NFL Week 16 Best Bets | Predictions & Picks for NFL Week 16

We are down to the final three weeks of the 2021 season, and Week 16 has several high-quality games with playoff implications. It’s also a great schedule as there are games on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

To get you prepared for the week ahead, here are our best bets and picks for Week 16 of the NFL season. Please note that all NFL gameday odds and lines are current as of 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday, December 21.

Marcus Mosher’s Best Bets NFL Betting Record: 52-36

Cleveland Browns vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction

It’s been quite a week for the Cleveland Browns. They were scheduled to play the Las Vegas Raiders on Saturday, but that game got moved to Monday afternoon. Now, they’ll travel to Green Bay on a short week to take on the Packers on Christmas Day.

It remains to be seen who will be available for the Browns after putting over 20 players on the COVID-19 list in the last week. Still, it’s hard to see the Packers slipping up in this game, especially with the No. 1 seed in the NFC in their control.

Look for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to have a huge game in primetime and to beat the Browns with ease.

Browns vs. Packers Prediction: Packers 34, Browns 20

Browns vs. Packers Best Bet: Packers -7.5 (-104) on TwinSpires

Wager: 1 Unit

Aaron Rodgers might be the MVP of the league so far this season, and with just three games left to go, it’s officially his award to lose. Look for him to put on a show in Week 16 with a huge national audience.

Cleveland’s secondary has been torched this season, and this feels like a game in which Rodgers wraps up the award. The Packers should be able to win this game by double-digits and, thus, covering the 7.5 point spread.

spread

-104

Packers Cover -7.5 Spread v Browns

CLE @ GB | 12/25, 4:30 PM ET

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Browns vs. Packers Best Bet: Over 45.5 (+102) on TwinSpires

Wager: 0.5 Unit

The Packers have scored at least 31 points in four-straight games and should have no problem doing it again. The bigger question is, can the Browns score enough for the over to hit?

The answer is probably yes, as they should still be able to run the ball. But don’t expect Cleveland to win a ton through the air. The over is the smart bet here, but don’t wager too many units on this one.

over-under

+102

Browns @ Packers OVER 45.5 Points

CLE @ GB | 12/25, 4:30 PM ET

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Arizona Cardinals Prediction

The Cardinals were in a tough spot last week. Coming off a divisional loss on a short week, they laid an egg against the Lions in Detriot. But with the NFC West division on the line, don’t expect that to happen again.

The Colts beat the New England Patriots in Week 15, but the play of Carson Wentz was not encouraging. Can he get back on track on Christmas against the Cardinals and their pass rush? That seems unlikely.

Look for the Cardinals to win a close game at home in Week 16.

Colts vs. Cardinals Prediction: Cardinals 24, Colts 21

Colts vs. Cardinals Best Bet: Cardinals -1.5 (+102) on TwinSpires

Wager: 1 Unit

The Cardinals have the better quarterback in this matchup and are at home. They are still a really good team despite back-to-back losses. The fact that they are less than a field goal favorite in this game makes them an even better bet.

Look for Kyler Murray and the rest of the offense to play a better game in Week 16. It’s still hard to trust Wentz on the road against a big-time opponent.

spread

+102

Cardinals Cover -1.5 Spread v Colts

IND @ ARI | 12/25, 8:15 PM ET

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Colts vs. Cardinals Best Bet: Under 49 (-106) on TwinSpires

Wager: 1 Unit

Both teams will want to run the ball in this one, especially the Colts. Jonathan Taylor has a combined 109 carries over the last four games, and it stands to reason that he will see even more work against the Cardinals in Week 16.

Expect this to be a slow-paced game with both teams trying to establish the run.

over-under

-106

Colts @ Cardinals UNDER 49 Points

IND @ ARI | 12/25, 8:15 PM ET

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction

One of the week’s biggest games will feature the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Kansas City Chiefs. Pittsburgh desperately needs a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. With a win, they could be just a half-game back of the division with games still left against the Browns and Baltimore Ravens.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs currently hold the No. 1 seed in the AFC and would love nothing more than to lock up a first-round bye. But with games still left against the Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, and Denver Broncos, they can ill-afford to slip up.

