NFL MVP Odds & Best Bets

Posted: Nov 26, 2022Last updated: Nov 27, 2022

We now officially have a clear favorite for NFL MVP.

But there are still a trio of QBs who could swoop in and steal the award from 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes and a stable of others who could charge in over the final seven weeks.

Here’s a look at the odds.

NFL MVP Futures Odds

Here are the current NFL odds for the MVP Award, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, as of 11 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 22. Line movement from last week is included in strikethrough text.

  • Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+120) (-160)
  • Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (+500) (+600)
  • Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (+500) (+650)
  • Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins (+500) (+650)
  • Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+2300) (+2600)
  • Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (+1200) (+2600)
  • Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks (+3200) (+3800)
  • Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings (+3200) (+5000)
  • Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins (+7500)
  • Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7500)

Select NFL Most Valuable Player from this odds interface by changing the Super Bowl 57 - Winner dropdown to Awards - Most Valuable Player.

Patrick Mahomes is now the clear frontrunner for NFL MVP. The Chiefs quarterback continued his unlikely march to the award with another MVP-caliber performance, throwing for 329 yards and three touchdowns while guiding the Chiefs to a game-winning drive in a 30-27 win over the Chargers on national TV Sunday night.

After a subpar performance in Week 11, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts rallied his team back for a 17-16 victory over the Colts Sunday. Hurts guided the Eagles from a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to dodge their second straight loss and led Philadelphia in both passing and rushing Sunday.

Josh Allen‘s odds continued to dip after another lackluster performance in Buffalo’s eight-point win over the Browns in Detroit. As expected, Tua Tagovailoa‘s odds took a hit, or became more favorable depending on your vantage point, with Miami on a bye.

NFL MVP Best Bet

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (-160)

The race is Mahomes’ to lose, and few aside from Tagovailoa, Allen, and Hurts can catch him at this point.

The Chiefs QB has put the team on his back over its four-game winning streak. Mahomes has thrown for 300-plus yards in every game, and Sunday’s win over the Chargers was his third fourth-quarter comeback victory in the past six weeks.

Mahomes has never lost a game in November or December over his five seasons as Chiefs quarterback. If that streak continues — only two of their final seven games will be against a team with a winning record — his odds will only get shorter.

NFL MVP Favorites

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (+600)

Hurts re-entered the chat with a resurgent performance in Indy on Sunday. He had a passing and rushing touchdown in the fourth quarter of Philadelphia’s come-from-behind win and posted his first 80-plus-yard rushing game since Week 1.

The Eagles have looked sluggish in three straight weeks, but Hurts has willed them to a pair of wins over the Colts and Texans sandwiched around a home loss to the Commanders.

That loss might’ve cost Hurts the MVP. But if he starts becoming the dual-threat option he was earlier in the season, and/or Mahomes falters, the Eagles QB still could steal the award.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins (+650)

As expected, Tagovailoa was out of sight and out of mind, thus his ascent in MVP odds took a break with Miami’s bye.

That makes now a perfect time to bet him to win if you think he and the Dolphins will continue their climb toward the AFC East crown. Whichever AFC quarterback carries his team to the No. 1 seed will likely win the MVP — unless Hurts goes off over the final seven weeks. Miami is just a game back of KC, which gives him a still-strong chance to win the award based on the fact it is 7-0 in games Tua finishes and 0-3 in the games he didn’t play.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (+650)

The Bills hung on for an eight-point victory over the Browns in a game moved to Detroit due to snow, but Allen’s MVP candidacy is fading fast. The Buffalo quarterback had just 197 yards passing and only seven rushing yards, and the Bills used tandem running backs James Cook and Devin Singletary (86 rushing yards apiece) to take down Cleveland.

It’s crazy to think I was projecting Allen would run away and hide with the MVP just a few weeks ago after the Bills took down the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. But his troublesome elbow injury doesn’t seem to be going away, and although they are tied for the AFC’s second-best record, the Bills and Allen’s MVP candidacy appear to be fading as the calendar gets set to roll to December.


Pat Pickens

Pat Pickens is a seasoned sportswriter who has covered the NHL since 2013 for various websites, including The New York Times,,, USA Today, the Associated Press and many others. His debut book, titled "The Whalers" about the history of the NHL's Hartford Whalers, was released in October 2021. His greatest successful wager was an LA Kings puck-line bet (+200) in Game 1 of the 2012 Western Conference Final.

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