This week’s Monday Night Football game is shaping up to be the best of the season so far. The New Orleans Saints (2-2) will head to Arrowhead Stadium for a meeting with the Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) this Monday, Oct. 7, at 8:15 p.m. ET.
The Saints enter this matchup with the league’s No. 1 offense, but a pair of narrow losses in Weeks 3 and 4 have tempered expectations following an especially hot start. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are one of two remaining undefeated teams in the NFL, but injuries are beginning to take their toll.
Can Kansas City stay perfect when the Saints come marching in? Here are the latest Saints vs Chiefs odds for MNF Week 5, plus my best bets and predictions.
Updated MNF Odds Comparison
This likely would have been projected to be a much closer matchup had New Orleans avoided losses in each of the last two weeks, but as such, the Saints are 5-point underdogs in Kansas City. The Over/Under is set at a reasonable 42 points, which is on the low end compared to the rest of Week 5’s NFL action.
All NFL odds used for these Monday Night Football predictions are current as of Tuesday, Oct. 1, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
MNF Implied Scores & Team Totals
Chiefs 23.5, Saints 18.5
The Saints are projected to score just under 19 points, which is well below their season average of 31.8 points per game but right in line with how they’ve performed over the last two weeks. Despite mounting injuries, the Chiefs are being given around 23 points against a solid defense.
Take a look at the best Monday Night Football odds for the 2024 NFL season.
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Monday Night Football Prediction
MNF Score Prediction: Chiefs 20, Saints 16
The Saints looked like one of the league’s best teams early on, but it’s getting more difficult to figure out how good they really are. After scoring at least 44 points in each of its first two games, New Orleans has combined for 36 over the last two weeks.
It isn’t just the offense that’s regressing to the mean, either. The Saints gave up 460 yards in Week 3’s loss to the Eagles and were only able to come up with one takeaway against the Falcons in Week 4.
The Chiefs look like another tough challenge. Kansas City may be banged-up, but a win is never out of reach when Patrick Mahomes is on the field. That proved true this past Sunday when the two-time MVP rallied from a 10-0 deficit to score 17 unanswered points in a win over the Chargers.
It won’t be easy, but I’m counting on Mahomes and the Chiefs to stay perfect. New Orleans is clearly still figuring things out, and taking down the defending champions in primetime seems like a tall task.
Monday Night Football Bet Tips
Keep these bet tips and trends in mind before making your Monday Night Football bets.
- New Orleans and Kansas City are both 3-1 against the spread.
- Overs are a combined 5-3 for the Saints and Chiefs.
- Patrick Mahomes has gone 7-3 on Monday Night Football in his career.
Monday Night Football Best Bets
MNF Over/Under Pick: Saints @ Chiefs Under 42 Points (-108)
Given the state of the offense, I wouldn’t count on the Chiefs putting up a massive scoring total anytime soon. This team has been forced to rely on its depth with injuries to several top contributors at WR and RB, making points somewhat hard to come by.
The same goes for the Saints, who may still be adjusting to Klint Kubiak’s new offense. Derek Carr has looked more human lately, and Alvin Kamara has one touchdown over his last two appearances.
Kansas City also remains impressive defensively, limiting opponents to just two rushing touchdowns and 18 points per game through Week 4. The Chiefs have allowed 70.3 rushing yards per game over their last three.
The trends point toward the Over — and it’s enticing at this relatively low total — but the Under is the way to go here. Lock it in with your best NFL bet today.
MNF Pick Against the Spread: Saints +5 (-108) vs Saints
This one could be closer than expected, especially if the Saints can recapture some of their early-season form. Even still, the Chiefs don’t look equipped to blow anybody out right now, so New Orleans should be in position to keep this within a score.
The Saints’ two losses have come by a combined margin of five points, which suggests they have what it takes to stay competitive when things aren’t going according to plan.
Monday Night Football Prop Bet
Travis Kelce: 89+ Receiving Yards (+200) vs Saints
The Chiefs are looking especially thin at wide receiver with Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown both potentially out for the remainder of the season. Unless Kansas City finds help from outside the organization, we should expect Travis Kelce to take on an even larger role moving forward.
The star tight end has been underwhelming to begin the year, but he looked more like himself in Week 4, catching seven passes for 89 yards. He only met or surpassed that total in five out of 21 games in 2023, but the Chiefs are desperate right now, and Kelce should be capable of handling a more significant workload.
The Saints are much better against the run than they are at defending the pass, and with Isiah Pacheco sidelined, we should expect Kansas City to take an air-heavy approach to Monday’s game anyway. At (+200), this is worth the risk.
Monday Night Football Parlay
Best MNF Parlay (+400)
- Saints +5 (-108)
- Under 42 Points (-108)
- 1Q Under 7.5 Points (-118)
My best Monday Night Football parlay starts with the Saints covering as 5-point underdogs. New Orleans has gone 2-0 against the spread on the road this season, while Kansas City is 1-1 ATS at Arrowhead.
As mentioned above, I’m also going with the Under at 42 points. The Chiefs’ offense is underperforming while they deal with numerous injuries, and the Saints would be wise to lean on their defense.
Finally, I’m taking the first-quarter Under at 7.5 points. Kansas City has gone scoreless in the frame in each of its last two games, and it looks vulnerable to more slow starts without Rice and Pacheco.
