The English Premier League is generally regarded as the most competitive domestic league in club soccer because of the depth of talented teams that fight for positioning in the table.
While the EPL title race typically features 2-3 contenders at most after the season’s halfway point, the race for a Top 4 finish — and a spot in the following season’s UEFA Champions League — typically involves a handful of teams fighting until the final matchday of the campaign.
With Manchester City and Liverpool in the driver’s seat for the top two spots in the 2021-22 Premier League table, one of the more intriguing betting opportunities down the stretch of the season will be to predict the other two clubs that will finish in the top four and join them in Europe’s elite club competition.
As you’ll see in the Top 4 Finish Odds section, one team is well-positioned to finish third, but the fourth spot remains more up for grabs, per sportsbooks.
Premier League Top 4 Finish Odds
EPL odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of Wednesday, April 6 at 4 p.m. ET.
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As we head into the final two months of the season, Chelsea is in pole position to claim a spot in the top four. The Blues currently sit five points clear of Arsenal and Tottenham in the league table and have a game in hand on the latter.
Despite currently sitting in fifth place on goal difference, Arsenal is still a small favorite to edge out its North London rival because the Gunners have also played one fewer game than Tottenham.
Manchester United and West Ham are further off the pace but still within striking distance, while Wolves would likely have to win each of their final seven games to climb the teams in front of them.
Premier League Top 4 Finish Predictions
In addition to the nearly locked-in Manchester City and Liverpool:
Despite a recent home loss against Brentford, Chelsea remains in strong position to finish third in the league. The Blues did well to refocus their efforts on the pitch after the sanctions came down against owner Roman Abramovich, but they still have to get over the line.
- While you place bets on the Top 4, see our EPL Winner Odds and Predictions.
The only danger here is a congested schedule. Chelsea is still fighting on multiple fronts. The Blues have an FA Cup semifinal clash against Crystal Palace in April and are up against Real Madrid in the quarterfinals of the Champions League.
Chelsea does have head-to-heads with Arsenal, West Ham, Man United, and Wolves remaining, so if they were to lose all of them, they could be in trouble. The odds of that happening aren’t particularly high, however, especially since three of those matches will be on home turf at Stamford Bridge.
Tottenham boasts some value. Antonio Conte‘s side has finally found a bit of form. Spurs have won three out of their last four games and have a relatively easy run-in outside of a trip to Liverpool.
The fourth spot is likely going to be decided by the clash between Tottenham and Arsenal on Thursday, May 12. Spurs will host that vital derby before facing bottom-club Norwich on the final day of the season.
Premier League Top 4 Finish Contenders
Arsenal can absolutely still finish the season in the top four, but injuries are starting to mount at a key time. The Gunners don’t have the squad depth of Chelsea and just lost starting left back Kieran Tierney for the season, plus midfielder Thomas Partey limped off in their last match.
While the injuries are an issue, the major difference between Arsenal and Tottenham right now is their quality at the No. 9. Alex Lacazette just doesn’t have the quality in front of goal that Harry Kane does.
Manchester United (+800)
It’s been a horribly disappointing season for Manchester United. After sacking manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in November, things haven’t turned around much under Ralf Rangnick.
After a second-place finish last season, the Red Devils were expected to take another step forward this campaign with Cristiano Ronaldo returning and Raphaël Varane shoring things up at the back.
Neither of those moves has worked out particularly well, as they’ve created chemistry issues on and off the pitch. This United squad has looked disinterested in recent weeks, so even though the price is appealing, I don’t think they’re worth a bet.
Premier League Top 4 Finish Sleepers
West Ham (+2200)
A 3-1 defeat at Tottenham in March put West Ham’s chances of reaching the top four on life support, especially since the club is still giving its all in the knockout stages of the Europa League.
The Hammers have only seven league games remaining to make up ground and still have to face Chelsea, Arsenal, and Man City. It’ll take a monumental effort to overtake the others.