Super Bowl MVP Odds & Predictions | 2022 Super Bowl Most Valuable Player Award Pick

Table of Contents

By Frank Ammirante

Jan 27, 2022

The NFL Playoffs are down to the stretch run, which means that it’s time to determine the best pick for Super Bowl MVP. In this article, we’ll take a look at the best bet and value pick for the award.

We’ll also go through optimal strategies to help you make the best pick in this betting market.

Let’s dive in to find out where you should place a wager for Super Bowl MVP.

Please note that all NFL gameday lines are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. NFL Super Bowl odds are current as of 3:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 27.

Super Bowl MVP Odds 2022

Super Bowl 56 MVP lines heavily favor the quarterback position as well as Championship Game favorites:

  • Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+170)
  • Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (+350)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, San Francisco 49ers (+850)
  • Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams (+900)
  • Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+1000)
  • Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs (+2000)
  • Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (+2000)
  • Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers (+2000)
  • Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams (+3000)
  • George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers (+4000)
  • Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (+4000)
  • Elijah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers (+5000)
  • Cam Akers, RB, Los Angeles Rams (+5000)
  • Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Los Angeles Rams (+6000)
  • Von Miller, DE, Los Angeles Rams (+6000)

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Super Bowl MVP Prediction 2022

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+170)

The Chiefs (+130) are currently favored to win the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes is playing at an extremely high level right now, throwing for 20 touchdowns and two interceptions in his last seven games.

Mahomes has learned to be more patient as a quarterback, taking what the defense gives him rather than forcing the ball downfield. This has made him a complete quarterback that has surgically picked apart even the best opposing defenses.

Just look at the AFC Championship Game against the Buffalo Bills, who ranked 1st in pass defense this season. Mahomes threw for 378 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt.

It’s tough to see any team knocking off the Chiefs with Mahomes playing at top form. You save 40 cents on the moneyline by taking Mahomes to win MVP instead of the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl.

Player Prop

+170

Patrick Mahomes: Win Super Bowl 56 MVP

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Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs QB, raises the Vince Lombardi Trophy for Super Bowl 54 in 2020 Patrick Mahomes has the Chiefs on the doorstep of a third straight Super Bowl. Can he win his second Super Bowl MVP award in three years? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)


Super Bowl MVP Favorites

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (+350)

Matthew Stafford has played terrific football in the postseason after a slow finish down the stretch. The veteran quarterback has combined for 568 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions during these playoffs.

If the Rams win the Super Bowl, it’s likely that they won a shootout against one of the two best passers in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow.

Los Angeles is +210 to win the Super Bowl, giving them the second-highest odds among the remaining four teams. You get +140 additional value by going with Stafford to win MVP instead.

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, San Francisco 49ers (+850)

Jimmy Garoppolo has done a good job making the big throws when needed, but he’s mostly riding the coattails of a dominant defense and stacked offense that features two of the best playmakers in football in Deebo Samuel and George Kittle.

Garoppolo is your typical game manager at quarterback. He’s combined for only 303 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions during this postseason.



If the 49ers win the Super Bowl, it’s due to their defense and running game. It’s unlikely that Garoppolo would win Super Bowl MVP, making this one of the worst values on the board with the third-highest odds.

Super Bowl MVP Contenders & Value Bets

Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams (+900)

Cooper Kupp just finished a historic season, catching 145-of-191 targets for 1,947 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns. It was the second-most receiving yards in NFL history, only 17 yards shy of Calvin Johnson‘s record.

Since wideouts have won the award more often lately, that makes Kupp a strong value play over Stafford (+350). The Rams are +210 to win the Super Bowl, but you get more than four times as much potential payout by choosing Kupp as Super Bowl MVP.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (+2000)

Tyreek Hill has the ability to put up massive stat lines as a receiver. Just look at Week 1 against the Browns: 11 receptions, 197 yards, one touchdown, or Week 4 against the Eagles: 11 receptions, 186 yards, three touchdowns.



That kind of massive game is what it would take for a Chiefs’ pass-catcher to win Super Bowl MVP instead of Patrick Mahomes. Hill offers strong value at +2000, which is +1830 more than the Chiefs Super Bowl odds.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (+4000)

The Bengals have the lowest odds to win the Super Bowl at +750, so why not shoot for the moon when taking one of their players for Super Bowl MVP?

Ja’Marr Chase can blow up on any given game, just like we saw against the Chiefs: 11 receptions, 266 yards, three touchdowns, or Ravens: eight receptions, 201 yards, one touchdown.

