A new NFL season represents a clean slate for all 32 teams and also a new opportunity for those of us who play in survivor pools.
However, Week 1 can also be among the most challenging since the preseason isn’t a great indicator of the games to come. Last season, the two largest Week 1 favorites (Baltimore and Washington) got the job done at home, but overall, favorites went 8-8 straight up.
Will you play it safe with one of the heavy favorites this week or take a risk with a team you don’t want to save for later in the season?
Let’s dive into my NFL Week 1 survivor picks, which will hopefully help you (and me) avoid the embarrassment of elimination on the opening weekend.
NFL Week 1 Survivor Picks
Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos
I can’t imagine there will be many better opportunities to use the Seahawks than this one.
Seattle opens the Mike Macdonald era at home against the Broncos, who will turn to first-round pick Bo Nix at quarterback. Rookie QBs that start in Week 1 tend to struggle — all three 2023 Week 1 starters lost by double digits — and the last one to win their NFL debut was Sam Darnold in 2018.
Nix doesn’t have many talented skill-position players around him, and he will be going into one of the toughest road environments in the league.
I’m backing Geno Smith and the Seahawks to start their season with a resounding win as one of my NFL best bets today.
Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots
As the biggest favorite on the board, the Bengals will likely be the most popular Week 1 pick in NFL Survivor pools. However, I’m not ready to lock this in until we know that star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase is suiting up.
If Chase doesn’t go, Joe Burrow’s list of trusted weapons gets pretty thin behind Tee Higgins. In that situation, Andrei Iosivas would be Cincy’s No. 2 receiver, and tight end Mike Gesicki and running back Zack Moss are new pieces in this offense.
I know the Patriots are expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, and veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett doesn’t seem like a threat, especially with a very limited supporting cast. Still, we don’t know what to expect from New England under HC Jerod Mayo.
If Chase plays, the Bengals could vault into my top spot. If he doesn’t, I’d consider going in another direction.
(It may also be worth noting that I’m the lone member of The Game Day’s staff that has the Patriots covering the spread in our Week 1 NFL ATS picks.)
NFL Week 1 Survivor Grid
| Rank | Team | Opponent | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seahawks | vs Broncos | A+ |
| 2 | Bengals | vs Patriots | A+ |
| 3 | Bills | vs Cardinals | A- |
| 4 | Bears | vs Titans | A- |
| 5 | Dolphins | vs Jaguars | B+ |
| 6 | Falcons | vs Steelers | B+ |
| 7 | Buccaneers | vs Commanders | B+ |
| 8 | Texans | @ Colts | B+ |
| 9 | Chiefs | vs Ravens | B |
| 10 | Lions | vs Rams | B |
| 11 | Saints | vs Panthers | B |
| 12 | Chargers | vs Raiders | B |
| 13 | Browns | vs Cowboys | B |
| 14 | 49ers | vs Jets | B- |
| 15 | Eagles | vs Packers | B- |
| 16 | Vikings | @ Giants | B- |
| 17 | Giants | vs Vikings | B- |
| 18 | Packers | @ Eagles | C+ |
| 19 | Jets | @ 49ers | C+ |
| 20 | Cowboys | @ Browns | C |
| 21 | Raiders | @ Chargers | C |
| 22 | Panthers | @ Saints | C |
| 23 | Rams | @ Lions | C |
| 24 | Ravens | @ Chiefs | C |
| 25 | Colts | vs Texans | C- |
| 26 | Commanders | @ Buccaneers | C- |
| 27 | Steelers | @ Falcons | C- |
| 28 | Jaguars | @ Dolphins | C- |
| 29 | Titans | @ Bears | D |
| 30 | Cardinals | @ Bills | D |
| 31 | Patriots | @ Bengals | F |
| 32 | Broncos | @ Seahawks | F |
NFL Week 1 Survivor Sleeper Pick
Chicago Bears vs Tennessee Titans
While I’m hesitant to back rookie quarterbacks in Week 1, few walk into better situations than the one Caleb Williams has in Chicago.
The No. 1 overall pick has a trio of talented wideouts, including DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and fellow rookie Rome Odunze, and a veteran tailback in D’Andre Swift. Williams also has the benefit of playing on a team with a solid defense that won seven games last season — something quite rare for a team selecting at the top of the draft.
The Titans could be sneaky decent this season after bringing in Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, and Tyler Boyd to complement Will Levis on offense. Still, there are a lot of new pieces on this roster, including a significantly revamped secondary.
There’s an element of risk here since we haven’t seen Williams play an NFL regular-season game yet, but I like Chicago to start the season with a win at what should be a fired-up Soldier Field.
NFL Week 1 Survivor Team to Save
Buffalo Bills vs Arizona Cardinals
The Bills are favorites of nearly a touchdown in their season-opener against the Cardinals, who won just four games last season.
However, Arizona’s offense should improve considerably with a healthy Kyler Murray under center. The addition of alpha rookie receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. will help, too.
Meanwhile, this will be Josh Allen’s first game without top target Stefon Diggs, who was traded to Houston this offseason. Until we see how this Buffalo offense operates without him, I’m going to stay away from Sean McDermott’s squad, which has a couple of other soft spots on the schedule (Week 7 vs Tennessee, Week 16 vs New England) later in the season.
Use our NFL Eliminator tips to place bets with the top NFL odds:
NFL Week 1 Survivor Chalk Team That Could Lose
New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers
The Bills are probably the chalkier pick for this category, but I’ve already outlined my hesitation to pick Buffalo above.
While the Saints may not be the most attractive team, picking against the Panthers was a successful strategy in survivor pools last season, as Carolina won the fewest games (two) in the league.
I would advise against continuing that strategy in Week 1, as I expect Bryce Young to take a step forward in Year 2 under new HC Dave Canales, who worked wonders with Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith the last few seasons.
Staying away from divisional games is generally a solid strategy, and the Panthers have a good chance of pulling the upset in this one.
Read more on this matchup in our Saints vs Panthers prediction.
