How Do Apps Like Kalshi and Prediction Markets Actually Work?
First things first, you need to understand exactly what we’re talking about here. Kalshi is a prediction markets app, which poses thousands of yes/no questions. It’s up to you to figure out what the correct answer will be.
Depending on your opinion, you can purchase any number of “yes” or “no” contracts. Prices are usually shown in cents, though sometimes they’re written as percentages. Whichever format the operator chooses, it’s the same thing – prices correspond to probabilities. For example, $0.60 implies a 60% chance of the outcome actually happening.
To better illustrate the mechanics, here’s a real market taken from the Kalshi homepage at the time of writing. It concerns Game 5 of the 2026 NBA Playoffs:
| Game 5 Winner | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 36% ($0.36) | 65% ($0.65) |
| San Antonio Spurs | 65% ($0.65) | 36% ($0.36) |
Note that the percentages add up to 101%, instead of 100%, due to the bid/ask spread. This is the gap between the highest price someone will pay and the lowest at which someone will sell.
Buying and Selling Contracts
In the above example, if you believe the Knicks will win the game, you can purchase “Yes” contracts for 36 cents each. You can obviously buy more than one contract at a time – 100 contracts, for instance, would cost $36.
Having made your purchase, you can either wait for the actual outcome, or trade your contracts with other users in response to price fluctuations.
Imagine there’s breaking news before the game – an illness has spread through the Spurs team camp. With so many star players affected, the probability of a Knicks win increases greatly, while the Spurs odds decrease. You now have the opportunity to hedge, by covering both sides of the market and locking in a profit.
Don’t forget that apps like Kalshi charge fees whenever you buy or sell event contracts. Make sure you read and understand the costs before jumping in and trading.
Settling Contracts
When the outcome is finally known, the odds of either “Yes” or “No” will reach 100%. Those contracts are now worth a dollar each, and the platform will pay you accordingly. Similarly, losing predictions will be worth nothing.
Let’s say you bought 50 “Yes” contracts on New York winning at $0.36 each. That’s a total of $18. If the Knicks do win the game, you’ll receive $50 from those winning contracts. Overall, you’d make a $32 profit before fees: $50 - $18 = $32
Top 3 Prediction Apps Like Kalshi
Now that we understand more about how prediction markets actually work, it’s time for me to reveal my three favorite alternatives to Kalshi.
Polymarket
You’ve probably already heard about Polymarket, because it’s the oldest prediction markets app in the United States. It launched in the middle of 2020, so it’s had plenty of time to develop its reputation as a secure and reliable platform. But the main reason I rate Polymarket so highly is the variety of markets.
Log in on any given day and you’re sure to find thousands of propositions, across a dozen or more categories. That’s right – unlike some apps, it doesn’t just focus on one area. You can make predictions on everything from sports, music and science, to extreme weather events and the existence of space aliens.
As a well-established operator, liquidity is never a problem at Polymarket. And it also offers one of the best selections of payment options – you can use cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Tether and Ethereum, as well as traditional banking methods.
Robinhood
With 13 different categories of prediction market, including sports, politics and entertainment, Robinhood’s coverage is pretty diverse. However, if you enjoy financial markets, there’s no better choice right now – you can trade event contracts on metals, cryptocurrencies and even the price of gas.
This is subjective, but I prefer the user interface over many other apps like Kalshi. The black background puts less strain on the eyes and is just nicer to look at, while the graphs help you quickly identify trends. You don’t need to download the app, either – register, log in and trade from a mobile or desktop browser, if you wish.
Another benefit of Robinhood is the simple and fair pricing structure – you just pay a flat fee of $0.01 per trade. That price is cut in half if you subscribe to Robinhood Gold.
OG (Crypto.com)
Crypto.com is a CTFC-regulated financial and cryptocurrency exchange, and OG is the name of its prediction markets app. Although it only launched in February 2026, Crypto.com is a trusted platform that’s been around for much longer.
OG is a little smaller than prediction apps like Polymarket and Kalshi, with nine different categories to choose from. However, it’s still pretty new, so I expect this to grow in future. In the meantime, it’s the one of the few apps I’ve seen with a “Live” feature, allowing users to make sports predictions while games are ongoing.
