Bills quarterback Josh Allen played a near-perfect game in Buffalo’s 47-17 rout of the New England Patriots on Wild Card Weekend, throwing more touchdown passes (five) than incompletions (four).
In all, Allen completed 21-of-25 passes for 308 yards and added 66 rushing yards on just six attempts. Buffalo scored a touchdown on all seven of its offensive possessions before backup Mitch Trubisky salted the game away with a couple of kneel downs.
On Sunday, Allen will lead the Bills into Kansas City for a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game.
Let’s dig in to my favorite Josh Allen prop bets for Sunday’s showdown against the Chiefs.
All NFL gameday odds are updated as of 5 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 20.
Josh Allen Divisional Prop Bets
OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-165) at BetMGM
Wager: 4 Units
After being on the wrong side of Allen’s passing yards prop last week, I’m not entirely sure I’m ready to get back on that wagon again, especially at a much higher number this week.
I do feel much more comfortable, however, laying the juice on Allen’s passing touchdowns prop.
Allen has thrown for two-plus touchdowns in all three of his career meetings against the Chiefs, including a three-touchdown performance in Buffalo’s 38-20 victory over Kansas City during the regular season.
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This game also has the highest total of the four Divisional Round matchups — by nearly a touchdown, no less — so this is expected to be a high-scoring showdown between Allen and Patrick Mahomes.
Sure, Devin Singletary scored twice on the ground for Buffalo last week, but there’s no denying that the Bills are still a pass-first offense. The Chiefs like to bring pressure and play man-to-man coverage, which should give Allen some exploitable one-on-one matchups down the field with Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis.
If he plays like he did last week, Allen could torch this secondary much like Joe Burrow did to the tune of 446 yards and four touchdowns in Week 17.
Even if the Chiefs limit him some, I still have trust in Allen to throw at least two touchdown passes, something that he’s managed in 14 of 18 games this season.
Check out more of our Bills vs Chiefs Predictions
OVER 50.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM
Wager: 2.5 Units
This number is up about five yards from last week’s line, but I still don’t think it’s high enough.
Allen ran for 50+ yards seven times during the regular season and scampered for 66 yards on just six attempts against New England last weekend.
We know that Allen has a history of using his legs even more in the postseason, running for totals of 92, 88, 66, and 54 yards in four of his five career postseason starts.
- Read more of our NFL Divisional Round Player Prop Bets
Allen ran 11 times for 59 yards in Buffalo’s victory over the Chiefs in Week 5 and only needed seven attempts to gain 88 yards in last year’s AFC Championship Game.
When the stakes are higher, the Bills trust Allen to call his own number. He’ll have some designed runs and should have plenty of opportunities to scramble against a Kansas City defense that plays a lot of man-to-man coverage.
I’d feel comfortable playing this up to 60 for our NFL bet of the day.