Super Bowl MVP Odds & Predictions | 2022 Super Bowl Most Valuable Player Award Pick

Frank AmmiranteFantasy Sports & Betting Writer
Posted: Feb 11, 2022Last updated: Feb 13, 2022

The NFL Playoffs are down to the Super Bowl, which means that it’s time to determine the best pick for Super Bowl MVP. In this article, we’ll take a look at the best bet and value pick for the award.

We’ll also go through optimal strategies to help you make the best pick in this betting market.

Let’s dive in to find out where you should place a wager for Super Bowl MVP.

Please note that all NFL gameday lines are provided courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. NFL Super Bowl odds are current as of noon ET on Wednesday, February 9.

Super Bowl MVP Odds 2022

Super Bowl 56 MVP lines heavily favor the quarterback position as well as Super Bowl favorites:

  • Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (+120)
  • Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+220)
  • Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams (+700)
  • Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Los Angeles Rams (+1200)
  • Odell Beckham Jr, Los Angeles Rams (+1600)
  • Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams (+1800)
  • Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (+2500)
  • Cam Akers, RB, Los Angeles Rams (+3000)
  • Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (+4000)
  • Von Miller, DE, Los Angeles Rams (+4000)
  • Van Jefferson, WR, Los Angeles Rams (+6000)
  • Jalen Ramsey, CB, Los Angeles Rams (+6000)
  • Trey Hendrickson, DE, Cincinnati Bengals (+6000)
  • Sony Michel, RB, Los Angeles Rams (+6000)
  • Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (+7500)

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Super Bowl MVP Prediction 2022

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (+120)

Matthew Stafford has played terrific football in the postseason after a slow finish down the stretch. The veteran quarterback has combined for 905 yards with six touchdowns and one interception during these playoffs.

If the Rams win the Super Bowl, it’s likely that Stafford played a clean game with no turnovers, outdueling Joe Burrow in a battle of two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

Los Angeles is -190 to defeat the Bengals and win the Super Bowl. If you take Stafford to win MVP instead, You get +210 additional value, so it’s a prudent play.

Super Bowl MVP Favorites

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+220)

Joe Burrow has proven that he’s not afraid of the bright lights throughout these playoffs. The second-year quarterback is as cool as it gets under pressure.

Burrow overcame nine sacks to upset the Titans on the road and erased a 17-point deficit to shock the Chiefs at Arrowhead. It seems that nothing fazes him.

The Bengals are +160 underdogs to win the Super Bowl. If they’re able to pull off their third upset in a row, there’s a great chance that Burrow played a terrific game to win the championship.



Super Bowl MVP Contenders & Value Bets

Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams (+700)

Cooper Kupp just finished a historic season, catching 145-of-191 targets for 1,947 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns. It was the second-most receiving yards in NFL history, only 17 yards shy of Calvin Johnson‘s record.

Since wideouts have won the award more often lately, that makes Kupp a strong value play over Stafford (+120). The Rams are -190 to win the Super Bowl, but you get +890 more in value if you take Kupp to win MVP.


Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (+1200)

The Bengals are underdogs to win the Super Bowl at +160, so why not shoot for the moon when taking one of their most explosive players for Super Bowl MVP?

Ja’Marr Chase can blow up on any given game, just like we saw in the regular season against the Chiefs: 11 receptions, 266 yards, three touchdowns, or Ravens: eight receptions, 201 yards, one touchdown.

If Cincinnati is able to win the Super Bowl, there’s a chance that it came from a huge game from their superstar rookie wideout. Chase has an extremely high ceiling, so he’s worth a look.

Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams (+1800)

Aaron Donald is the best defensive player in the league and will go down as one of the greatest in NFL history. He’s got a great matchup against a questionable Bengals’ offensive line.

We saw Cincinnati really struggle with pass protection against the Titans in the divisional game, as Burrow was sacked nine times. There’s a good chance that Donald causes major problems for the Bengals in the Super Bowl.

If Donald is able to rack up multiple sacks and the Rams win a low-scoring game, we could see him win MVP. The value is there and the matchup is right.

Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (+4000)

Tee Higgins needs to be considered the 1B in this Bengals offense, but he’s priced as if he’s the clear-cut number two wideout. Higgins leads the team in air yards and average target depth this postseason, which means that he’s targeted downfield at a high rate.

With that in mind, there’s a possibility that Higgins comes through with a huge performance in the Super Bowl. This is a player who has totaled 103 and 96 yards in his last two games.

