Week 14 has another loaded NFL betting slate chock full of games with playoff implications.
While this 13-game slate only features two games where both teams have a winning record, this is a prime chance for some of the inferior teams around the league to play spoiler to their superior foes.
Last week, I had my best NFL best bets record of the year, going 4-1 and up a much-needed four units. Can this begin a heater to finish the year strong? It’s time to find out.
Jeff Hicks’s 2023 NFL Best Bets Record: 33-35 (-6.36 Units)
*All odds and lines are current as of 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Dec. 5.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet
Patriots vs Steelers Under 30.5 Points (-115)
ESPN Bet Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
It’s the much-anticipated Bailey Zappe vs Mitchell Trubisky matchup we have been waiting for. There is not much to like in this game except the Under, as both backup QBs are not consistent enough to push the ball downfield.
It’s a shame, especially from the Pittsburgh side. This is a prime matchup for Trubisky to target George Pickens as the primary field-stretcher, but I doubt it happens.
Both offenses will lean on the running game, even with the Patriots likely starting Ezekiel Elliott at running back.
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NFL Week 14 ATS Best Bets
Titans vs Dolphins -13.5 (-110)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
I believe the Titans could put up points, but it is terrifying to see that Tennessee is 0-6 away from Nashville and 0-5 as an away underdog this season.
Miami also has an insane 75% red zone scoring rate. That could be realized again Week 14, especially with Titans DT Jeffrey Simmons (knee) expected to miss a couple of weeks.
Keep up with all of our NFL lines for Week 14 and beyond:
NFL Week 14 Over/Under Best Bets
Lions vs Bears Over 40 Points (-110)
BetMGM Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Just looking at both teams over their past three games, they have combined for 46.7 points per game. On top of that, Detroit averages over 25 points per game away from Ford Field, while the Bears average 21.4 at home.
Yes, the Bears can score points.
The concern is this is the second meeting between the two squads in less than one month. Their last game resulted in 57 points on the back of an epic Lions comeback.
An injury to watch is Lions LB Alex Anzalone (hand). If he remains out, expect the Bears to hammer the intermediate passing game.
Eagles vs Cowboys Over 52.5 Points (-110)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
This is the highest implied game total for both teams, but I am confident the Over hits since both teams need this win.
Philly and Dallas rank top five in points per game, and even though the Eagles “only" average 24.3 points on the road, the Cowboys are scoring 41 points per game at home. I also like that when Dallas games hit the Over at Jerry’s World, it really goes Over (16.3 points).
The divisional over is 3-0 for Philadelphia and 3-1 for Dallas.
NFL Week 14 Moneyline Best Bets
Buccaneers (+120) vs Falcons
ESPN Bet Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
This game is a matchup of mediocrity, but it has Moneyline value on the Bucs side. Tampa Bay has a 47.8% chance of winning according to Cover.com, which comes out to odds of (+109). Getting 11 cents in our favor is reason to take this bet.
Both teams are dealing with injuries, but if Falcons CB A.J. Terrell (concussion) cannot play, the Bucs offensive line is good enough to protect Baker Mayfield while passing plays develop.
Tampa is better at getting to the QB by approximately 1.5% over Atlanta, and if there’s one thing Desmond Ridder is bad at (among many), it’s handling pressure.
