Heading into NFL Week 14, I am coming off one of my best weeks of the season, having nailed four of six wagers on both player and game props.
The highlighted bet that cashed was a weekly special on DraftKings for both AJ Dillon and Christian Watson to score on rushing and receiving touchdowns, respectively. My recent run on player props has been steady, often hitting on three to four per week.
I am honing in on some exciting matchups in NFL Week 14, such as Dolphins-Chargers and Buccaneers-49ers, while also touching on some divisional matchups and a one-sided intrastate matchup in Texas.
Scott Engel 2022 NFL props betting: 66-98 (-48 units)
Before reading Scott’s picks, toggle the widget below for our full list of NFL Week 13 player props:
NFL Player Props Week 14
NFL Week 14 odds used for prop bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise noted) and are current as of Friday, Dec. 9.
Tony Pollard: Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-115) vs Texans
WAGER: 3 Units
This one seems so easy that I almost feel like I am lazy in entering it, but we have to take the heavy chalk when possible. Pollard may even be able to get past this prop on three carries.
Pollard has rushed for over 80 yards in five of his last six games. I am also considering the DraftKings weekly special in this matchup against the NFL’s worst rushing defense, taking Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott to both rush for TDs at +175.
Miles Sanders: Anytime TD Scorer (-105) at Giants
WAGER: 2 Units
Sanders has morphed into a consistent TD force for the Eagles this season. He has rushed for a career-high nine TDs, including three in the past two games, confirming this play as a top Week 14 NFL bet.
The Giants have allowed five rushing TDs in the last four weeks, making this wager as close to a non-Cowboys slam dunk as you will find this week at running back.
- Check out the latest NFL Week 14 Odds for more on the upcoming slate of games.
T.J. Hockenson: Anytime TD Scorer (+180) at Lions
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Let’s have some fun with the featured “revenge game” matchup of the week. Hockenson was traded by the Lions at the beginning of November as Detroit looked to continue to regain respectability without him.
The Lions have allowed eight receiving TDs to tight ends, tied for the second-most in the NFL.
Justin Herbert: Over 289.5 Passing Yards (-110) vs Dolphins
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Herbert is not going to want to be outdone by Tua Tagovailoa, and the matchup is favorable enough for him to get past this projected number.
Miami ranks 22nd in passing yards allowed per game, and Herbert has passed for 274+ passing yards in each of the past three games. He will have both of his top wide receivers (Keenan Allen and Mike Williams) back this week, which has been a rarity for him this season.
Brandon Aiyuk: Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115) vs Buccaneers
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Brock Purdy looked like he could be a decent fill-in replacement last week when he relieved Jimmy Garoppolo. But when an opponent has a full week to prepare for Purdy, the results could be ugly.
Aiyuk has just 131 receiving yards in his last three games. I am not yet buying into any talk that Purdy can continue to play respectably and the San Francisco WR production will suffer this week.
DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett: 1+ Receiving TD Each (+350) vs Panthers
WAGER: 1 Unit
This is my targeted weekly special on DraftKings. Lockett is one of the most underrated WRs in the game right now, having caught TD passes in five consecutive games, which is the longest current active streak in the league.
Metcalf has scored in three of his past five games, and Geno Smith has thrown 2+ TD passes in each of his past six. Injuries at RB will compel the Seahawks to rely even more on the passing game, and they want to win this one to maintain their NFC playoff status.
NFL Prop Bets Week 14
Buccaneers vs. 49ers: Under 17.5 1st Half Points (-110)
WAGER: 2 Units
Tampa Bay scored only three points in the first three quarters last week and the Buccaneers have averaged 8.9 first-half points per game, which ranks 29th in the NFL.
The 49ers allow 8.1 first-half points per game, which ranks third in the league. Nick Bosa and the San Francisco defense will have to keep the Tampa Bay offense in check to keep their offense in the game without Jimmy Garoppolo.
Panthers vs Seahawks: SEA To Cover -3 Spread, 1H (-110)
WAGER: 2 Units
Seattle scores 15.2 first-half points at home, which ranks sixth in the NFL. The Panthers have averaged 5.2 points per game on the road, worst in the NFC.
The Seahawks’ defense has not been playing well recently, but the passing game has been impressive and Seattle must win decisively with a tougher schedule ahead.
In Week 13, the undermanned Rams stuck close to the Seahawks, but that was a divisional game and Los Angeles always gives Seattle a tough time. Even though the Panthers have often fought admirably under Steve Wilks, they won’t be able to keep pace with Geno Smith enough to cover the first-half spread.
Dolphins vs Chargers: LAC Over 24.5 Total Points (+100)
WAGER: 1.5 Units
This should be one of the most fun games of the week, as Tagovailoa and Herbert square off in the “Social Media Bowl.” On the field, this will be two ascending and comparable young standout QBs trying to trade offensive punches with the other.
Miami ranks 25th in points per game allowed at 24.1 per game. The Chargers rank 30th at 25.8. We will be getting a shootout here.
The game total is set at 52, and the Chargers will certainly do their part in getting in range of that number and likely beyond it. Herbert is going to have to answer back to Tagovailoa repeatedly as the Miami QB bounces back from his worst game of the season.
Vikings vs Lions: MIN 21-30 Total Points Band (+135)
WAGER: 1 Unit
Detroit has not allowed more than 30 points since Week 8 and just once since Week 4. The Bills scored 28 points vs the Lions in Week 12.
Minnesota won 28-24 when these teams last met in Week 3. Detroit has been playing much better of late, allowing 19.8 points per game in its last five.
Chiefs vs Broncos: Under 5 Total TDs (-130)
WAGER: 1 Unit
Denver’s league-worst offense has not been able to notch more than one TD in its last four games, and the Broncos have failed to score more than 11 points six times this season.
The Broncos’ defense is the best in the AFC in points allowed (17.0 per game). The Chiefs may not race away in terms of points scored, and Denver won’t be able to score enough to push the TD total past the projected number.
Texans vs Cowboys: Cowboys Over 30.5 Points (-105)
WAGER: 1 Unit
In the mismatch of Texas, there is no doubt that Dallas will score a lot of points, it’s just a matter of whether they will go over 30 or not. Houston has not allowed an opponent to score over 30 points since Week 7.
The Eagles’ second-ranked scoring offense scored 29 points vs the Texans in Week 9, and Miami (No. 8) finished with 30 in Week 12. No team is rolling quite like Dallas, though, as the Cowboys are attempting to overwhelm all opponents with their offense.
Dallas has scored 40-plus points in three of its last five games, averaging 39.8 points per game during that span.
