The Super Bowl is over, which means we’re onto the 2023-24 regular season.
It may seem way too early, and frankly it is, but if you’re interested in placing your bets on the 2023 NFL MVP, have at it.
Let’s dig into the 2023 NFL MVP odds.
NFL MVP Futures Odds
Here are the current NFL odds for the MVP Award, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, as of noon ET on Monday, Feb. 13.
- Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+650)
- Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+650)
- Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (+800)
- Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (+1000)
- Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (+1300)
- Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins (+1500)
- Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (+1600)
- Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (+1700)
- Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars (+1700)
- Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys (+1800)
Patrick Mahomes won his second AP NFL MVP Award in near-unanimous fashion in 2022 and is the co-favorite to win it again in 2023. Mahomes had a magical season where he led the Chiefs to the Super Bowl and was No. 1 in the NFL in passing despite the offseason trade of his No. 1 wide receiver Tyreek Hill to Miami.
Joining Mahomes atop the odds is Joe Burrow, the uber-cool Bengals QB, who Mahomes edged out in the AFC Championship Game. Bills QB Josh Allen, the favorite for much of the 2022 season, comes in with the third-shortest odds followed by Chargers QB Justin Herbert.
Jalen Hurts, who was the MVP favorite until a late-season injury doomed his chances, was the top NFC player with the fifth-shortest odds. Much like the regular season, the Eagles QB was on the verge of winning Super Bowl MVP, until Mahomes stole the award with a huge second half of Kansas City’s 38-35 win in Super Bowl 57.
Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson, whose status and teams for 2023 are up in the air, follow Hurts and Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa. Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Dallas Cowboys signal caller Dak Prescott round out the top 10.
Since Adrian Peterson won the award in 2012, the past 10 MVPs have been quarterbacks. As a result, signal callers make up the top 29 shortest odds-getters for the 2023 MVP award. Wide receiver Justin Jefferson has the shortest odds of any non-QB at 100-1 odds.
NFL MVP Best Bet
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+650)
Mahomes is going to be worth considering, but Burrow seems on the verge of an MVP season in The Queen City. He might have won the award in 2022 if not for his team’s 0-2 start — or Cincinnati’s unfortunate canceled game against Buffalo on Monday Night Football.
Still, Burrow appears to be getting better every season, and the Bengals looked poised to rule the AFC North for the foreseeable future with Jackson appearing destined to leave Baltimore, a mess of uncertainty in Cleveland, and Pittsburgh rebuilding.
The NFL MVP debate will likely center around the three AFC QBs, Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow, whose teams are the most likely to finish with the conference’s top seed. KC, Buffalo, and Cincinnati will all play each other again in 2023, and given Burrow’s success against Mahomes — he’s now 3-1 against the Chiefs in his career — I’ll take Burrow to be the guy standing at the end of the day.
NFL MVP Favorites
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+650)
It’s almost impossible not to love watching Mahomes play at an MVP level given his level of creativity and expertise. He’s a wizard who finds ways to make plays, mainly with his arm at this point, but also with his legs as he did during the postseason.
He seems destined to win several more MVPs, and the Chiefs will always be among the top teams in the league with No. 15 suiting up behind center. Depending on what happens during the offseason, Mahomes’ odds only should get shorter as the NFL season approaches.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (+800)
Allen was the well-deserved favorite for most of the season until Buffalo’s season hit a midseason snag. Allen has a 2-1 regular-season record against Mahomes, and is 1-0 against Cincinnati in the regular season, yet hasn’t been able to surpass either in the playoffs over the past three years.
Allen is as good a bet as any for 2023 MVP honors, especially if you feel he and the Bills are finally poised to get over the top and reach or win Super Bowl LVIII.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (+1300)
It’s hard to believe Hurts, who finished runner-up to Mahomes in MVP voting in 2022, could have only the fifth-shortest odds. But here we are.
The Eagles QB had an exceptional season and was on pace to win the award before sustaining a shoulder injury in Week 15 against the Bears. His style of play, and the type of offense he is in charge of leaves him susceptible to injury, but he should be again on the short list of MVP candidates in 2023.
NFL MVP Sleepers
Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears (+3000)
Fields had an exceptional 2022 season, finishing tied for ninth in MVP voting despite the Bears’ dreadful 3-14 record and the fact he missed their final two games with a hip injury.
But quarterbacks almost always progress, and Fields should continue to take greater strides in 2023. With the potential for the NFC North to be down if Rodgers leaves and/or Minnesota regresses, Chicago could get in the mix for a playoff spot.
If they do, Fields will almost certainly generate some MVP buzz.
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions (+4500)
The Lions are going to be a trendy pick to win the NFC North and make the playoffs in 2023. Goff, who threw for more than 4,400 yards, should have an embarrassment of offensive weapons at his disposal in Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Chark, and Josh Reynolds, the latter two of whom missed multiple games due to injury.
Goff’s candidacy was doomed, like the Lions’ playoff hopes, after Detroit started 1-6. But if they can start hot and have a big year, you’ll hear some MVP buzz for the Motor City QB.
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (+5000)
Murray had the season from hell in 2022, capped with a devastating torn ACL in December. That makes it easy to forget that Murray was a bona fide MVP candidate until Arizona’s season went sideways in 2021.
Many players recover from ACL injuries, and although he may take some time to get back up to speed, Murray has MVP talent as long as his team is competitive. If the Cards are in the mix, it’ll boost Murray’s candidacy, as long as he’s healthy.