This game will be one of the most-watched games of the year, and you can bet that it’s going to be close going into the fourth quarter. Take the Chiefs to win at home, especially since they are coming off 10-days rest. But don’t be surprised when the Steelers make this a game late.

Steelers vs. Chiefs Prediction: Chiefs 23, Steelers 20

Steelers vs. Chiefs Best Bet: Steelers +10.5 (-118) on TwinSpires

Wager: 1 Unit

It’s worth mentioning that Mike Tomlin usually has his team play well against conference opponents. In fact, the Steelers 5-1 ATS in their last six games against AFC opponents. They’ve also had a ton of success against the Chiefs in the past, winning six of their last eight games.

It would be a surprise if the Steelers won this game. However, it won’t be a surprise at all if it comes down to the final possession. Take the Steelers +10.5, as that’s just far too many points in this AFC matchup.

spread

-118

Steelers Cover +10.5 Spread v Chiefs

PIT @ KC | 12/26, 4:25 PM ET

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Steelers vs. Chiefs Best Bet: Under 46.5 points (-110) on TwinSpires

Wager: 1 Unit

Everyone knows how well Kansas City’s defense has played over the last two months. Even against the Chargers, they got multiple steps in the red zone against one of the most dangerous offenses in the league.

However, Pittsburgh’s defense has stepped up recently as they forced four turnovers against the Titans in Week 15. Don’t be surprised if this is a low-scoring game with both teams trying to keep it close until the end. Look for a 23-20 type of game in Kansas City as both teams lean on their defense to win this game.

over-under

-110

Steelers @ Chiefs UNDER 46.5 Points

PIT @ KC | 12/26, 4:25 PM ET

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Thanks for reading our NFL Week 16 Best Bets! For more NFL betting tips, check out our look at our NFL Week 16 Parlay Picks.

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NFL Betting News

  • Early money slightly leaning towards the over in the 49ers-Rams matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting good two-way action on the over/under for the NFC Championship Game matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 46 points has attracted 55% of the bets and 60% of the money thus far. Much moreso than the AFC Championship Game, the betting splits on the point spread and total in this game are much more evenly split, so the sportsbook does not have too much liability on either at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Los Angeles's -170 moneyline odds have attracted 60% of the bets and 70% of the money.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early bettors give slight lean to the Rams over the 49ers

    Based on the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook, the favored Los Angeles Rams are getting slightly more betting attention in their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Los Angeles's -3.5 point spread has received 65% of the bets and 61% of the handle thus far. Bettors are clearly torn in this matchup considering the Rams have arguably been playing better football through the first two playoff games, while the 49ers have won six consecutive games against the Rams, including a thrilling Week 18 overtime victory in Los Angeles.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early money more than 4/1 on the over in the Bengals-Chiefs matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's over/under in the matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 54.5 points has attracted 75% of the bets and 85% of the money thus far. At this point, the sportsbook has big liability to the Chiefs point spread and the over in this matchup, as their most ideal scenario would be a Bengals cover in a low-scoring game at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Kansas City's -335 moneyline odds have attracted 58% of the bets and 61% of the money.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • Early money 3/1 on the Chiefs over the Bengals

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, as the majority of the action is backing the favored Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Kansas City's -7 point spread has received 61% of the bets and 76% of the handle thus far. Cincinnati is shaping up to be the biggest need of any side or any total this weekend, as the public seems to be enamored with the Chiefs after their thrilling Divisional Round win over Buffalo.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • 49ers-Rams over/under reaches lowest number of the week

    After another line movement, the over/under for the NFC Championship matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams has reached its lowest total of the week.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the 49ers-Rams over/under on Sunday night was posted at 47.5 points. It was quickly bet down to 46.5 in less than 24 hours. However, it has once again moved toward the under, and now currently sits at 46 points. Given that there has not yet been buyback on the over, it is extremely unlikely we see the total get back to anywhere close to the 47.5 points it opened at.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page