What Are Prediction Markets and How Do Apps Like Polymarket Work?
Before I share my favorite prediction market apps, let’s make sure we’re all on the same page. Do you really understand how these things work? Prediction markets are simple yes/no questions on which people buy and sell contracts. The mechanics are much the same as those of a stock exchange.
To explain, let’s take a simple example from Robinhood, one of several Polymarket-like apps available in the USA. At the time of writing, Robinhood offers the following market: How many launches will SpaceX have in June 2026?
The following options are available:
| Prediction Answer | Yes Price | No Price |
|---|---|---|
| Above 12 | $0.79 | $0.21 |
| Above 13 | $0.46 | $0.54 |
| Above 14 | $0.11 | $0.89 |
As you can see, each option poses a binary yes/no choice. If you think Space X will launch more than 12 times in June, you can purchase as many “Yes” contracts as you like for $0.79 each. If you think the real number will be fewer than 12, you can buy “No” contracts instead, which currently cost $0.21 each.
Contract Settlement
At the end of June, we’ll know exactly how many launches there were, so Robinhood will settle this market based on the actual result. Let’s pretend the real answer was 15, so anyone who bought “Yes” contracts for the “Above 12” prediction was correct. What happens next?
All “Yes” contracts are settled as winners, so they pay exactly $1 to anyone holding a contract. On the other hand, “No” contracts are losers, so they pay nothing at all.
If you bought 25 “Yes” contracts, for instance, at $0.79 each, that’s a $19.75 purchase. These apps usually charge trading fees, but let’s ignore that for now to keep the math simple.
Since your 25 “Yes” contracts won, each one pays $1 – that means a $25 return. Since you already spent $19.75 to purchase contracts, you made an overall profit of $5.25 from this position – before fees, of course.
Price Changes and Trading
It’s also possible to trade these yes/no event contracts. Just like stocks or cryptocurrency, the prices change in response to supply and demand, as well as real-world events.
To continue the above example, imagine that Elon Musk came out and said SpaceX would temporarily suspend launches for some reason. The price of “Yes” on “Above 12” would undoubtedly collapse, as everyone rushed to buy “No” contracts in response.
You don’t have to sit and wait for the event outcome – as prices fluctuate, this provides trading opportunities.
Why Do People Like Prediction Markets So Much?
Prediction markets continue to grow in popularity for a number of reasons. The most obvious is that people always like to be proven right about their opinions – even more so if they can make a little money from it.
In states where sports betting is illegal, apps like Robinhood can provide an interesting alternative. And if you want to try trading stocks and shares, but find it all too intimidating, prediction markets offer a much simpler, more user-friendly alternative.
Prediction Markets Pros and Cons
Pros
- Many options including film, sports and politics
- Much less intimidating than stock exchanges
- Legal and accessible in most US states
Cons
- Apps charge trading and commission fees
3 Best Apps Like Polymarket in the US
Okay, it’s time to take a closer look at my three favorite Polymarket alternatives.
Crypto.com - Great for Crypto Predictions
The first one is smaller than the other apps I’ve highlighted – you’ll find just six different categories. One of the most interesting – as you might expect, given the company’s background – is “Crypto”. This allows you to make predictions on as many as 17 cryptocurrencies and their trading prices and various times of day.
The crypto category allows for multiple fast-paced trades per day, and offers something a little different to the prediction platforms that focus on sport, politics and culture. Mind you, Crypto.com still offers many of those things. There’s no sport yet, but politics and culture are joined by tech, climate and economics categories.
Crypto.com is a highly reputable brand that’s regulated by the CFTC. That means your funds will always be safe and secure. It’s also possible to deposit and withdraw using a number of traditional payment methods, including Visa, Mastercard, Apple Pay, Venmo and bank transfers.
Kalshi - various prediction market categories to choose from
With 12 categories to choose from, like politics, culture and sports, Kalshi is one of the oldest prediction market apps in the US. Although it didn’t actually launch until July 2021, not long after Polymarket, it was actually the first event‑contracts exchange to gain federal approval.
Kalshi takes an interesting approach to trading fees, with variable amounts per category, and no charges for losing trades. It’s not the cheapest out there, but it’s not expensive either – its fees are somewhere in the middle of the pack, and generally quite fair.
