With Wild Card weekend over, it’s now time for the NFL Divisional Round, which promises to have better matchups and hopefully closer games. One of the most anticipated matchups will be the Buffalo Bills traveling to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs.
The Bills took out 20 years of frustration on the Patriots this past weekend in a 47-17 beatdown, with Josh Allen totaling 308 yards and five touchdowns while also only missing five throws.
The Chiefs started slowly against the Steelers on Sunday but eventually found their footing and were up 35-7 at one point. They ended up winning 42-21 as the Steelers got a couple of garbage-time touchdowns, but this was basically over at halftime.
These two teams played each other in last year’s AFC Championship Game, and Patrick Mahomes got the better of Allen in that game. Will history repeat itself?
Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Same Game Parlay (+875)
- Chiefs -1.5 (-110)
- Over 54.5 Total Points (-110)
- Bills Over 18.5 Total Points (-110)
- Dawson Knox Anytime TD Scorer (+140)
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Over on BetMGM, they have a one-game parlay where you can piece together various events into one bet. Keep reading below to get my favorite bet picks for a one-game parlay ahead of Sunday’s showdown between the Bills and Chiefs.
Please note that all NFL gameday odds and lines are current as of 12:30 PM EST on Wednesday, January 19.
Best Bet: Chiefs -1.5 (-110) at BetMGM
This is almost a Pick ‘Em, but I like the Chiefs to return to the AFC Championship with how they’re playing.
I know the Bills are also playing their best football right now (and have already beat the Chiefs this season), but I don’t think they’ll be able to go into Arrowhead and win again. Mahomes is on a different level right now and has 17 touchdowns to just two interceptions in his last six games.
Now, can the Chiefs get upset here? Absolutely.
The Bills defense has been rock-solid the last few weeks, especially their secondary with Micah Hyde. He’s established himself as one of the best safeties in the league and had one heck of an interception off of Mac Jones last week. He has 74 total tackles and five interceptions coming into this contest.
Kansas City’s defense has also been completely different since it got Melvin Ingram from Pittsburgh. The unit is getting to the quarterback more and also forcing turnovers, which didn’t happen the first seven weeks of the season.
With that said, the Chiefs are playing just a little bit better on both sides of the ball and I like them to win by at least two points here.
Best Bet: Over 54.5 Total Points (-110) at BetMGM
Offensively, both the Chiefs and Bills have been on a roll lately. Kansas City has scored 28+ in its last six contests, and 30+ in five of them. For Buffalo, it’s scored 27+ in its last six games.
I know Buffalo’s defense has been stout this season, but I don’t see Kansas City having an issue scoring at least 28+ in this one. As I said above, Mahomes has turned into a different quarterback in the last six weeks and cut down on the mistakes.
Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are hard to stop when both are on the field and the Steelers found that out on Sunday.
Sure, the Chiefs may not have Clyde Edwards-Helaire for the running game, but they also didn’t have him against the Steelers and they still ran the ball very effectively with Jerick McKinnon.
For the Bills, they also have a lot of explosive talent and it starts with Stefon Diggs. Games like these are why the Bills paid a hefty price to get him. He only had 60 yards on three receptions last week, but I would expect him to have a much higher impact this week.
Dawson Knox is also very underrated as a pass-catching tight end and finished with 89 yards and two touchdowns on five receptions against New England. To me, he’s the x-factor in this matchup. If Allen can consistently find him, the Bills will have a great shot at the upset.
I’m more than confident this Over should hit for our NFL bet of the day, especially with how both offenses have been humming.
Check out more of our Bills vs Chiefs Predictions
Best Bet: Bills Over 18.5 Points (-110) at BetMGM
I think the Bills will lose, but this is still a slam dunk bet with how great their offense is. They will be able to score well over 18 points in this matchup, even if they have to play on the road.
Throughout the regular season, Buffalo notched at least 19 points in 13 of their 17 games, which is a tad over 76% of the time.
The Bills have scored at least 19 points in eight of their last 10 games and with how explosive their offense is this season, I like this bet as an easy one to add to the parlay.
Best Bet: Dawson Knox Anytime TD Scorer at BetMGM
While the Chiefs’ defense has improved as the season has gone along, I still like Knox to burn that unit for at least one score.
When these two teams played back in October, Knox only had three catches, but he also had a touchdown and 117 yards off those catches.
Knox also has three touchdowns in his last four games and again creates a massive mismatch for the Chiefs’ defense. He can run any route in the book, plus make all of the contested catches.
Knox was second on the team in touchdowns this season with nine and was also fourth on the team in receiving yards with 587. Look for him to get at least one in this matchup as the Bills look to get one step closer to the Super Bowl.