The NFL’s Thanksgiving Day triple-header will begin in Detroit, with the Lions (4-6) playing host to Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (7-3). Kickoff is scheduled for Thursday, Nov. 24 at 12:30 p.m. EST.
Oddly, this will be Buffalo’s second straight game played at Ford Field. The Bills’ Week 11 victory over the Cleveland Browns was moved to Detroit due to significant snowfall in Western New York.
Meanwhile, the Lions return home on a three-game winning steak with the hope of snapping a five-game losing skid on Thanksgiving Day. That won’t be easy against a Bills team that remains the favorite to win Super Bowl 57.
Let’s dig into these Thanksgiving NFL odds to pick out our Buffalo vs Detroit best bets and predictions.
Bills vs Lions Odds
As of Monday afternoon, the Bills are nine-point road favorites for this matchup at Caesars Sportsbook. That number has dropped since Friday, when the Lions were double-digit underdogs.
Take a look at the best Bills odds and Lions odds for the 2022 NFL season.
Bills vs Lions Implied Totals
Bills 31.5, Lions 22.5
The Over/Under currently sits at 54 points, making this the matchup with the highest projected total of the Week 12 slate. Oddsmakers have the Bills eventually overwhelming the Lions by more than a touchdown.
Bills vs Lions Pick of the Day
Read more on this Bills vs Lions bet below.
Bills vs Lions Prediction
Bills 35, Lions 27
It’s been a weird few weeks for the Bills, but they should be able to get on track against the Lions on Thanksgiving Day. Detroit’s defense ranks last in the league in both points (28.2) and yards (415.9) per game allowed, which is not a good formula for slowing down this Buffalo attack.
Josh Allen will be able to hit big plays when targeting Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis down the field, and Devin Singletary and James Cook should be able to build off their 86-yard performances last week against a defense that allows 153.7 rushing yards per game (second most in the NFL).
On the other side of the ball, Buffalo’s defense ranks amongst the league’s best, but has taken a step back in recent weeks. That unit will be tested by a Lions offense that is way more efficient at home, averaging 31.6 points per game at Ford Field this season.
Jared Goff has established a fantastic connection with top wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the two-headed rushing attack of D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams — which combined for four scores in last week’s win over the Giants — should keep this offense in manageable third downs all afternoon long.
This should be a chess match between two entertaining offenses.
Bills vs Lions Bet Tips
Here are a few Bills vs Lions betting trends to consider before making your bets:
- Buffalo is 5-4-1 against the spread this season, including a 2-2-1 mark as a road favorite.
- Detroit is 6-4 ATS so far this year, including a 2-1 mark as a home underdog.
- The Over is 4-1 in Lions home games this season, but 0-5 in Bills road contests.
Bills vs Lions Best Bets
Lions +9 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Scoring is down in the NFL this season, making it hard for heavy favorites to create enough margin to cover similar spreads. And while this projects to be a high-scoring game, Detroit has usually held up its end of the bargain in these back-and forth contests.
The Lions have only lost two games this season by double digits, both of which came on the road. At home, they have lost one-possession games to likely playoff teams in the Eagles, Seahawks, and Dolphins, with all three games having 58 points or more.
Dan Campbell‘s teams are known to fight until the final whistle, so a backdoor cover late is certainly within the realm of possibility here. As long as this number stays at 8.5 or higher, I like the Lions to cover in this spot.
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Over 54 Points at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
These two teams rank in the top 10 league-wide in seconds per play, per Football Outsiders, which means we should see both offenses moving at a steady pace on Thursday afternoon.
Detroit has proven capable of keeping pace on offense, especially at home in the dome, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this game is played in the 60s.
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Bills vs Lions Props
Check out the best Bills vs Lions player prop bets this week with our props comparison tool. Click on “Show More Games" below to find the Buffalo vs Detroit game and see all of its prop bets.
