There’s a clear front-runner in the race for NFL MVP.
But with three-and-a-half months still left in the regular season, the odds and favorites are sure to shift.
Let’s take a look at the NFL MVP odds after Week 3.
NFL MVP Futures Odds
Keep track every day for the latest line movement in NFL odds for the MVP Award and more futures:
NFL MVP lines used in this article were found at DraftKings Sportsbook, as of Friday, Sept. 29, at 9 a.m. ET. Strikethrough indicates line movement since preseason.
- Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
(+600)(+380) - Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
(+700)(+550) - Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
(+850)(+750) - Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
(+800)(+850) - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans (+1200)
- Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (
+1200)(+1500) - Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (
+1800)(+1600) - Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers (
+2200)(+2000) - Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+2000)
- Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
(+1500)(+2000) - Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
(+5500)(+2500) - Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns (+2800)
- Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
(+1500)(+3500) - Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
(+4500)(+3500)
Tua Tagovailoa is officially the MVP favorite through three weeks, dropping from +2200 preseason to less than 4-1 odds after guiding the Dolphins offense to a historic start through three games.
Patrick Mahomes, the 2022 winner, is not far behind after he and the Chiefs rolled the Bears in Week 3. Jalen Hurts – who has not been great through three weeks but whose Eagles are 3-0 – follows Tagovailoa and the defending MVP.
NFL MVP Best Bet
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins (+380)
Through three games, the Dolphins quarterback is the MVP of the league.
The connection between Tagovailoa and superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill is bordering on magical. Tagovailoa is fifth in the NFL in completion percentage (71.3) and third in yards (1,024) while also leading the NFL in yards per pass attempt (10.1), which is exactly two yards per attempt more than second-place Brock Purdy.
The only question is if Tagovailoa can stay upright all season. Whether Miami can keep Tagovailoa healthy is going to be a huge storyline, since his career could be in doubt with another concussion.
That’s the only hang-up I’d have in putting my money down on Tagovailoa. Otherwise, he looks like a great candidate at this point.
NFL MVP Contenders
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+550)
Now that was more like Mahomes. The Chiefs QB finally had an interception-free day, throwing for 272 yards and three TDs in a rout over the hapless Bears defense.
That performance shortened the two-time MVP’s odds from +700. If Mahomes continues to galvanize the Chiefs with this corps of receivers, then he’ll be on the short list of MVP candidates by season’s end.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (+750)
Hurts is a Swiss Army knife quarterback for the Eagles, who should be the best team in football in 2023. He’s a great candidate for MVP.
Still, through three weeks, Hurts and the Eagles’ offense hasn’t yet gotten uncorked, since Hurts has as many touchdowns as interceptions (three). Plus, his style of play and the type of offense he is in charge of leaves him susceptible to injury, which is what doomed his candidacy in 2022.
But the Eagles will play the Bills, Chiefs, Dolphins, 49ers, and Cowboys twice, which means Hurts will have the opportunity to go head-to-head against each fellow MVP candidate. That will give him a legitimate chance to take the award.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (+850)
Josh Allen has looked more like himself the past two weeks after that incomprehensible loss to the Jets in Week 1. He finally got running the ball with 46 yards and a score in Buffalo’s 37-3 win over the Commanders.
Like Hurts, Allen will have the opportunity to win the award throughout the season, especially with two meetings against the Dolphins coming up. Their first showdown, in Orchard Park, New York, is Sunday.
NFL MVP Sleepers
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+2000)
The Bengals got back on track after an 0-2 start, which is exactly what happened last season, too. Joe Burrow got squarely into the MVP conversation by ripping off 10 wins in Cincinnati’s final 12 regular-season games.
This season might be more difficult, given the fact Burrow is nursing a calf injury. But if he and Cincinnati persevere, Burrow’s odds are going to shorten drastically.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers (+2500)
We’ve been trying to warn you. The Niners have looked like the best team in the NFC through three weeks, and Christian McCaffrey is almost certainly their most important player.
Brock Purdy may be the most likely MVP candidate as the team’s quarterback, but if there’s a non-QB who could steal the award, it’s McCaffrey (he can throw touchdowns, too, as he did in 2022).
His odds have shortened from +8000 all the way to +2500 since McCaffrey is leading the NFL in rushing and hasn’t even gotten involved in the passing game yet.
