My outlook is improving as I head into the newest week of NFL prop picks. My results have been much better over the past two weeks, especially in player props, where I hit on four of six recommended wagers in each week.
There were more painful near-misses, though, such as taking the Eagles to go Over 14.5 first-half points, and they scored 14. I targeted the Vikings to land in the 21-30 total points band and they scored 20.
In NFL Week 10, I am eyeing a few mediocre offenses - two for Under plays and another to keep its total score within its recent uninspiring ranges.
Scott Engel 2022 NFL Props Record: 38-72 (-43.5 units)
Before reading Scott’s picks, toggle with the widget below for our full list of NFL Week 10 player props:
NFL Player Props Week 10
NFL Week 10 odds used for prop bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise noted) and are current as of Friday, Nov. 11.
Saquon Barkley: Over 121.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) vs Texans
WAGER: 2 Units
Saquon Barkley may soar past this number on rushing yards alone. Houston has the worst rushing defense in the league and has allowed an NFL-high 1,235 rushing yards to running backs in eight games.
We have seen Barkley get past the projected total four times this season. He totaled a season-low 62 yards from scrimmage in his last outing, so I am expecting a big rebound performance that will make this wager a prime NFL bet.
Barkley is also a lock for Over 3.5 receptions at +110, so wager two or more units there.
Noah Fant: Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-115) vs Buccaneers
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Noah Fant is coming off his best game as a Seahawk, as he caught five passes for 96 yards vs Arizona. He has gotten past this projected number only three times this season, and Seattle employs a tight end committee in the passing game, but Fant could again be incorporated significantly enough into the passing game in a good matchup.
Tampa Bay ranks 26th in receiving yards allowed to TEs, and the Seahawks staff may want to keep Fant building off the momentum from last week.
Aaron Rodgers: Under 234.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Cowboys
WAGER: 1.5 Units
The sagging Green Bay passing game lost its best big-play threat when Romeo Doubs went on injured reserve with an ankle injury. Aaron Rodgers even misses Randall Cobb by now.
Rodgers has failed to hit the projected yardage total in two of his past three games and won’t get there against the league’s fourth-ranked pass defense. In the past, we would look for Rodgers to awaken in what might be a marquee matchup, but he doesn’t have the playmakers needed to show signs of life against such a sturdy opponent.
Patrick Mahomes 300+ Passing Yards, Travis Etienne Rush TD (+310), Jaguars at Chiefs
WAGER: 1 Unit
I will eagerly go in on this weekly special. The Jaguars have allowed the most passing yards to QBs over the last four weeks among AFC teams, and Mahomes has flown by the projected yardage total in his last three games.
Etienne has rushed for four TDs in his past three games, and Kansas City also ranks 30th in receiving yards allowed to RBs, so Etienne could score as either a runner or receiver.
Khalil Herbert: Anytime TD Scorer (+120) vs Lions
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Lions have allowed 11 rushing TDs this season to running backs. Only the Texans (12) have allowed more.
The Chicago offense has busted out recently and the limp Detroit defense is going to have an incredible amount of difficulty handling the Bears’ newly redesigned RPO attack. Herbert has five rushing TDs from scrimmage this season (four rushing), and it is possible both he and David Montgomery (+100 as an Anytime TD Scorer) will get into the end zone.
Chris Olave: Anytime TD Scorer (+160) at Steelers
WAGER: 1 Unit
Olave has not landed in the end zone in his last three games, and he only has two receiving TDs so far in his rookie season. Now, he gets a matchup where he has a much better shot of cashing in with a TD.
Even if Andy Dalton gets pulled at some point during the game, either New Orleans QB is going to have a strong chance of connecting with Olave for a scoring play. The Steelers have allowed 13 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, the most in the league.
NFL Prop Bets Week 10
Lions vs Bears: CHI To Score Over 25.5 Points (-110)
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Chicago’s offense has exploded over the past three games as the coaching staff has redesigned the offense to better suit the strengths of Justin Fields. The Bears have scored 117 total points during that span.