This puts a new and exciting spin on things, as you need to think quickly and react to in-game situations. It’s a fascinating concept and a welcome addition to the prediction market space.
Near Misses
There are many other apps like Kalshi, aside from the three I just highlighted. Some are very good, but didn’t quite make the cut – usually because they lack the variety and depth of Polymarket, Robinhood and OG.
You’ll find a number of apps like PrizePicks for predictions on sports, for instance. But as good as that platform is for NBA, NFL and NHLmarkets, it doesn’t offer popular prediction categories like entertainment, politics and weather events.
Some apps specialize in other specific areas, so they’re useless if you want to make predictions on a broader range of topics. Then you have social apps like Manifold. These are great fun, and help you get to grips with the concept or prediction markets without the need to risk money. But you’re not really trading, as there’s only virtual currencies at stake.
The following Kalshi-like apps didn’t make my top three this time, but that could easily change with a few improvements.
| Predictions App | Description |
|---|---|
| Manifold | Social prediction markets app with virtual currencies and no real money trading. |
| DraftKings Predictions | Deep sports prediction coverage but limited broader appeal. |
| Fanatics Markets | Similar to DraftKings – not enough markets outside of sports. |
| PrizePicks | Still too focused on daily fantasy sports – needs more advanced trading features. |
| PredictIt | Comprehensive political coverage, particularly elections. Not enough casual appeal. |
What I Look for in a Good Prediction Markets Platform
Wondering how I picked my top three alternatives to Kalshi? There’s plenty of factors to consider, but I believe the following five categories are the most crucial. All of my recommended platforms score highly in these areas.
Variety and Depth of Coverage
The more prediction markets there are to choose from, the better the chance of a user finding what they need. That’s why the best apps like Kalshi feature a wide variety of topics, instead of focusing on one specific area.
Breadth of coverage is important, but so is depth. It’s no good claiming to offer political predictions, when in reality there are just two or three options within that category. As a general rule of thumb, the more markets you can count, the better the app.
Security Features and Trust
Prediction markets involve the exchange of real money, so it’s vital that the platforms are trustworthy. Since they’ll be holding your cash, they must be properly regulated by the CFTC, so you have somewhere to turn in the event of an issue.
What’s more, your chosen trading app or website should be protected by the latest technology, including SSL encryption, multi-factor authentication and other security features. The last thing you need is someone breaking into your account and stealing your cash.
Settlement and Withdrawal Speeds
When you’ve made the correct prediction, you don’t want to wait for days to receive your money. The best prediction apps settle contracts in a timely manner, paying the holders quickly, without imposing unnecessary waiting periods. -
They also feature a large choice of secure, reliable and convenient payment methods, both for deposits and withdrawals. Many now accept cryptocurrencies – a big deal for me, personally – alongside traditional options like debit cards, bank wires and PayPal.
Customer Support Availability
In the event of a technical hitch, or even if you just have a simple question, it’s reassuring to know there’s a helpful support team on hand to assist. And I mean humans, too – not frustrating AI chatbots that result in a sub-par experience.
Not only should the agents be knowledgeable, friendly and polite, but accessibility is just as important. The best apps offer 24/7 support via multiple channels, including live chat and email.
Bonuses and Promotions
There are so many similar prediction market apps available now, all of which offer their own great features, it can be hard to know where to begin. That’s where a generous welcome bonus can make a big difference. If I can’t pick between two near-identical platforms, I’ll side with the one that presents me with a better signup offer.
Of course, once I’ve opened my account, I expect the promotions to keep coming. Loyalty rewards and discounted trading fees will ensure that users stick around beyond the initial bonus.
What’s the Appeal of Prediction Apps Like Kalshi?
More and more people are taking an interest in prediction markets, and it’s easy to see why. After all, people just love to talk about their opinions – and who doesn’t enjoy being right about things? Even better if you’re able to turn those thoughts into financial profits through trading.
Apps like Robinhood and Kalshi are also growing in popularity due to their simplicity. Anyone wishing to get into trading the financial markets might be put off by the apparent complexity of traditional platforms. But that’s much less of an issue with prediction markets, which present a far more straightforward, easy-to-use alternative.
