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MLB Season Predictions 2024

Last Updated: Mar 30, 2023

Five of The Game Day’s MLB writers were tasked with making 2023 baseball season predictions for the World Series winner, pennant winners, divisions, and player award winners.

Read their 2023 MLB season predictions for which team will lift the WS trophy; which squads will win their MLB division; and which players will take home the hardware in the AL and NL for MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year.

World Series Pick 2024

AL PennantNL PennantWorld Series
Frank AmmiranteBlue JaysMetsBlue Jays
Scott EngelAstrosMetsMets
Pat PickensYankeesMetsYankees
Michael WaterlooMarinersPadresMariners
Matt WilliamsBlue JaysMetsMets

Toronto Blue Jays defeat New York Mets

The Blue Jays already had a strong roster, featuring young studs like Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Bo Bichette along with a deep rotation anchored by Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah. Their offseason moves make them equipped for a World Series run.

The team added more balance to a righty-heavy lineup by bringing in Daulton Varsho, Kevin Kiermaier, and Brandon Belt. They also upgraded the starting rotation by signing Chris Bassitt and bolstered the bullpen with Erik Swanson.

With continued growth from their young players along with more consistency from their pitch staff (especially the bullpen), look out for this team.

Frank Ammirante

New York Mets defeat Houston Astros

I was strongly considering San Diego, but ultimately, the Mets’ front-line pitching will be stellar if their two aces are healthy, and there is terrific starting depth along with a better bullpen. We should see more clutch hitting and finishing off key wins in a second year under Buck Showalter, and there is impact talent ready to make a splash among the young hitters.

— Scott Engel

New York Yankees defeat New York Mets

The last time the Yankees flexed their financial muscle as they did in 2023, they ended up with a World Series in 2009. New York is loaded, especially in its starting pitching, where it will boast a staff where three starters (Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodon) finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting in 2022.

The offense, which was dormant in the playoffs, may be a concern, especially given the uncertainty in left field. But New York’s kids are a year older, and so are the Astros who also lost Cy Young winner Justin Verlander. Plus, the Yankees pitching and bullpen matches up with any from the NL in a potential World Series.

— Pat Pickens

Check out our full MLB pennant previews:

AL & NL Divison Picks

AL EastAL CentralAL WestNL EastNL CentralNL West
Frank AmmiranteBlue JaysWhite SoxAstrosMetsCardinalsDodgers
Scott EngelBlue JaysGuardiansAstrosMetsCardinalsDodgers
Pat PickensYankeesWhite SoxAstrosMetsCardinalsDodgers
Michael WaterlooBlue JaysTwinsMarinersBravesCardinalsPadres
Matt WilliamsBlue JaysWhite SoxAstrosMetsCardinalsPadres

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AL & NL Award Picks

AL MVPNL MVPAL Cy YoungNL Cy YoungAL ROYNL ROY
Frank AmmiranteShohei OhtaniPete AlonsoKevin GausmanSpencer StriderOswald PerazaJordan Walker
Scott EngelVladimir Guerrero Jr.Freddie FreemanCarlos RodonSpencer StriderTriston CasasMiguel Vargas
Pat PickensVladimir Guerrero Jr.Juan SotoAlek ManoahMax ScherzerJosh JungJordan Walker
Michael WaterlooVladimir Guerrero Jr.Ronald Acuna Jr.Kevin GausmanAlex CobbOscar ColasJordan Walker
Matt WilliamsShohei OhtaniJuan SotoKevin GausmanCorbin BurnesMasataka YoshidaCorbin Carroll

Vladimir Guererro Jr: AL MVP

2021 was the season of PLAKATA in the AL MVP race with Shohei Ohtani. Last year, Aaron Judge and Ohtani did their thing, while Guerrero took a slight step back. But if you didn’t hear by now, the fences are being moved in at Rogers Centre, which is a big boost for Guerrero.

While last year wasn’t the movie that he predicted for the Blue Jays, I expect them to win the division and compete for the AL Pennant. A 40-homer, 200 run+RBIs and a .300 average should get him the award.

— Michael Waterloo

Pete Alonso: NL MVP

Alonso slashed .271/.352/.518 with 40 home runs in 685 plate appearances last season. His 143 wRC+ was tied for 12th in MLB and he was worth four wins above replacement (WAR). This is a slugger in the thick of his prime who has improved every year.

Throughout Alonso’s MLB career, we’ve seen his strikeout rate decrease, going from 26.4% as a rookie to only 18.7% last season. His ability to generate contact (career-high 78.6% rate in 2022), along with his elite power, makes him extremely valuable.

There’s a legitimate chance that Alonso has another level to his game, given the improvements we’ve seen throughout his career.

— Frank Ammirante

Freddie Freeman: NL MVP

Look for his homers to rise again this season while Freeman remains one of the toughest outs in the game. The 12 percent HR/FB rate was his lowest in nine seasons.

Freeman led MLB in hits last season and tied for the NL lead in runs scored and he will be even better in his second year with the Dodgers. He is a leader and proven winner who will function as the axis of a contender after some key losses in the offseason.

— Scott Engel

Ronald Acuña Jr: NL MVP

What have you done for me lately, right? Remember, Acuña returned early from an ACL injury, and despite that, he still stole 29 bases and 17 home runs. Now that he’s fully recovered, a 35/35 season is in the cards for him with his played-up hit tool and stout lineup around him.

