In recent years, the NFL MVP award has honored the league’s best quarterback.
Quarterbacks have won the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award in 13 consecutive seasons, with Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams being the most recent recipient in 2025.
The last non-quarterback to win NFL MVP was Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson in 2012.
Ahead of the new season, I’ll assess the latest odds, analyze the favorites, and make my NFL MVP prediction for 2026.
NFL MVP Odds 2026
All football odds used for these 2026 NFL MVP predictions are current as of Monday, Aug. 10, and courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Josh Allen (+650)
- Lamar Jackson (+850)
- Joe Burrow (+900)
- Matthew Stafford (+900)
- Justin Herbert (+1000)
- Drake Maye (+1000)
- Patrick Mahomes (+1300)
- Dak Prescott (+1400)
- Caleb Williams (+1500)
- Brock Purdy (+2000)
- Trevor Lawrence (+2000)
- Jayden Daniels (+2200)
- Jordan Love (+2200)
- Jalen Hurts (+2500)
- Sam Darnold (+2500)
All other players have odds of +3500 or longer.
Who Will Win NFL MVP?
Joe Burrow (+900)
Burrow’s reputation has taken a slight hit in the three seasons since he led the Bengals to a second consecutive AFC Championship Game appearance.
Part of that has been due to injury, as he failed to play more than 10 games in two of the previous three campaigns. And part of that has been Cincinnati’s lack of team success, as it has failed to reach the postseason since that 2022-23 campaign.
However, there’s no denying that Burrow is among the NFL’s elite quarterbacks when healthy.
In his lone 17-game season during the last three years, he topped the NFL in passing yards (4,918) and touchdown passes (43) while throwing just nine interceptions to finish fourth in MVP voting and win NFL Comeback Player of the Year.
- See this year’s candidates in our NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds.
Heading into 2026, Burrow remains the epicenter of what should be a top-10 offense that features a pair of elite pass-catchers in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, a versatile running back in Chase Brown, and, most importantly to his health concerns, a solid offensive line.
The Bengals also have added some key pieces on defense that should help this team compete for the AFC North title, especially since they have the easiest strength of schedule in football, per ESPN. Therefore, there’s a good chance Cincinnati has a better season than it has had the past three years.
Between the potential for team success, league-leading statistics, and a redemption-arc narrative, there’s a great opportunity for Burrow to win his first NFL MVP this season, so I’m backing him at +900 odds as my NFL pick of the day.
NFL MVP Contenders
Josh Allen (+650)
Allen is the betting favorite to win the NFL MVP award this season, but there are some legitimate concerns about his candidacy.
For one, the Bills enter the season with a first-year head coach, Joe Brady, who will take on additional responsibilities after calling the Buffalo offense for the past two-plus seasons. While Allen’s offensive situation shouldn’t change much, Buffalo’s team success could vary depending on how well it adjusts from Sean McDermott’s defense to Jim Leonard’s.
- See where Buffalo sits in the latest Super Bowl odds.
There’s also the matter of living up to lofty expectations, as Allen and the Bills have been remarkably consistent since the start of the decade. Buffalo has won five of the last six AFC East titles, and Allen plays 16 or 17 games and puts up gaudy numbers year-over-year. Anything short of that will be a disappointment.
Additionally, there still could be a bit of voter fatigue around Allen, who won his first NFL MVP award in 2024 after finishing in the top five of voting three previous times (2023, 2022, and 2020).
Lamar Jackson (+850)
Speaking of voter fatigue, that’s one of the main arguments against two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson.
If the Baltimore Ravens’ star were to win a third, he’d become just the seventh player to win more than two, joining a group that currently includes Peyton Manning (five), Aaron Rodgers (four), Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Johnny Unitas, and Jim Brown (all three).
Durability also remains a concern for Jackson, who has played 13 or fewer games in three of the past five seasons.
While I’d love to buy Jackson’s potential under new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, these odds and circumstances don’t line up.
NFL MVP Sleeper Pick
Trevor Lawrence (+2000)
Much like Burrow, Trevor Lawrence has the opportunity to be the former No. 1 overall pick who finally put it all together and lived up to his potential.
The Jacksonville Jaguars’ quarterback thrust himself into the NFL MVP conversation down the stretch of last season after throwing 15 touchdown passes and just one interception in his final six games. However, his early-season struggles held him back against the likes of Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye.