Pros and Cons of Prediction Apps Like Kalshi
Pros
- Regulated by the CFTC and available in most states
- Make predictions on sport, music, politics and more
- Simpler and less intimidating than regular trading
Cons
- Trading fees and commission usually apply
More About Kalshi
Kalshi launched its predictions platform in July 2021, making it one of the oldest in the United States. This gives the app a significant advantage over more recent entrants to the market, having already established itself as a reputable and trustworthy operator.
With a dozen categories available, Kalshi offers plenty of choice when it comes to prediction events. Alongside the usual sports, politics and economic markets, there are a couple of more interesting innovations that caught my eye.
The first is “Mentions”, where the aim is to guess what might be said by politicians, sports announcers and celebrities. I also really like the “Live” feature, which offers the opportunity to make predictions on a variety of in-play sports.
Why Some People Are Ditching Kalshi
Although Kalshi is one of the most highly-regarded prediction apps in the country, some users are switching to newer alternatives. There are many reasons why you might want to try a different platform, including:
- Crypto withdrawals. Although Kalshi accepts deposits in popular cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH and XRP, it’s not currently possible to withdraw using any of these methods. If you’re looking for an app that’s 100% crypto-friendly, there are better platforms out there.
- Collecting bonuses. Many prediction market apps offer newcomers a generous signup incentive. It’s often worth trying a new one just to secure the welcome bonus. When you’re done with the promotion, you can choose to stay, or simply return to your original platform.
- Trading fees. I think Kalshi has one of the fairest pricing models when it comes to trading fees. However, everyone has their own take, and the structure of some prediction apps suits other users better.
- Playing the field. Sometimes you just want to see what’s out there. Even if you end up returning, it’s always good to compare the market and make sure you’re still using the right app for your own needs.
- Specific markets. Kalshi offers an extremely diverse array of prediction markets. That’s great for casual users, but if you’re seeking detailed and highly specific coverage – especially in the field of politics – other options might be better.
Where in the US Are Apps Like Kalshi Actually Available?
According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission – the federal regulator of US futures, options and swaps – prediction markets fall under its exclusive jurisdiction. That means platforms like Kalshi are available to use in all 50 US states, as long as they’re approved by the CFTC.
Legal Disputes
Some states, though, dispute this. Nevada, New York and Washington are just a few of the states who feel that prediction markets should be regulated at the state level.
As a result, the CFTC has a number of ongoing legal disputes with such states. At the time of writing, though, prediction markets are technically legal all across the United States. However, the picture is constantly developing, and things can change quickly. Make sure you’re up to speed with local laws before getting involved.
Top Tips for Trading Prediction Markets Responsibly
To finish up, here’s a quickfire guide to responsible trading practices on prediction markets:
- Don’t overspend. Sensible financial management is the key to success. Don’t deposit more than you’re comfortable losing. Start small and build up as you gain experience using these apps.
- Read the rules. Not all prediction markets have the same settlement rules. Make sure you read the terms before buying and selling event contracts. This will help to avoid frustration.
- Understand liquidity. If there’s not much money in the market, prices can change wildly, and in a short space of time. Don’t get caught out – keep your exposure small in illiquid markets.
- Spread the risk. Speaking of exposure, it’s never a good idea to spend all of your budget on a single contract. Diversifying your predictions spreads the risk around.
- Stay in control. This can be difficult in the heat of the moment, but it’s important not to panic and make bad decisions. Make a plan before trading and stick to it as much as possible.
Ready to Start? Try Polymarket – I Predict a $50 Bonus for You
With so many new prediction apps like Kalshi on the market, picking the right one can be hard. But if you’re not sure where to start, Polymarket is the obvious choice.
It’s true that Robinhood and OG are also excellent prediction market apps. But Polymarket is one of the best-known platforms in the US, with a greater selection of events.
Like the others, it’s also regulated by the CFTC, so there’s no need to worry whether or not your money will be looked after. And as one of the biggest operators, market liquidity is never an issue.
Join Polymarket today and get a trading bonus worth $50 after making your first deposit of at least $20. Click a banner on this page to register and get started.