Acuña’s lowest odds are +1000 at books right now, and I expect that to go up to +800 or so (aligned with Mookie Betts) as Spring Training starts.

— Michael Waterloo


Read our full 2023 MVP predictions


Kevin Gausman: AL Cy Young

Gausman is the ace of a Blue Jays team with World Series aspirations, giving him chances for wins. We saw him thrive in his first year in Toronto, posting a 24.4 strikeout-to-walk percentage (5th) and 15.5% swinging-strike rate (T-1st).

While Gausman does not have the elite fastball like other top pitchers, he does have a splitter that can help him rack up strikeouts when he’s able to command the pitch.

— Frank Ammirante

Alek Manoah: AL Cy Young

Manoah proved his dominant rookie season was no fluke by posting better numbers (16 wins, 2.24 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) and finishing third in Cy Young voting in 2022.

The Blue Jays will likely need Manoah to be an ace again to get back to the postseason for the second straight year. Verlander’s departure to the NL, plus a potential Shohei Ohtani trade, open the door for an ace on a likely playoff team, like Manoah, to swoop in and win the award.

I think he’ll do it.

— Pat Pickens

Carlos Rodon: AL CY Young

Rodon will be in a big spotlight this season and he is ready for it. If he can avoid any major injuries, Rodon will challenge teammate Gerrit Cole to be the best pitcher in the AL. He had a career-best 237 Ks last year, which ranked third in MLB.

The southpaw also had a 2.25 FIP. Not every player has the mental makeup to handle New York, but Rodon is a fierce competitor who will thrive with the Yankees.

- - Scott Engel

Max Scherzer: NL Cy Young

Scherzer will be 39 on July 27, which would make him the third-oldest Cy Young winner in NL history. But he clearly showed no ill-effects of pitching in New York, proven by his 11-5, 2.29 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 5.9 WAR in 2022.

Scherzer didn’t allow more than four runs in any start in 2022 yet had nine outings where he lost or got a no-decision despite surrendering two runs or fewer. If those were all wins, he’d have won 20 and been in the mix for the Cy Young.

That’s what should happen in 2023, as long as Scherzer stays healthy.

— Pat Pickens

Spencer Strider: NL Cy Young

Strider burst onto the scene as a rookie, putting up an impressive 38.3% strikeout rate along with a 2.41 SIERA, which ranked 1st among all starting pitchers with at least 100 innings.

He was only limited to 131.2 innings as a rookie since it took time for him to join the Braves rotation. Now established as the ace of this staff, we could see him approach 160 innings this season.

If Strider is able to do that while approaching last year’s production, we could be looking at over 220 strikeouts with an elite ERA and WHIP. Playing for a World Series contender like the Braves can provide opportunities for wins, which bodes well for this award.

— Frank Ammirante

Alex Cobb: NL Cy Young

There are only two books that list Cobb as an option for NL Cy Young - FanDuel (+15000) and BetMGM (+12500). He’s a long shot, sure, but his surface-level numbers weren’t indicative of just how good he was last year.

Cobb’s 2.80 FIP was 8th among pitchers with 140 innings thrown, ahead of names Sandy Alcántara, Zack Wheeler, Shane Bieber, and Brandon Woodruff. Cobb was also top 20 in CSW%, and he had the fifth-highest BABIP in baseball.

A Robbie Ray 2021-type season wouldn’t surprise me at all from Cobb.

— Michael Waterloo


See our full 2023 Cy Young predictions


Oswald Peraza: AL Rookie of the Year

Peraza is the favorite to win the starting shortstop job for the Yankees. This is a player who slashed .259/.329/.448 with 19 homers and 33 stolen bases at Triple-A last season.

He’s an MLB-ready prospect with a plus glove, which means that his defense will keep him in the lineup throughout the year.

We saw him show strong plate discipline numbers in his brief stint last year, putting up a 10.5% walk rate and 15.8% strikeout rate in 57 plate appearances.

Playing in a stacked lineup should give him opportunities to rack up counting stats. Each of these factors makes him a strong candidate for this award.

— Frank Ammirante

Josh Jung: AL Rookie of the Year

The Rangers will be a team to keep an eye on, and although I personally don’t think they’ll compete for a playoff spot or the division crown, the spotlight shining on them will only help Jung.

Jung gained valuable experience in his 26-game cup of coffee with the Rangers in 2022. He’s a great hitter and has mashed at every level, proven by his 30 homers, .311 average, and .919 OPS in the minor leagues,

Plus, Jung should be Texas’ everyday third baseman, which gives his AL ROY candidacy a level of certainty that others don’t have at this point.

— Pat Pickens

Triston Casas: AL Rookie of the Year

Casas has a swing made for Fenway Park and good power potential. He knows how to draw a walk and get on base frequently. The path has been cleared for him to start at first base in Boston. Casas had a .858 OPS and .374 OBP in four minor league seasons and he will be more ready for the Majors after a 27-game taste last season.

— Scott Engel


Explore our full 2023 Rookie of the Year predictions

Author

Matt Williams

Matt Williams is the Lead MLB Editor for The Game Day, formerly of The Athletic and NBC Sports. Matt is the former host of the Turn Two Podcast and champion of both Tout Wars and the Kings Classic fantasy expert leagues. He has been nominated for an FSWA award and is known for his analytical breakdown threads on Twitter.

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