Week 14 of the NFL season is upon us. Now that we are well into December, we have a much better idea of which teams are contenders and which are pretenders.
Now that we have a solid sample size of games to judge teams on, team-adjusted stats like DVOA have a ton of value. We also have to be aware of how injuries have affected teams to this point.
As always, context is key.
With that in mind, let’s dive into some NFL Week 14 upset predictions and best bets. Please note that all NFL gameday odds and lines are current as of 6:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, December 9.
NFL Week 14 Upset Predictions
Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After playing four of their last five games on the road, the red-hot Tampa Bay Buccaneers will finally return home to face a Buffalo Bills team that just got embarrassed at home by Bill Belichick. They knew a run play was coming every single time but just could not stop it.
Nevertheless, we can throw last week’s garbage Bills outing away due to the volatile win conditions and focus on Josh Allen‘s year as a whole, which has displayed that his blossoming last season was real.
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The Bills don’t have much of a run game outside of Allen, but will likely incorporate more of Matt Breida to add some element of a ground game to the offense. 84% of his 20 rushes this season have gone outside, which is exactly where you want to attack Tampa given their insane interior of Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh.
- Read our full Bills vs Buccaneers Predictions & Best Bets.
The Buccaneers are still without WR3 Antonio Brown but are getting massive production out of Rob Gronkowski whose re-emergence this season was not foreseen anywhere. Tampa runs a balanced attack of WRs, TEs, and Leonard Fournette yet have not faced a defense close to the Bills since Week 8 in their loss to New Orleans. After multiple cushy matchups, they could be caught by surprise.
Upset Prediction: Bills 30, Buccaneers 24
Bills vs Buccaneers Upset Picks
Upset Pick: Bills Moneyline (+150) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
The Bills lost to “Tom Brady Jr." this past week, but take on the real Tom Brady and win a game that many might count them out for despite possessing the No. 1 defense according to DVOA and a healthy team overall.
Tampa will by all means keep this a close game and deserves to be favored, yet they are in a different position than the Bills with the division all but locked up. Buffalo is desperate at 7-5 and will pull out all the stops in what may become a must-win game to keep their division hopes alive.
Back the Bills and make this your NFL bet of the day.
Upset Pick: Over 53.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Both defenses rank near the top of the NFL and are sturdy against both the ground and air game, but this game will highlight two of the best quarterbacks in the league.
While Allen is no Brady, he is very skilled in his own right and has every weapon in the passing game healthy and at his disposal.
Washington Football Team vs Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys and Washington Football Team square off for the first time this season on Sunday. Both teams are making their playoff push, and their matchups should be what swings the division given that they are just two games apart.
A sweep by Washington would put them in the driver’s seat for the division, but the most likely scenario is that these two teams split their series.
Dallas is sitting at 8-4 and has lost some momentum with just two wins over the past five games, which is uncharacteristic of this emergent powerhouse.
They just took a decent hit with the news of Tony Pollard‘s torn plantar fascia, which comes after their receiving corps just got fully healthy. Amari Cooper is reportedly back without limitations post-COVID, and Michael Gallup has looked great over the last few weeks.
- Read our full Cowboys vs Washington Predictions & Best Bets.
On the opposite end of this matchup, Washington is getting healthier across the board but just lost starting TE Logan Thomas. Luckily, they have some depth there and can manage.
Given that they try to attack through the ground first and foremost, getting RB Antonio Gibson healthy from his midseason shin fracture is a revelation. He hasn’t been a world-beater in terms of efficiency, but the workload of late is tremendous and a threat opposing teams must account for.
It is only made tougher with offseason signee Curtis Samuel back in the mix misdirecting defenses on jet motion.
Speaking of defense, Dallas’ is surprisingly potent with even more upside now that star EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence is back in the mix. The front-four plus Micah Parsons is strong along with parts of their secondary, but there is a weakness to exploit as they struggle to stop the run (No. 19 in DVOA).
Washington’s is looking stronger as well and will not be as much of a pushover as their early-season struggles suggested.
Upset Prediction: Washington 24, Cowboys 23
Washington vs Cowboys Upset Picks
Upset Pick: Washington Moneyline (+170) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Washington is playing much better despite losing Chase Young and Montez Sweat. While Sweat was set to return this week, he is now on the COVID List and ineligible to play.
Nevertheless, with the recent spike in play from high-priced offseason addition CB William Jackson III and a move of S Landon Collins to the box full-time, they are much more respectable than the first-half on defense.
Pair that with a run game that can take advantage of Dallas’ defensive weakness, and you can win at home.
Upset Pick: Under 48 Total Points (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
While the Cowboys are one of the league’s best offenses at full strength, the loss of Tony Pollard puts more pressure on a hobbled Ezekiel Elliot to carry the load, which he has not done over the past month.
Taking this phase of the Cowboys’ attack out of the game while controlling the clock with their No. 23-ranked pace will be enough to hit the Under.