It also offers one of the best selections of payment methods, with a number of crypto and fiat currency options to choose from. You can deposit with Cash App, Venmo and PayPal, as well as bank transfers, Apple Pay and debit cards.
Robinhood - Best User Interface
Another predictions app with a reasonable pricing structure, Robinhood offers 13 different categories, including sports entertainment and politics. Many of these are financial, though, with separate categories for commodities, metals, crypto and financial markets, plus economic issues like gas prices.
I like the user interface of Robinhood better than most. The dark background is easier on the eye, and I enjoy seeing the price history plotted on a chart, making it easier to spot trends. Plus it’s a convenient all-round choice, as you can also invest in stocks, metals and cryptocurrencies from the same application and user account.
There aren’t quite as many markets on Robinhood as apps like Polymarket and Kalshi, but you’ll still find hundreds at any given time. I only expect this number to increase as the app’s popularity continues to grow.
Other Polymarket Alternatives
Alongside these three apps, there are dozens more Polymarket alternatives. They didn’t make the cut for various reasons, but mostly a lack of market variety. Although these apps are great if you’re interested in one specific topic, they don’t have the same broad appeal as Kalshi, Crypto.com and Robinhood.
For example, there are many apps like PrizePicks for predictions on sports which don’t include politics, entertainment and science events. Similarly, some apps only focus on politics, failing to cover other interesting areas.
There are even social prediction apps now, which are great for community debate and paper trading, but don’t allow you to purchase contracts with real money.
How I Rate Prediction Market Apps
Having seen my recommended prediction market apps, you’re probably wondering how I came to this conclusion. Well, there’s a lot to think about, but the following topics carry the most weight when I consider which apps are best.
Security, Trust and Reputation
Whenever real money is on the line, it’s vital to ensure our chosen app is secure. I expect to see SSL encryption, for instance, to help keep my financial details and sensitive personal data nice and safe.
There are lots of successful apps like Polymarket available in the US, so it’s no surprise to learn that similar products are popping up overseas. But if you’re based in the US, it’s important you only use those which are regulated by the CFTC. US-regulated apps offer greater legal protection and fraud controls than their offshore counterparts.
Number and Variety of Prediction Markets
Most of the prediction apps I left out off my list missed the cut due to a lack of market variety or depth. If you only want to make predictions on NBA games, for example, it’s not a bad idea to choose an app that focuses on sports. But most people are looking to trade contracts on a much wider range of markets.
I always prefer apps that cover sports, politics and entertainment as a minimum, but really, it’s just a case of “the more the merrier”. The best options let you trade contracts on everything from this week’s weather to the existence of aliens.
Banking Methods and Payout Times
When trading real money event contracts, you’re going to need access to secure and reliable deposit methods. And if you keep making correct predictions, you’ll want to get your hands on those profits as quickly as possible.
That’s why I always look for prediction apps with a good selection of fee-free deposit methods and super fast withdrawal options. All of those featured in this guide check these boxes.
Bonuses and Promotions
The very best apps like Polymarket reward repeat customers with bonuses. However, if the terms and conditions of those promotions are too strict, they’re often rendered worthless. I always take a good look at the fine print before recommending a prediction markets app.
This is also true for signup incentives. Sometimes the headline looks great, but if you scratch the surface, you realize that you won’t get much of a bonus at all.
Customer Support
With so many similar prediction market apps to choose from, it’s often the seemingly small things that differentiate them. Easy access to polite, friendly and helpful customer support agents is one such example.
Ideally, the app should offer round-the-clock support through email and live chat. It’s always nice to see other support channels, though, including telephone and social media options.
Legality of Prediction Apps Like Polymarket
For the time being, prediction markets are legal in all 50 states. I’ll explain why shortly, but it’s worth clarifying that some jurisdictions are challenging the law.
Illinois, for instance, tried to block prediction markets, claiming they feel too much like illegal gambling. The federal government challenged this in court, arguing that states cannot block federally regulated markets.
Nevada is another state that aggressively contests the legality of prediction markets, also citing what it feels are similarities to sports betting. For this reason, many apps don’t accept new registrations from players in the Silver State.
