NFL MVP Odds 2022 | Most Valuable Player Predictions

There are only four weeks left of the 2021 NFL season and the MVP award race is wide open. So who are the best bets on the board and is there any darkhorse candidate worth betting on? And is there any chance a non-quarterback could take home the award in 2021?

To help guide you in the NFL MVP predictions series, here are our 2021-22 MVP predictions and betting tips courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. All odds are current as of Thursday, December 16.


NFL Most Valuable Player Futures Odds

After 13 games, the field of potential MVP winners has been narrowed down quite a bit. Still, there isn’t a single player who is running away with the award. With four games left, there are still a handful of players that could win the award with a few strong performances.

Here are the current odds, courtesy of TwinSpires:

  • Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-175)
  • Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (+500)
  • Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (+1200)
  • Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (+1400)
  • Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys (+1400)
  • Chargers QB Justin Herbert (+1600)
  • Bills QB Josh Allen (+2000)
  • Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (+2000)
  • Rams WR Cooper Kupp (+5000)

It’s worth mentioning that a few contenders, such as Lamar Jackson (+6500) and Joe Burrow (+10000) have fallen off dramatically over the last two weeks. Neither the Ravens nor the Bengals are locks to make the playoffs and that has hurt their odds to win the MVP award in a big way. Meanwhile, James Conner (+20000) is now an option as he scored his 16th touchdown of the season on Monday Night Football against the Rams.


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Best NFL MVP Sleeper Bets

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (+500)

Rodgers isn’t quite having the same success that he did last year during his MVP season. However, that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be part of the conversation. Green Bay is 10-2 in the game that’s he’s started and he’s still putting up some really incredible numbers. Over the last eight games, he’s averaging over 8.1 yards per attempt with a passer rating of 112.3.

If the Packers wind up being the No. 1 seed in the NFC, Rodgers will certainly be in the conversation. And if he plays well in a few primetime games (Browns, Vikings), voters might not have any choice but to pick Rodgers once again. At +500, he is still a good value for the MVP award.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert (+1600)

The case for Justin Herbert is simple; if the Chargers win the AFC West, he’ll likely be in the conversation for the MVP award. Herbert has already scored 32 touchdowns this season and has five game-winning drives. He’s been absolutely fantastic over the last few games as he’s helped make the Chargers one of the league’s most explosive offenses.

The Chargers have an 8-5 record and should make the playoffs in 2021 and we know that matters to voters. As long as Herbert continues to put up big numbers and the Chargers keep winning, he’ll be one of the top options considering how well he’s played for a majority of the season.

Rams WR Cooper Kupp (+5000)

A wide receiver has never won the NFL MVP award, but Cooper Kupp might have a pretty good case. Through 13 games, he’s already caught 113 passes for 1,489 yards and 12 touchdowns. No other player in the NFL has caught more than 92 passes this season and he has over 200 more receiving yards than the next closest player (Justin Jefferson).

Kupp is averaging a career-high 114.5 receiving yards per game and if he continues at this pace, he’ll come very close to 2,000 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns. Those numbers should at least get him in the conversation for the MVP award, which makes him a solid bet at 50:1.


NFL Most Valuable Player Award Predictions 2021

Buccaneers QB Tom Brady to Win NFL MVP (-175)

Tom Brady was our pick at the beginning of the year and nothing has changed since. His team is 10-3 and they should be double-digit favorites in every game the rest of the way. If the Buccaneers go 14-3 and they are the No. 1 seed in the NFC, it’s going to be awfully hard to vote for anyone other than Brady.

That doesn’t even factor in his numbers, which are already fantastic. In 13 games, Brady has already thrown 36 touchdowns, which is tied for the fourth-most in any season in his career. He would need to throw 15 touchdowns in the final four games of the season to beat his personal record of 51 and that certainly isn’t off the table considering their opponents left on the schedule.

This is going to be another season in which Brady throws for nearly 5,000 yards and scores close to 50 total touchdowns. Even at -175, Brady is a good bet right now to win the MVP award.

Thanks for reading our NFL Most Valuable Player & Futures Odds! For more NFL bet picks, check out our NFL odds and NFL betting picks. If you’re interested in betting on the Super Bowl, check out Marcus Mosher’s best Super Bowl 56 picks.

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NFL Betting News

  • Early money slightly leaning towards the over in the 49ers-Rams matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting good two-way action on the over/under for the NFC Championship Game matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 46 points has attracted 55% of the bets and 60% of the money thus far. Much moreso than the AFC Championship Game, the betting splits on the point spread and total in this game are much more evenly split, so the sportsbook does not have too much liability on either at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Los Angeles's -170 moneyline odds have attracted 60% of the bets and 70% of the money.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early bettors give slight lean to the Rams over the 49ers

    Based on the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook, the favored Los Angeles Rams are getting slightly more betting attention in their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Los Angeles's -3.5 point spread has received 65% of the bets and 61% of the handle thus far. Bettors are clearly torn in this matchup considering the Rams have arguably been playing better football through the first two playoff games, while the 49ers have won six consecutive games against the Rams, including a thrilling Week 18 overtime victory in Los Angeles.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early money more than 4/1 on the over in the Bengals-Chiefs matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's over/under in the matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 54.5 points has attracted 75% of the bets and 85% of the money thus far. At this point, the sportsbook has big liability to the Chiefs point spread and the over in this matchup, as their most ideal scenario would be a Bengals cover in a low-scoring game at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Kansas City's -335 moneyline odds have attracted 58% of the bets and 61% of the money.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • Early money 3/1 on the Chiefs over the Bengals

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, as the majority of the action is backing the favored Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Kansas City's -7 point spread has received 61% of the bets and 76% of the handle thus far. Cincinnati is shaping up to be the biggest need of any side or any total this weekend, as the public seems to be enamored with the Chiefs after their thrilling Divisional Round win over Buffalo.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • 49ers-Rams over/under reaches lowest number of the week

    After another line movement, the over/under for the NFC Championship matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams has reached its lowest total of the week.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the 49ers-Rams over/under on Sunday night was posted at 47.5 points. It was quickly bet down to 46.5 in less than 24 hours. However, it has once again moved toward the under, and now currently sits at 46 points. Given that there has not yet been buyback on the over, it is extremely unlikely we see the total get back to anywhere close to the 47.5 points it opened at.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page