For the second straight year, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Cincinnati Bengals with a spot in the Super Bowl on the line.
A lot of the pre-game chatter will focus on the quarterbacks, but both Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow have plenty of talented playmakers to work with on offense.
Who will make the difference in this AFC Championship Game rematch? Let’s dig into our favorite Cincinnati vs Kansas City prop bets for Sunday’s must-see matchup.
All AFC Championship Game odds used in these props are current as of Friday, Jan. 27, at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Before reading John Arlia’s picks, toggle with the widget below for our full list of NFL Conference Championship player props:
Bengals vs Chiefs Player Props
Travis Kelce: Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
After racking up 14 catches, 98 receiving yards, and two touchdowns in the Chiefs’ 27-20 divisional-round victory over the Jaguars, I thought oddsmakers would respond by raising the line on each of Travis Kelce‘s props.
Well, that hasn’t been the case in the receiving yards market, as this number stands essentially where it did last week. While Cincinnati’s defense did rank out better than Jacksonville’s against tight ends during the regular season, it’s pretty clear that Kelce is the focal point of this offense without Tyreek Hill.
Kelce has eclipsed 90 yards in seven straight playoff games, including a 10-catch, 95-yard outing against the Bengals in last year’s AFC Championship Game, so I’m expecting another strong performance despite attracting plenty of attention from Lou Anarumo‘s defense.
Joe Mixon: Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
When discussing the Bengals’ offense, it’s pretty easy to forget about Joe Mixon. The 26-year-old tailback had a career year in 2021, rushing for over 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns, but failed to meet that mark this season.
Mixon was relatively average outside of a five-touchdown (4 rush, 1 rec) performance against the Panthers in early November. However, he saved one of his best performances of the year for last week’s victory over the Bills, rushing for 105 yards and a score on 20 carries.
Find more Bengals vs Chiefs betting plays
With Cincinnati expected to keep this game close, there is the potential for Mixon to get a similar workload this weekend against a Kansas City defense that finished 15th in rush defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders.
Despite losing some steam this season, Mixon still cleared this number in seven of 14 games and missed once by a yard. He ran 21 times for 88 yards against the Chiefs in last year’s AFC Championship Game, and Samaje Perine racked up 106 yards on 21 carries in the regular-season meeting between the two, which Mixon missed with a concussion.
If I’m the Chiefs, I’d rather have Mixon beat me than Burrow, so he should see some relatively empty boxes that will help him clear this number.
Bengals vs Chiefs Prop Bets
Bengals: Win by 1-6 Points (+333) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
This could be me hoping for an incredible game after the divisional round disappointed in terms of drama, but these two teams are incredibly well matched. We have seen as much in the last three meetings, all of which were Cincinnati wins by exactly three points.
If you want to spice things up, I think there’s also some value in the game to go to overtime (+775).
Both Teams to Score 20 or More Points (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
If you don’t feel comfortable picking a side, this feels like a good way to attack this game, which again, should be competitive.
Cincinnati has scored 20-plus points in every game during its 10-game winning streak, and Kansas City has reached that plateau in all but one game this season — a 20-17 loss to the Colts.
This prop has hit in all three prior meetings between Mahomes and Burrow, and even though there are reasonable concerns about Mahomes’ high ankle sprain and Burrow’s banged-up offensive line, I still feel pretty comfortable backing both offenses to get to 20 points.