Summary of the Legal Situation
At the moment, the law seems clear. As long as the prediction markets app is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) then you’re legally allowed to use it. That would rule out the use of overseas companies, but not US-based apps like Kalshi or Polymarket.
Just keep in mind that things can always change in the future. Make sure you’re fully up to speed with local legislation before getting involved.
Choosing the Right Prediction App for You
Everyone expects different things from their prediction apps. Here are some key considerations when making your choice:
- Trading vs sports. Some apps lean into sports more heavily than others, with designs that look and feel more like betting products than trading apps. If you’re a serious trader, you’ll want to avoid those, favoring those with advanced trading tools instead.
- Fees and commissions. Different apps take different approaches to pricing. Some – like Kalshi – apply fees by category, while others use a flatter, more consistent structure. Always research the pricing model before joining
- State availability. Despite being technically legal in all 50 states, apps like Polymarket don’t always accept users from places like Illinois and Nevada. That’s due to ongoing legal challenges around the status of these products. The situation can change quickly, though – stay abreast of the latest news.
- Payment methods. If you’re looking to use a specific payment option, make sure the app actually has it before signing up. Some, like Polymarket, are heavily focused on cryptocurrency, while others accept deposits from convenient methods like Venmo and Cash App.
Why Is Polymarket So Popular?
Honestly, the main reason Polymarket is so popular is nothing more than first-mover advantage. Having launched in mid-2020, it’s simply the first prediction market app that most people in the US had ever heard of. So naturally, when someone decides to give predictions a try for the first time, they inevitably think of Polymarket.
In fairness, though, it’s not like Polymarket is a bad product – it does a lot of things right. Apart from the fact that it’s legal and regulated by the CFTC, it accepts both cryptocurrency payments and traditional methods like bank wires.
The variety is also very good, routinely putting up more than 1,000 markets across one a sizable selection of categories. Users can make predictions on topics as diverse as sports, technology, finance, politics, science and culture.
Markets are also highly liquid, due to the sheer number of users. You’re much less likely to see wild price fluctuations than at other, newer apps.
Reasons People Are Leaving
Despite its obvious plus points, the ever-increasing number of apps like Polymarket gives users greater choice than ever before. Some make it much easier to join, while others offer a simpler user interface.
What’s more, Polymarket is very much a crypto-centric platform, which puts off a lot of people that don’t really understand blockchain-based payments.
Wherever You Choose to Trade, Do It Responsibly
Before wrapping up my guide to the best apps like Polymarket, here’s some advice on how to trade prediction markets responsibly.
- Stick to your budget. There’s nothing more important than financial management. Never deposit more money than you can afford to lose. However much you decide to play with, don’t change your mind in the heat of the moment.
- Get to grips with liquidity. When markets don’t have a lot of liquidity, it doesn’t take much money at all to move the prices. Changes can occur extremely quickly, making it harder to trade out, while ruining your positions.
- Start out small and sensible. Until you’re more experienced, keep your contract purchases small. Even if you know what you’re doing, don’t risk much money on unfamiliar platforms until you’ve figured them out.
- Diversify where possible. You know that old expression about putting all of your eggs in one basket? Yeah, that. Don’t over-expose yourself on a single market. If it goes wrong, you’ll lose too much of your budget.
- Know the market rules. Different markets have different settlement rules. Don’t get caught out – always read the terms and conditions before purchasing event contracts.
- Avoid acting impulsively. This is easy to say and much harder to do, but it’s important to remain in control of your emotions. When prices are changing quickly, try not to panic and make rash judgements.
Not Sure Where to Start Making Predictions? Give These Polymarket Alternatives a Try
New prediction market apps like Polymarket continue to appear, making it harder than ever to know where to begin. But in Crypto.com, Kalshi and Robinhood, you’re looking at three legal operators with high quality apps, fair pricing structures, and a wide range of markets and payment options.
All three are perfect for beginners and experienced traders alike. But I really like the Crypto.com interface, and I’m sure you will too. That’s just one reason I recommend trying Crypto.com first, if you’re not sure where to begin.
Click the banner ad on this page to visit Crypto.com and register your new account today.