While Chase is the better player, Higgins is a stud in his own right. The second-year wideout is the best value bet on the board for Super Bowl MVP props.

Super Bowl MVP Staff Picks

SB 56 MVP PicksWinnerFinal ScoreSB MVP
Frank AmmiranteRams27-17Aaron Donald
Gio AnnatelliBengals40-38Joe Burrow
John ArliaRams23-20Matthew Stafford
Paul BourdettBengals34-14Joe Burrow
Skyler CarlinRams31-24Cooper Kupp
Anthony CervinoBengals27-24Joe Burrow
Garrett ChorpenningBengals24-20Joe Burrow
Kevin DavisRams28-21Cooper Kupp
Jake EllenbogenRams30-27Matthew Stafford
Scott EngelRams34-24Aaron Donald
Nate HamiltonRams34-27Matthew Stafford
Tim HeaneyRams27-21Von Miller
Richard JanvrinBengals27-24Joe Burrow
Adam KramerBengals31-28Joe Burrow
Tyler MaherRams24-17Matthew Stafford
Kev MahserejianRams30-24Aaron Donald
Marcus MosherRams31-21Aaron Donald
Pat PickensRams34-20Aaron Donald
Josh ShepardsonRams24-21Cooper Kupp
Mike ThomsenBengals31-28Joe Burrow
Chris WasselRams31-24Matthew Stafford
Michael WaterlooBengals24-19Joe Burrow

Who will win Super Bowl MVP?

Aaron Donald, DT, Rams

While the obvious choice is Matthew Stafford because this is essentially a winning quarterback award, I’ll go bold and select Aaron Donald. The best defensive player of this generation will step up with a couple of sacks and multiple pressures. -FRANK AMMIRANTE

Donald will register four sacks and make sure the defensive line of the Rams is a dominant factor. —SCOTT ENGEL

Is it dumb to bet against a QB winning? Yes. Is Donald one of history’s few outliers that can accomplish this? Also yes. The Bengals’ OL isn’t the worst, but unless they completely ignore the rest of LA’s stacked defensive line, Donald should have the advantage against their weak spots at guard. —KEV MAHSEREJIAN

The Bengals offensive line has surrendered 12 sacks in three playoff games, and Donald is a bona fide game-wrecker. Plus those odds are way too tasty to pass up. —PAT PICKENS

The easy bet here would be to take Matthew Stafford, but Aaron Donald could easily steal this award. He should have a monster game and could record multiple sacks. Considering he is the best player on the field, don’t be shocked if the voters give him the award with how well he’s played throughout the playoffs. —MARCUS MOSHER

Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams

Quarterbacks have won Super Bowl MVP honors 11 of the past 15 years, so this is certainly a safer pick. Although Stafford doesn’t offer much value in the MVP market, betting him is a nice plus-money alternative to taking Los Angeles on the moneyline. —JOHN ARLIA

I wanted to say something not so obvious but if the Rams win this game Stafford is 100% getting the MVP as long as he doesn’t go out there and completely fall face-first on the grandest stage of them all. He hasn’t all playoffs, I don’t see why he would now. The Bengals defense will have a hard time stopping the tandem of Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. but regardless of that they will have a hard time stopping Stafford from erupting in the fourth quarter like he’s done all year to secure the win at SoFi.  -JAKE ELLENBOGEN

Matthew Stafford has been waiting a long time for this opportunity and has the pass-catching weapons to help him execute an MVP-type performance. -NATE HAMILTON

Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals

I was really close to putting defensive lineman Trey Hendrickson’s name in here. Instead, Burrow will end up winning it. He has played sensational football against all odds and coming off of a season-ending knee injury in his rookie campaign. If the Bengals win — and they will — Burrow will be the reason why. His poise and confidence will be the difference between the two quarterbacks and, ultimately, the final score.  —ANTHONY CERVINO

No quarterback has won the Heisman, National Title, and the Super Bowl before, so why not add one more piece of hardware to the list? Plus, nine years ago, he tweeted that Pootie Tang is a great all-time film. You can’t teach that. —MICHAEL WATERLOO

Better question: how amazing will his Super Bowl outfit be? It’ll be superb, that’s a given. And if Cincinnati wins—and it will—Burrow will take home the hardware. —ADAM KRAMER

I already said I think Burrow plays terrifically here and I think it’s more than enough to get him the MVP. If I had to predict a stat line, I’ll go 275 yards and three touchdowns—two passing and one on the ground. —RICHARD JANVRIN

