Heading into the 2022 season, the AFC was projected to be the most competitive conference in NFL history.
With perennial juggernauts like the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, and Bengals all returning top talent, and teams like the Chargers, Colts, Broncos, Dolphins, Raiders, and Browns making significant moves in the offseason, the AFC appeared to be stacked beyond belief.
As we now know, that wasn’t exactly the case. Many of those teams chasing the AFC’s elite vastly underperformed expectations, leaving us with a rematch between Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow in late January. After last season’s epic title game, we should be in for a treat.
Now that the Bengals-Chiefs AFC Championship Game is set, which team is the favorite to win the AFC? And who should you be betting on?
AFC Championship Game Odds & Lines
AFC Championship Game odds used below are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Monday, Jan. 23, at 9 a.m. ET. Be sure to keep tabs on all of our current NFL odds during the NFL playoffs.
AFC Champion Best Bet
Cincinnati Bengals (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
Can Cincinnati repeat as AFC champs?
It certainly looks likely after the Bengals dominated the Bills in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon, eliminating Josh Allen and the preseason Super Bowl favorites with a convincing 27-10 victory.
Cincinnati has won 10 straight games overall and now heads to Kansas City with all the confidence in the world after dethroning the Chiefs at Arrowhead last year.
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Joe Burrow always seems to play his best football when the lights shine the brightest and, perhaps most importantly, his retooled offensive line held up well in the divisional round despite missing guard Alex Cappa and tackle Jonah Williams.
On the other side of the ball, Lou Anarumo has this defense playing at an extremely high level. The Bengals have held their opponents under 20 points in five of their last six games and won the turnover battle in each of their postseason contests.
Going into Kansas City and beating the Chiefs again won’t be easy, even if Patrick Mahomes (sprained ankle) is somewhat limited, but Zac Taylor‘s team has a chip on its shoulder and won’t go down without a fight.
I think there’s value in taking the ever-so-slight underdogs to win this game outright and advance to a second straight Super Bowl.
AFC Champion Contender
Kansas City Chiefs (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
The Chiefs are set to host their fifth consecutive AFC Championship Game on Sunday, which is a remarkable feat in itself. Kansas City won two of the previous four editions, losing the other two games in overtime.
The AFC’s No. 1 seed will have the chance to avenge last year’s overtime heartbreak on Sunday when they host the Bengals, who erased a 21-10 halftime deficit to win 27-24 on Evan McPherson‘s 31-yard field goal in the extra session.
Given the consistent excellence of Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid, it’s very hard to pick against the Chiefs, especially when you’re getting pretty favorable odds at home. However, this team hasn’t been truly tested in some time.
- Want to bet NFC futures? Check out our NFC Championship Odds.
Sure, having to play Chad Henne for part of their 27-20 divisional-round victory over the Jaguars could qualify as a test, but the Chiefs haven’t played an elite team since losing to the Bengals by the same 27-24 scoreline in early December.
Now, they’ll have to overcome a Cincinnati team that clearly has their number with Mahomes potentially hobbled by a sprained ankle. That’s concerning, even when you have an essentially unguardable offensive weapon in Travis Kelce.
You certainly can never count this team out, and as the odds indicate, this game should essentially be a toss-up. Still, I don’t particularly trust the Chiefs’ defense and I think their lack of a consistent secondary weapon on offense could be their downfall.
