Of the four remaining quarterbacks in the NFL playoffs, no one has less experience than Brock Purdy.
The seventh-round rookie, who was selected by the San Francisco 49ers with the final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, has exceeded expectations to this point but endured his shakiest start in the divisional-round victory over the Dallas Cowboys.
Will he deliver a bounce-back performance on Sunday? Or is “Mr. Irrelevant" in for a long afternoon against the top-seeded Eagles in the NFC Championship Game?
Let’s dig into my favorite Brock Purdy props for this weekend’s crucial matchup.
All NFC Championship Game odds used in these props are current as of Wednesday, Jan. 25, at 10 a.m. ET.
Brock Purdy Prop Pick of the Day
Read more on this Brock Purdy player prop below.
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Brock Purdy Passing Attempts Prop
Brock Purdy: Under 31.5 Pass Attempts (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
Purdy has only gone Over this number once in his seven career starts and that was in a Week 17 overtime victory against the Raiders, who ranked 31st in pass defense DVOA during the regular season, per Football Outsiders.
The Iowa State product likely won’t be asked to throw as often against an Eagles defense that ranked first in that category and finished 21st against the run. Kyle Shanahan‘s scheme already has the 49ers operating as one of the most balanced run-to-pass offenses in the NFL, but he’ll likely try to protect Purdy for as long as he can against Philadelphia’s ball-hawking secondary.
This matchup also pits two rush-heavy teams against each other, so there’s a decent chance that the constant grinding of the clock will also play its part in preventing Purdy from firing 32-plus passes.
Find more 49ers vs Eagles betting plays
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Brock Purdy Passing Yards Prop
Brock Purdy: Under 220.5 Passing Yards (-120) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Since I’m taking the Under on Purdy’s passing attempts, it’s pretty natural to correlate that with the Under on his passing yards prop.
The rookie signal-caller has surpassed 220 passing yards in just three of seven starts, and it’s likely he’s facing his toughest test yet on Sunday. Over its 19 games so far this campaign, Philadelphia’s defense is allowing just 203 passing yards per game to quarterbacks.
Only three players (Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, and Kirk Cousins) surpassed this total against the Eagles’ defense, which features elite cornerbacks in Darius Slay and James Bradberry.
Unless things get out of hand early, the 49ers should execute a run-heavy game plan that features Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Elijah Mitchell in a variety of different formations.