Week 1 of the NFL season concludes with a Monday Night Football showdown between two AFC West rivals.
The Denver Broncos will visit the Kansas City Chiefs, with much of the attention on Patrick Mahomes as he makes his first regular-season appearance since suffering a torn ACL last season.
Mahomes’ return adds another layer to an already intriguing divisional matchup, especially with Denver looking to build on last year’s success and Kansas City hoping to re-establish itself as an AFC contender.
Keep reading to see the latest Broncos vs Chiefs odds and my MNF best bets for Week 1.
Updated MNF Odds Comparison
All NFL odds used for these Monday Night Football predictions are current as of Sunday, Sep. 6, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
MNF Implied Scores & Team Totals
Broncos 20.25, Chiefs 22.75
Oddsmakers are giving Kansas City a slight edge at home, but the implied scores suggest this is expected to be a close, relatively low-scoring game.
The Broncos feel a little undervalued here because they have the more well-rounded roster from top to bottom. Denver brings a strong defense, a capable offense, and fewer obvious weaknesses than Kansas City entering Week 1.
Patrick Mahomes returning from a torn ACL obviously raises the Chiefs’ ceiling, but it’s fair to wonder how sharp the offense will look in his first game back.
With Denver built to compete on both sides of the ball, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Broncos outperform their 20.25-point team total and push Kansas City throughout Monday night.
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Monday Night Football Predictions
MNF Score Prediction: Broncos 21, Chiefs 17
Kansas City will have the home-field advantage, but this is a difficult spot for Patrick Mahomes to immediately look like his old self in his first regular-season game back from a torn ACL.
Denver has the defensive personnel to pressure Mahomes without constantly sending extra rushers, which could force Kansas City into a more conservative offensive approach than we’re used to seeing.
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The Broncos also have enough offensive balance to take advantage if their defense consistently gives them good field position. They don’t need to turn this into a shootout to win. New addition Jaylen Waddle could make a major impact on their offense.
Kansas City should keep things close at Arrowhead, but Denver looks better equipped to control the game on both sides of the ball.
I’ll take the Broncos to spoil Mahomes’ return with a narrow 21-17 win.
Monday Night Football Bet Tips
Keep these Monday Night Football bet tips and trends in mind before making your Broncos vs Chiefs best bets.
- The Broncos added Jaylen Waddle this offseason, giving Bo Nix a legitimate No. 1 receiver and another explosive element in the passing game.
- Kansas City could lean more heavily on Kenneth Walker and the running game, especially while Patrick Mahomes works his way back into form.
- Mahomes is playing his first regular-season game since tearing his ACL, so it may take some time before he looks completely comfortable moving around and extending plays again.
Monday Night Football Best Bets
MNF Over/Under Pick: Broncos @ Chiefs: Under 42.5 Points (-110)
This matchup has the ingredients for a slower, lower-scoring game, starting with Denver’s defense facing Patrick Mahomes in his first regular-season action since tearing his ACL.
Mahomes may need some time to get fully comfortable again, especially against a Broncos defense capable of creating pressure and limiting explosive plays.
Kansas City could also lean more heavily on Kenneth Walker and the running game rather than asking Mahomes to immediately carry the offense through the air.
Denver should be able to move the ball at times, but this doesn’t feel like a matchup where either team needs to play aggressively from the start.
With Mahomes working his way back and both teams having reasons to keep things controlled, I like the Under 42.5 on Monday night.
MNF Pick Against the Spread: Broncos +3 (-120) at Chiefs
This line feels a little too generous to Kansas City based largely on home-field advantage and Patrick Mahomes’ reputation.
Denver looks like the better team from top to bottom, with a more complete roster and fewer questions entering Week 1.
The Broncos should be able to make Mahomes uncomfortable in his first game back from a torn ACL, while their offense has enough weapons to keep pace even if Kansas City finds some early success.
Getting a full field goal with the team I believe is stronger overall is too much value to pass up.
Back Denver +3 with your NFL pick of the day.
Monday Night Football Prop Bet
MNF Prop Bet: Patrick Mahomes Under 32.5 Pass Attempts (-128)
Kansas City has every reason to ease Mahomes back into action rather than immediately asking him to throw 33+ times in his first game returning from a torn ACL.
With Kenneth Walker giving the Chiefs a legitimate option on the ground, a more run-heavy game plan would make sense, especially against a Denver defense that can make life difficult on obvious passing downs.
Keeping Mahomes out of unnecessary dropbacks also helps limit the number of hits he takes while he gets reacclimated to game speed.
Unless Kansas City falls behind early and is forced to abandon the run, I expect the Chiefs to keep his passing volume under control.
That makes Under 32.5 pass attempts my favorite Mahomes prop for Monday night.
Monday Night Football Parlay
Best MNF Same-Game Parlay (+284)
- Broncos ML (+120)
- Under 42.5 (-110)
I already like Denver +3 as my spread pick, so adding some exposure to the moneyline gives me a chance to capitalize on the Broncos winning outright at plus odds.
That fits with my overall view of this matchup. Denver looks like the more complete team, while Kansas City has more uncertainty with Patrick Mahomes returning from a torn ACL.
The Under also pairs well with a Broncos upset. If Denver controls the game with its defense and Kansas City leans more on the run, this could turn into the low-scoring matchup I’m expecting.
With Broncos +3 already in play, I like taking a smaller swing on the moneyline for extra value and combining it with Under 42.5 for my best Monday Night Football parlay.
