offseason acquisitions Dominik Szobozlai, Alexis Mac Allister, and Wataru Endo. With much better performances in the middle of the yard, the Reds have been much more consistent this season and could stay on top all year long.
Premier League Title Contenders
Manchester City (-150)
As they deal with unprecedented depth issues and sit a few ticks below the top, betting City in minus odds in a race that is by no means between just two horses is a bit silly. But Pep Guardiola’s squad is undoubtedly the most likely one to come through the scrum and finish on top.
Erling Haaland and Kevin de Bruyne will be coming back from their injuries soon, but it’s no guarantee that the Sky Blues will outlast the competition, which is deeper than ever.
City will have the hardest job of anyone when it comes time to balance several fixtures, as they’re still in the FA Cup and Champions League, and also need to deal with some rescheduling after a trip to the Club World Cup.
Guardiola will need to settle on a top-choice back line and find some stability if his team is going to stay consistent enough to outpace a fantastic Liverpool down the stretch- giving up two goals to Crystal Palace and three to Tottenham simply is not good enough.
Arsenal’s odds have gotten longer for very good reason; they’ve had a really tough time balancing domestic pursuits with a return to the Champions League. Mikel Arteta has done a tremendous job getting the most out of every player on his squad, but it just might not be a deep enough group to balance everything that must be done, especially compared to a Liverpool squad that is only fighting for the Europa League.
The Gunners are also still searching for a true top-option at striker. Too often, they’ve controlled the match and failed to capitalize, with guys like Eddie Nketiah and Gabriel Jesus not emerging as a consistent source of a lethal finish.
This team is really well-rounded, but the high-end players just might not be good enough to get the job done. Arsenal might have to choose between prioritizing domestic and European pursuits if they want to accomplish much in either arena; there’s no guarantee that they pick a lane before it’s too late
Premier League Sleepers
Aston Villa (+2200)
They’ve stumbled just a tiny bit as of late, but Unai Emery’s squad has burst onto the scene in a tremendous way after showing a lot of promise last season. They’ve had chances to jump to the top of the table and enter the New Year in second, a tremendous accomplishment for a major underdog.
Unfortunately, these odds accurately reflect the likelihood of them getting the job done and topping England’s top flight for the first time since 1981 (and just the second since 1910). Breakout striker Ollie Watkins has been great at times, but his inconsistency has been maddening and rears its head seemingly at the worst possible times.
Villa’s back end also is not good enough just yet- they’ve allowed 27 goals in league play, compared to Liverpool’s league-best 16, and tallies of 20 and 21 from Arsenal and Manchester City, respectively. Until we see better defensive performances from guys like Diego Carlos, it’ll be hard to take this side seriously as title challengers.
New boss Ange Postecoglou has captured the hearts of the Tottenham fanbase, but can he snare the club’s first-ever Premier League trophy? Probably not, but at just a few points away from the top of the table, there’s as good of a chance as the club has had in years.
They’re the only English squad to beat Liverpool this season, albeit amidst dubious circumstances. The attack is also as good as almost any in the league, with Son Heung-Min well on the way to another fantastic season.
The issue for Tottenham isn’t a new one; they simply aren’t good enough at the back. Their goals allowed total is just the eighth-lowest in the league, not a bad figure, but not good enough either to be a title contender in this era. A top-four spot is probably a more reasonable target for Tottenham than a league title, but they’ll be fun to watch the rest of the way.