If Cincinnati is able to win the Super Bowl, it would take a huge game like that for someone other than Joe Burrow to win the award. Chase looks like the best bet to reach that ceiling.

How to Bet on Super Bowl MVP 2022

The first thing about you need to think about when placing a bet on Super Bowl MVP is, does this player play for a team that can win the Super Bowl?

The Super Bowl MVP comes from the championship team, so it’s important to place a wager on a player who has a good chance to win the title.

Betting on Super Bowl MVP before the Super Bowl teams are known can be a terrific way to find value. For example, let’s say that you like the Cincinnati Bengals (+750) to win the Super Bowl. If you stake $100 on this bet, you would win $750.

However, you can get more value on this bet by choosing Joe Burrow (+1000) to win Super Bowl MVP, where risking $100 would pay $1,000. It’s likely that Burrow wins this award if Cincinnati wins it all.

Two Super Bowl MVP trends to remember:

(1) The prudent play when selecting your Super Bowl MVP is to pick a quarterback. 31 quarterbacks have won this award out of 55 Super Bowls (56.4%).

The NFL is more of a passing league nowadays, which is further reflected in the recent award winners: quarterbacks have won Super Bowl MVP in 11 of the past 15 years.

(2) The next closest positions are wide receiver and running back, each winning the award seven times throughout Super Bowl history. It’s interesting to note that a wideout has won the award four times in the last 17 Super Bowls while running backs did not win it during this stretch.

In fact, a running back has not won Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis in 1998.

This means that if you want to make a longshot bet on Super Bowl MVP, your best choice would be to select a wide receiver rather than a running back, especially due to the pass-heavy nature of today’s NFL. There has never been a tight end that won this award, but Travis Kelce and George Kittle are generational players, so keep that in mind.





Author

By Frank Ammirante

Before joining The Game Day, Frank spent three years in the fantasy sports and betting industry, writing for websites like RotoBaller and 4for4football. Frank is an active member of the fantasy baseball and fantasy football community, participating in high-stakes leagues like NFBC/NFFC as well as industry competitions like Scott Fish Bowl, RazzBowl, and TGFBI. Frank is a member of the FSWA and IBWAA. Give him a shout to talk fantasy sports and sports betting.

Schedule & Odds

Top Offers

NFL Betting News

  • Early money slightly leaning towards the over in the 49ers-Rams matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting good two-way action on the over/under for the NFC Championship Game matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 46 points has attracted 55% of the bets and 60% of the money thus far. Much moreso than the AFC Championship Game, the betting splits on the point spread and total in this game are much more evenly split, so the sportsbook does not have too much liability on either at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Los Angeles's -170 moneyline odds have attracted 60% of the bets and 70% of the money.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early bettors give slight lean to the Rams over the 49ers

    Based on the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook, the favored Los Angeles Rams are getting slightly more betting attention in their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Los Angeles's -3.5 point spread has received 65% of the bets and 61% of the handle thus far. Bettors are clearly torn in this matchup considering the Rams have arguably been playing better football through the first two playoff games, while the 49ers have won six consecutive games against the Rams, including a thrilling Week 18 overtime victory in Los Angeles.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early money more than 4/1 on the over in the Bengals-Chiefs matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's over/under in the matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 54.5 points has attracted 75% of the bets and 85% of the money thus far. At this point, the sportsbook has big liability to the Chiefs point spread and the over in this matchup, as their most ideal scenario would be a Bengals cover in a low-scoring game at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Kansas City's -335 moneyline odds have attracted 58% of the bets and 61% of the money.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • Early money 3/1 on the Chiefs over the Bengals

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, as the majority of the action is backing the favored Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Kansas City's -7 point spread has received 61% of the bets and 76% of the handle thus far. Cincinnati is shaping up to be the biggest need of any side or any total this weekend, as the public seems to be enamored with the Chiefs after their thrilling Divisional Round win over Buffalo.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • 49ers-Rams over/under reaches lowest number of the week

    After another line movement, the over/under for the NFC Championship matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams has reached its lowest total of the week.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the 49ers-Rams over/under on Sunday night was posted at 47.5 points. It was quickly bet down to 46.5 in less than 24 hours. However, it has once again moved toward the under, and now currently sits at 46 points. Given that there has not yet been buyback on the over, it is extremely unlikely we see the total get back to anywhere close to the 47.5 points it opened at.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page