The English Premier League is always one of the most competitive domestic leagues in the European soccer landscape, and that proved to be the case again last season as Manchester City won the title on the final day of the campaign.
Much like they had done 10 years prior when Sergio Aguero‘s last-gasp goal clinched the title against QPR, City made things difficult for themselves on the final day. This time, City trailed 2-0 against Aston Villa — opening the door for second-place Liverpool — before rallying back for a 3-2 victory that sealed their fourth title in five years.
As we enter the 2022-23 EPL season, one that will be impacted heavily by a winter World Cup in Qatar, you will see that Man City are the title favorites once again.
Premier League Winner Odds
EPL winner odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Wednesday, July 27 at 10 a.m. ET.
- Manchester City (-165)
- Liverpool (+200)
- Tottenham (+1400)
- Chelsea (+1600)
- Manchester United (+2500)
- Arsenal (+3500)
Manchester City is favored to win the Premier League once again this season, which should come as no surprise given the consistent level of elite play Pep Guardiola‘s side has produced over the last few years.
Liverpool is the only other club that has been able to somewhat keep pace with City, winning the title in 2020 and falling a point short last season. There are certainly some questions about the Reds heading into this campaign, however, especially after the departure of Sadio Mané (Bayern Munich) in the summer.
Tottenham entering the season as the third-favorite above Chelsea is a bit of a surprise given theSpurs haven’t won a top-flight title since 1961, but the odds show that there is still a sizable gap between the top two and the rest of the Premier League contenders.
Premier League Winner Prediction
Manchester City (-165)
Manchester City has won four of the last five Premier League titles and added a devastating finisher in Erling Haaland to the front line this summer.
City have made due with a rotation of strikers and false nines over the last few years, but Haaland’s goalscoring record speaks for itself. Having him spearhead an attack that is presented with a boatload of chances from creators like Kevin De Bruyne and others should see City ascend to a new level this season.
While some may worry about attacking squad depth after the departures of Raheem Sterling (Chelsea) and Gabriel Jesus (Arsenal), Man City are still loaded with talent and will easily be able to take advantage of the EPL’s five-substitution rule change.
Kalvin Phillips was brought in from Leeds United to fill the only real hole in defensive midfield and help protect an elite backline, which conceded a league-fewest 26 goals last campaign. There is no weakness in this City squad and that tends to make it hard for others to keep up over the 38-game campaign.
While investing your money in a (-165) favorite for the long haul isn’t the most attractive option, Man City seems like a good bet to win a third title in a row.
Premier League Championship Contenders
Liverpool gave City a real go of it in the second half of last season, dropping points on just three occasions after the calendar flipped to 2022 to narrow the gap and extend the title race until the final day.
After falling just short, the Reds will have to find the energy to give it another go. The key for Liverpool this season will be the chemistry of their attacking talent, as Mohamed Salah will likely play alongside January addition Luis Díaz and summer signing Darwin Núñez.
Díaz looks to be quite the talent and had no trouble fitting in, but Mane is no longer on Merseyside to be the central link between the two. Getting Núñez up to speed quickly will be important, especially with the season starting a bit earlier than usual.
I think Liverpool had a better chance to pip City for the title last season, but they should still be the main threat.
After finishing fourth and securing a spot in this season’s Champions League, Tottenham has added depth to Antonio Conte‘s squad and given the Italian manager the pieces required to compete on multiple fronts.
The summer signing of Richarlison (Everton) was the headliner, as he can provide cover for Harry Kane as the main striker and play opposite 2022 Golden Boot winner Son Heung-Min as a winger in Conte’s 3-4-2-1 formation.
However, it was the depth moves that may have made Tottenham more likely to compete for the title. Ivan Perisic (Inter Milan) will give Spurs another option on the wing, while Yves Bissouma (Brighton) will add some mettle in midfield and Clement Lenglet (Barcelona) will help shore up the defense.
Spurs are still likely a few major moves away from a true title challenge, but they should be improved this season.
Premier League Title Sleepers
Arsenal has the sixth-best odds to win the Premier League this season, but they might be in better shape to contend right now than both Chelsea (+1600) and Manchester United (+2500).
The Gunners raided Manchester City this offseason for striker Gabriel Jesus and left-back Alex Zinchenko, who will both play important roles this year and add depth to a squad that very clearly lacked it down the final stretch of the 2021-22 campaign.
Still, Arsenal very nearly finished fourth last year and has a clear identity moving forward under manager Mikel Arteta. Unlike Chelsea and United, who are overhauling their squads this summer, Arsenal’s young core that features likes of Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard, and Ben White has remained consistent and should continue to improve with more experience.
Arsenal is still likely a year or two away from a genuine title challenge, but the Gunners have plenty of upside with their assortment of young talent. At 35-1 odds, this isn’t a bad bet.
While preseason results don’t mean much, Chelsea did suffer a 4-0 defeat to Arsenal in the Florida Cup and it’s hard to ignore that the Blues look a bit all over the place at the moment.
That’s not the most encouraging sign heading into a new season that is starting earlier than usual and condensing more games into the early season due to the winter World Cup.
The hope here is that the new ownership group, spearheaded by Todd Boehly, will continue to spend to give Thomas Tuchel the pieces he needs to succeed. While Raheem Sterling (Man City) and Kalidou Koulibaly (Napoli) are a good start, Chelsea is going to need more reinforcements to make up for a long list of departures.
It’s certainly possible that the investment continues to grow, but these aren’t tantalizing odds to begin with.