Detroit allows 29.3 points per game, most in the NFL, and allows 27 points per game in road matchups. In divisional games, you can sometimes expect lower scoring numbers than usual, but not in this case, as the Lions won’t be capable of scheming well enough against a recently reworked and potent offense.
Seahawks vs Buccaneers: TB Under 23.5 Total Points (-115)
WAGER: 1.5 Units
The Seahawks defense has tightened up significantly during their four-game winning streak. During that span, Seattle has allowed 16.5 points per game and has not allowed more than 23 points in a game.
- Check out the latest NFL Week 10 Odds for more on the upcoming slate of games.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s offense has continually sputtered, averaging 14.7 points per game over its last four, and it has not scored more than 22 points in those four games. The Seattle secondary has not allowed more than two TD passes in a game in its last four, and Tom Brady has passed for more than one TD in a game just once this season.
Texans vs Giants: NYG Over 2.5 Total TDs (-105)
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Texans have the worst rushing defense in the NFL and the worst overall defense in the AFC. Those are rankings that point to disaster against Saquon Barkley and one of the best rushing QBs in the game, Daniel Jones.
New York could get two rushing TDs from Barkley alone. Davis Mills has also thrown eight interceptions, and he can position the Giants favorably to punch a TD in.
Falcons vs Panthers: Over 5 Total Touchdowns (+100)
WAGER: 1 Unit
These two teams average a combined 50.3 points per game allowed. The Falcons rank 31st in total defense, and the Panthers rank 27th.
When these two teams last faced each other on Oct. 30, they combined for eight total TDs, with each scoring four. The Panthers fired two defensive coaches this week, but we may not see any significant impact of those moves just yet.
UPDATE: Based on projected adverse weather conditions for this game, I have removed the bet ticket and this play is no longer recommended.
Browns vs Dolphins: CLE 21-30 Total Points Band (+145)
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Browns have scored in the 20-30 point range in six of their eight games played this season. Miami allows 24.9 points per game.
The Dolphins allowed 32 points to a surging Bears offense last week, but the Browns don’t figure to have enough firepower to get over 30 points. Still, they should be able to get over 20 points, because of their strong running game and a QB (Jacoby Brissett) who is used to playing in the South Florida conditions.
Cardinals vs Rams: LAR 11-20 Total Points Band (+190)
WAGER: 1 Unit
Los Angeles has scored in the 11-20 range in each of its last two games and has come within two points of the range, or landed in it in four of its past five games. The Cardinals are allowing 22.6 points per game and will likely hold the Rams below that total in a divisional matchup.
When these teams last met in Week 3, the Cardinals held the Rams to 12 points. Matthew Stafford has passed for more than one TD in a game just once this season, and Los Angeles has the second-worst rushing yards per game average in the NFL.
UPDATE: Matthew Stafford (concussion) is now uncertain for Week 10, so I have removed the betting ticket and this wager is no longer recommended.
Jaguars vs Chiefs: JAC Covers +6 1H Spread (-115)
WAGER: 1 Unit
Jacksonville has lost five in a row, but it has been sticking close in its ultimately futile efforts, especially in the first half. In their last five losses, the Jaguars have not trailed at halftime by more than six points, and they were behind by six in a loss to the mighty Eagles in the first of those defeats.
Kansas City averages 14.4 points per game in the first half, but the Jaguars are not far behind enough in that department to expect a quick blowout as some might speculate. Jacksonville averages 11.2 points per game in the first half.
Packers vs Cowboys: GB Under 1.5 Total TDs (+155)
WAGER: 1 Unit
In past seasons, we would have reasons to believe that Aaron Rodgers could lead his team to an offensive turnaround after a down outing. But after Green Bay scored nine points against the league’s worst defense in a loss to Detroit, I can’t expect any sudden resurgence from this year’s version of the Packers.
Green Bay has failed to score more than 10 points twice in its last four games. Dallas has held three of its last five opponents to 10 points or less and has allowed 16.6 points per game this season, third-best in the NFL.