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Still, there was plenty to like about Lawrence’s showing under first-year head coach Liam Coen, who has quickly proven to be one of the league’s top offensive minds. The Clemson product set career-highs in passing touchdowns (29) and rushing touchdowns (nine), and topped 4,000 passing yards for the third time in five seasons.
If Lawrence takes another step forward this campaign, he could make another run at NFL MVP honors if the Jaguars challenge the Houston Texans for the AFC South title.
How NFL MVP Voting Is Judged
Like every other NFL award, the NFL’s official Most Valuable Player award is determined by 50 sportswriters in voting compiled by the Associated Press. Thus, the official award title is the AP NFL MVP.
Voters submit their ballots, choosing their pick for league MVP, directly after the regular season but before the playoffs have started. The votes are tabulated, and the winner is announced at NFL Honors, the league’s annual award show, during the week of the Super Bowl.
When NFL MVP Is Announced
The NFL MVP is the headliner award at NFL Honors, which is annually held during Super Bowl week at the site of the big game. This year’s NFL Honors will be in Las Vegas in early February, though that has not yet been officially scheduled.
Former NFL MVPs
- 1957: Jim Brown, RB, Cleveland Browns
- 1958: Jim Brown, RB, Browns
- 1959: Johnny Unitas, QB, Baltimore Colts
- 1961: Paul Hornung, RB, Green Bay Packers
- 1962: Jim Taylor, RB, Packers
- 1963: Y.A. Tittle, QB, New York Giants
- 1964: Johnny Unitas, QB, Colts
- 1965: Jim Brown, RB, Browns
- 1966: Bart Starr, QB, Packers
- 1967: Johnny Unitas, QB, Colts
- 1968: Earl Morrall, QB, Colts
- 1969: Roman Gabriel, QB, Los Angeles Rams
- 1970: John Brodie, QB, San Francisco 49ers
- 1971: Alan Page, DT, Minnesota Vikings
- 1972: Larry Brown, RB, Washington
- 1973: O.J. Simpson, RB, Buffalo Bills
- 1974: Ken Stabler, QB, Oakland Raiders
- 1975: Fran Tarkenton, QB, Vikings
- 1976: Bert Jones, QB, Colts
- 1977: Walter Payton, RB, Chicago Bears
- 1978: Terry Bradshaw, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
- 1979: Earl Campbell, RB, Houston Oilers
- 1980: Brian Sipe, QB, Browns
- 1981: Ken Anderson, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
- 1982: Mark Moseley, K, Washington
- 1983: Joe Theismann, QB, Washington
- 1984: Dan Marino, QB, Miami Dolphins
- 1985: Marcus Allen, RB, Los Angeles Raiders
- 1986: Lawrence Taylor, LB, Giants
- 1987: John Elway, QB, Denver Broncos
- 1988: Boomer Esiason, QB, Bengals
- 1989: Joe Montana, QB, 49ers
- 1990: Joe Montana, QB, 49ers
- 1991: Thurman Thomas, RB, Bills
- 1992: Steve Young, QB, 49ers
- 1993: Emmitt Smith, RB, Cowboys
- 1994: Steve Young, QB, 49ers
- 1995: Brett Favre, QB, Packers
- 1996: Brett Favre, QB, Packers
- 1997: Brett Favre, QB, Packers / Barry Sanders, RB, Detroit Lions
- 1998: Terrell Davis, RB, Broncos
- 1999: Kurt Warner, QB, St. Louis Rams
- 2000: Marshall Faulk, RB, Rams
- 2001: Kurt Warner, QB, Rams
- 2002: Rich Gannon, QB, Oakland Raiders
- 2003: Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts / Steve McNair, QB, Tennessee Titans
- 2004: Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
- 2005: Shaun Alexander, RB, Seattle Seahawks
- 2006: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers
- 2007: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
- 2008: Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
- 2009: Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
- 2010: Tom Brady, QB, Patriots
- 2011: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
- 2012: Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
- 2013: Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos
- 2014: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
- 2015: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
- 2016: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
- 2017: Tom Brady, QB, Patriots
- 2018: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
- 2019: Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
- 2020: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
- 2021: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
- 2022: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs
- 2023: Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
- 2024: Josh Allen, QB, Bills
- 2025: Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams
