NFL Week 16 Best Bets | Predictions & Picks for NFL Week 16

Last Updated: Dec 21, 2021

We are down to the final three weeks of the 2021 season, and Week 16 has several high-quality games with playoff implications. It’s also a great schedule as there are games on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

To get you prepared for the week ahead, here are our best bets and picks for Week 16 of the NFL season. Please note that all NFL gameday odds and lines are current as of 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday, December 21.

Marcus Mosher’s Best Bets NFL Betting Record: 52-36

Cleveland Browns vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction

It’s been quite a week for the Cleveland Browns. They were scheduled to play the Las Vegas Raiders on Saturday, but that game got moved to Monday afternoon. Now, they’ll travel to Green Bay on a short week to take on the Packers on Christmas Day.

It remains to be seen who will be available for the Browns after putting over 20 players on the COVID-19 list in the last week. Still, it’s hard to see the Packers slipping up in this game, especially with the No. 1 seed in the NFC in their control.

Look for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to have a huge game in primetime and to beat the Browns with ease.

Browns vs. Packers Prediction: Packers 34, Browns 20

Browns vs. Packers Best Bet: Packers -7.5 (-104) on TwinSpires

Wager: 1 Unit

Aaron Rodgers might be the MVP of the league so far this season, and with just three games left to go, it’s officially his award to lose. Look for him to put on a show in Week 16 with a huge national audience.

Cleveland’s secondary has been torched this season, and this feels like a game in which Rodgers wraps up the award. The Packers should be able to win this game by double-digits and, thus, covering the 7.5 point spread.

Browns vs. Packers Best Bet: Over 45.5 (+102) on TwinSpires

Wager: 0.5 Unit

The Packers have scored at least 31 points in four-straight games and should have no problem doing it again. The bigger question is, can the Browns score enough for the over to hit?

The answer is probably yes, as they should still be able to run the ball. But don’t expect Cleveland to win a ton through the air. The over is the smart bet here, but don’t wager too many units on this one.

Sportsbook Play of the Day

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Arizona Cardinals Prediction

The Cardinals were in a tough spot last week. Coming off a divisional loss on a short week, they laid an egg against the Lions in Detriot. But with the NFC West division on the line, don’t expect that to happen again.

The Colts beat the New England Patriots in Week 15, but the play of Carson Wentz was not encouraging. Can he get back on track on Christmas against the Cardinals and their pass rush? That seems unlikely.

Look for the Cardinals to win a close game at home in Week 16.

Colts vs. Cardinals Prediction: Cardinals 24, Colts 21

Colts vs. Cardinals Best Bet: Cardinals -1.5 (+102) on TwinSpires

Wager: 1 Unit

The Cardinals have the better quarterback in this matchup and are at home. They are still a really good team despite back-to-back losses. The fact that they are less than a field goal favorite in this game makes them an even better bet.

Look for Kyler Murray and the rest of the offense to play a better game in Week 16. It’s still hard to trust Wentz on the road against a big-time opponent.

Colts vs. Cardinals Best Bet: Under 49 (-106) on TwinSpires

Wager: 1 Unit

Both teams will want to run the ball in this one, especially the Colts. Jonathan Taylor has a combined 109 carries over the last four games, and it stands to reason that he will see even more work against the Cardinals in Week 16.

Expect this to be a slow-paced game with both teams trying to establish the run.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction

One of the week’s biggest games will feature the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Kansas City Chiefs. Pittsburgh desperately needs a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. With a win, they could be just a half-game back of the division with games still left against the Browns and Baltimore Ravens.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs currently hold the No. 1 seed in the AFC and would love nothing more than to lock up a first-round bye. But with games still left against the Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, and Denver Broncos, they can ill-afford to slip up.

This game will be one of the most-watched games of the year, and you can bet that it’s going to be close going into the fourth quarter. Take the Chiefs to win at home, especially since they are coming off 10-days rest. But don’t be surprised when the Steelers make this a game late.

Steelers vs. Chiefs Prediction: Chiefs 23, Steelers 20

Steelers vs. Chiefs Best Bet: Steelers +10.5 (-118) on TwinSpires

Wager: 1 Unit

It’s worth mentioning that Mike Tomlin usually has his team play well against conference opponents. In fact, the Steelers 5-1 ATS in their last six games against AFC opponents. They’ve also had a ton of success against the Chiefs in the past, winning six of their last eight games.

It would be a surprise if the Steelers won this game. However, it won’t be a surprise at all if it comes down to the final possession. Take the Steelers +10.5, as that’s just far too many points in this AFC matchup.

Steelers vs. Chiefs Best Bet: Under 46.5 points (-110) on TwinSpires

Wager: 1 Unit

Everyone knows how well Kansas City’s defense has played over the last two months. Even against the Chargers, they got multiple steps in the red zone against one of the most dangerous offenses in the league.

However, Pittsburgh’s defense has stepped up recently as they forced four turnovers against the Titans in Week 15. Don’t be surprised if this is a low-scoring game with both teams trying to keep it close until the end. Look for a 23-20 type of game in Kansas City as both teams lean on their defense to win this game.

Thanks for reading our NFL Week 16 Best Bets! For more NFL betting tips, check out our look at our NFL Week 16 Parlay Picks.


Marcus Mosher

Marcus Mosher is an NFL analyst at The Game Day, residing in Erie, PA. He covers the NFL from a betting and fantasy perspective, producing written and video content. Marcus currently hosts multiple football-related podcasts and is a managing editor at USA Today’s Sports Media Group covering the Las Vegas Raiders. He has previously worked at The Athletic and Bleacher Report.

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