The last non-QB to win MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012, so there’s reason to pause before putting down your bets — he has the 11th-shortest odds and is the only non-QB in the top 16.
But it’s getting less and less lucrative to cash in on McCaffrey’s candidacy.
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions (+3500)
Jared Goff and the Lions are looking legit, especially after their 34-20 beatdown of the Packers on Thursday night.
The Detroit quarterback doesn’t light up opponents on the road anywhere near as well as he puts up numbers at Ford Field. But if the Lions enter the crop of NFC elite, along with Philadelphia, Dallas, and San Francisco, then Goff will almost certainly get in the conversation for MVP.
How is NFL MVP Voting Judged
Like every other NFL award, the NFL’s official Most Valuable Player award is determined by 50 sportswriters in voting that is compiled by the Associated Press. Thus, the official award title is the AP NFL MVP.
Voters submit their ballots, where they choose their pick for league MVP, directly after the regular season but before the playoffs have started. The votes are tabulated, and the winner is announced at NFL Honors, the league’s annual award show, during the week of the Super Bowl.
When is NFL MVP Announced
The NFL MVP is the headliner award at NFL Honors, which is annually held during Super Bowl week at the site of the big game. This year’s NFL Honors will be in Las Vegas in early February, though that has not yet been officially scheduled.
Former NFL MVPs
- 1957: Jim Brown, RB, Cleveland Browns
- 1958: Jim Brown, RB, Browns
- 1959: Johnny Unitas, QB, Baltimore Colts
- 1961: Paul Hornung, RB, Green Bay Packers
- 1962: Jim Taylor, RB, Packers
- 1963: Y.A. Tittle, QB, New York Giants
- 1964: Johnny Unitas, QB, Colts
- 1965: Jim Brown, RB, Browns
- 1966: Bart Starr, QB, Packers
- 1967: Johnny Unitas, QB, Colts
- 1968: Earl Morrall, QB, Colts
- 1969: Roman Gabriel, QB, Los Angeles Rams
- 1970: John Brodie, QB, San Francisco 49ers
- 1971: Alan Page, DT, Minnesota Vikings
- 1972: Larry Brown, RB, Washington Commanders
- 1973: O.J. Simpson, RB, Buffalo Bills
- 1974: Ken Stabler, QB, Oakland Raiders
- 1975: Fran Tarkenton, QB, Vikings
- 1976: Bert Jones, QB, Colts
- 1977: Walter Payton, RB, Chicago Bears
- 1978: Terry Bradshaw, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
- 1979: Earl Campbell, RB, Houston Oilers
- 1980: Brian Sipe, QB, Browns
- 1981: Ken Anderson, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
- 1982: Mark Moseley, K, Washington
- 1983: Joe Theismann, QB, Washington
- 1984: Dan Marino, QB, Miami Dolphins
- 1985: Marcus Allen, RB, Los Angeles Raiders
- 1986: Lawrence Taylor, LB, Giants
- 1987: John Elway, QB, Denver Broncos
- 1988: Boomer Esiason, QB, Bengals
- 1989: Joe Montana, QB, 49ers
- 1990: Joe Montana, QB, 49ers
- 1991: Thurman Thomas, RB, Bills
- 1992: Steve Young, QB, 49ers
- 1993: Emmitt Smith, RB, Cowboys
- 1994: Steve Young, QB, 49ers
- 1995: Brett Favre, QB, Packers
- 1996: Brett Favre, QB, Packers
- 1997: Brett Favre, QB, Packers/Barry Sanders, RB, Detroit Lions
- 1998: Terrell Davis, RB, Broncos
- 1999: Kurt Warner, QB, St. Louis Rams
- 2000: Marshall Faulk, RB, Rams
- 2001: Kurt Warner, QB, Rams
- 2002: Rich Gannon, QB, Oakland Raiders
- 2003: Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts/Steve McNair, QB, Tennessee Titans
- 2004: Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
- 2005: Shaun Alexander, RB, Seattle Seahawks
- 2006: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers
- 2007: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
- 2008: Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
- 2009: Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
- 2010: Tom Brady, QB, Patriots
- 2011: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
- 2012: Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
- 2013: Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos
- 2014: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
- 2015: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
- 2016: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
- 2017: Tom Brady, QB, Patriots
- 2018: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
- 2019: Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
- 2020: Aaron Rodgers, QB Packers
- 2021: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
- 2022: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs
