Bills vs Buccaneers Predictions Week 14 | NFL Pick of the Day

In what many had as a preseason Super Bowl matchup (and still could be), the Buffalo Bills will head south this weekend to take on Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

While the Buccaneers (9-3) are currently toward the playoffs, the Bills (7-5) haven’t quite lived up to expectations and are reeling after suffering a tough home loss to the New England Patriots.

With the Buccaneers jockeying for position atop the NFC and the Bills fighting to stay in the playoff hunt in an extremely crowded AFC, there are a lot of playoff ramifications at stake in this game.

Let’s take a look at how each team’s recent play will affect this matchup in our NFL pick of the day series.

Please note that all NFL gameday odds are current as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Friday, December 10.

Bills vs Buccaneers Prediction

The Buccaneers have now won seven of their last nine games (including their last three) and are still fighting for a chance at the NFC’s top seed.

Brady is somehow a top MVP candidate at 44 years old, and he’s benefitted from a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski and Leonard Fournette to go along with old faithfuls Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

The Bucs will again be without Antonio Brown this week, but they’ve learned to get by without him at this point.


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The Bills are coming off one of the stranger games in recent memory, and Josh Allen will be happy to not have to throw into 40 mile-per-hour winds in Tampa this weekend.

Buffalo’s offense has been struggling to find their groove this season, however, as they haven’t been able to rely on their ground game to complement a strong receiver corps in Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, Gabriel Davis, and Dawson Knox.

While both teams have strong defenses, both units have been dealing with injuries all season so the opposing offenses should be able to move the ball this week. We don’t know which Jekyll and Hyde Bills squad will show up in Tampa, but we do know the defending champ Bucs will bring their A-game. And I think that’s going to be too much for Buffalo to handle.

Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Bills 21

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

Bills quarterback Josh Allen will look to bounce back in Week 14 after struggling in windy conditions on Monday Night Football. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)


Bills vs Buccaneers Best Bets

Best Bet: Buccaneers -3.5 (-105) at Caesars

Wager: 0.5 Units

spread

-105

Buccaneers to Cover -3.5 Spread vs Bills (NFL Week 14)

BUF @ TB | 12/12, 4:25 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $39

The simple fact of the matter is that neither of these teams have played many close games this season. To date, both teams have played in just two games each that were decided by three points or less.

That doesn’t mean that’s the outcome we’re looking at this week as we’re more likely to see a playoff-like atmosphere in Tampa Bay, but both of these teams are capable of pulling away from opponents in a hurry.

I’m dropping my confidence down a bit on this play because I think the Bills can hang. But with the Bucs coming into this matchup with an undefeated 5-0 record at home this year, the odds are pointing in their favor to be the team pulling away from the Bills in a hurry.

Best Bet: Buccaneers Moneyline (-175) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

moneyline

-175

Buccaneers to Defeat Bills (NFL Week 14)

BUF @ TB | 12/12, 4:25 PM ET

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If you’ve read the above paragraphs, it should come as no shock that I think the Buccaneers are going to win this one. They’re at home, they’re on more of a hot streak, they have a better overall roster, and they’re simply playing better football right now.

While the Bills have given Brady struggles in the past, that was on a different team with a different (lesser) cast of supporting characters. And Buffalo will be without Tre’Davious White for the rest of the season, so everything is coming up Brady leading into this one.

Best Bet: Under 53.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

over-under

-110

Under 53.5 Total Points in BUF @ TB (NFL Week 14)

BUF @ TB | 12/12, 4:25 PM ET

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Tampa Bay currently leads the league at 31.4 points scored per game, while the Bills come in fifth with a robust 28 points per game average. While those totals would make you think the over was an easy bet here, the defenses may have something to say about that.

On the defensive side of the ball, Tampa Bay is right in the middle of the pack in limiting opponents to 22.5 points per game while the Bills are second-best in the league in allowing just 16.3 points per game to opponents.

While I think both teams will be able to put points on the board, I think both defenses will be able to put the clamps on their opponents enough to make this over too high for my liking.

Nick Raducanu’s 2021 NFL Team vs Team Betting Record: 15-6, +11.5 Units

Thank you for reading our NFL Week 14 Bills vs Buccaneers Predictions! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 14 Best Bets and NFL Week 14 Parlay Picks.

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NFL Betting News

  • Early money slightly leaning towards the over in the 49ers-Rams matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting good two-way action on the over/under for the NFC Championship Game matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 46 points has attracted 55% of the bets and 60% of the money thus far. Much moreso than the AFC Championship Game, the betting splits on the point spread and total in this game are much more evenly split, so the sportsbook does not have too much liability on either at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Los Angeles's -170 moneyline odds have attracted 60% of the bets and 70% of the money.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early bettors give slight lean to the Rams over the 49ers

    Based on the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook, the favored Los Angeles Rams are getting slightly more betting attention in their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Los Angeles's -3.5 point spread has received 65% of the bets and 61% of the handle thus far. Bettors are clearly torn in this matchup considering the Rams have arguably been playing better football through the first two playoff games, while the 49ers have won six consecutive games against the Rams, including a thrilling Week 18 overtime victory in Los Angeles.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early money more than 4/1 on the over in the Bengals-Chiefs matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's over/under in the matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 54.5 points has attracted 75% of the bets and 85% of the money thus far. At this point, the sportsbook has big liability to the Chiefs point spread and the over in this matchup, as their most ideal scenario would be a Bengals cover in a low-scoring game at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Kansas City's -335 moneyline odds have attracted 58% of the bets and 61% of the money.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • Early money 3/1 on the Chiefs over the Bengals

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, as the majority of the action is backing the favored Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Kansas City's -7 point spread has received 61% of the bets and 76% of the handle thus far. Cincinnati is shaping up to be the biggest need of any side or any total this weekend, as the public seems to be enamored with the Chiefs after their thrilling Divisional Round win over Buffalo.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • 49ers-Rams over/under reaches lowest number of the week

    After another line movement, the over/under for the NFC Championship matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams has reached its lowest total of the week.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the 49ers-Rams over/under on Sunday night was posted at 47.5 points. It was quickly bet down to 46.5 in less than 24 hours. However, it has once again moved toward the under, and now currently sits at 46 points. Given that there has not yet been buyback on the over, it is extremely unlikely we see the total get back to anywhere close to the 47.5 points it opened at.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page