The pride of Athens, Ohio, will throw three touchdowns, including two to Tee Higgins. -MIKE THOMSEN

If the Bengals win, I have a hard time seeing how it’ll be anybody other than Joe Burrow. Cincinnati wouldn’t be here without him. —GARRETT CHORPENNING

Joe Burrow has proved the haters wrong throughout the playoffs. He’s thrown for 842 yards and four touchdowns in three games and has gone up against tough defenses in the Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs. If the Bengals want to beat the Rams, they need to put the ball in Burrow’s hands. —GIO ANNATELLI

The Rams may be stout against the run, but their pass defense isn’t scaring anyone. It’s the perfect setup for Joe Burrow to throw a ton to his arsenal of aerial weapons, including RBs Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine, who ranked sixth among all running back tandems this season in yards after the catch. —PAUL BOURDETT

Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams

Stafford is the obvious choice, so the contrarian in me is skeptical. Cooper Kupp has a decent chance of having a few big plays, so why not sprinkle half a unit on him winning the MVP (Most Valuable Prop). —KEVIN DAVIS

Kupp has been an unstoppable force this year. He led the way in seemingly every meaningful statistic, with jaw-dropping usage and advanced metrics to support his dominance. As a result, he’s a decent bet to be the game-changing player in a Super Bowl win for the Rams. —JOSH SHEPARDSON

Quarterbacks are the easy choice when predicting the Super Bowl MVP, so I’m not surprised that Stafford and Burrow are popular here. While it’s a safe selection to take Stafford, Kupp has a legitimate chance to win the prestigious award as well.  Kupp has put together a historic campaign, and with Stafford locked on Kupp in crucial moments, and with no team having an answer for the All-Pro wideout, Kupp becomes the 8th WR in NFL history to win Super Bowl MVP. —SKYLER CARLIN

Stafford has waited his whole career to reach the Super Bowl, and he’s going to make the most of it, especially against Cincy’s suspect secondary. —TYLER MAHER

Von Miller, EDGE, Rams

I’ll go against the QB/Kupp/Donald Super Bow MVP grain. The Rams’ crushing advantage in the trenches will be punctuated by a Miller strip-six on Joe Burrow, who, frankly, is going to have a bad day dealing with the former Bronco and Aaron Donald.

Miller has found new life after joining the Rams, registering seven sacks in 11 games since switching teams. The Super Bowl 50 MVP will double his hardware with a dominating performance that helps end the Bengals’ Cinderella run. (Sorry, Yas.) —TIM HEANEY


How to Bet on Super Bowl MVP 2022

The first thing about you need to think about when placing a bet on Super Bowl MVP is, does this player play for the team that will win the game?

The Super Bowl MVP comes from the championship team, so it’s important to place a wager on a player who you think plays on the winning team.

Betting on Super Bowl MVP instead of Super Bowl winner can be a terrific way to find value. For example, let’s say that you like the Cincinnati Bengals (+160) to win the Super Bowl. If you stake $100 on this bet, you would win $160.

However, you can get more value on this bet by choosing Joe Burrow (+220) to win Super Bowl MVP, where risking $100 would pay $220. It’s highly likely that Burrow wins this award if Cincinnati wins it all.

Two Super Bowl MVP trends to remember:

(1) The prudent play when selecting your Super Bowl MVP is to pick a quarterback. 31 quarterbacks have won this award out of 55 Super Bowls (56.4%).

The NFL is more of a passing league nowadays, which is further reflected in the recent award winners: quarterbacks have won Super Bowl MVP in 11 of the past 15 years.

(2) The next closest positions are wide receiver and running back, each winning the award seven times throughout Super Bowl history. It’s interesting to note that a wideout has won the award four times in the last 17 Super Bowls while running backs did not win it during this stretch.

In fact, a running back has not won Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis in 1998.

This means that if you want to make a longshot bet on Super Bowl MVP, your best choice would be to select a wide receiver rather than a running back, especially due to the pass-heavy nature of today’s NFL. There has never been a tight end that won this award and it’s likely to remain that way in this matchup.

Author

Frank Ammirante

Before joining The Game Day, Frank spent three years in the fantasy sports and betting industry, writing for websites like RotoBaller and 4for4football. Frank is an active member of the fantasy baseball and fantasy football community, participating in high-stakes leagues like NFBC/NFFC as well as industry competitions like Scott Fish Bowl, RazzBowl, and TGFBI. Frank is a member of the FSWA and IBWAA. Give him a shout to talk fantasy sports and sports betting.

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