NFL MVP Odds & Predictions

Posted: Jun 19, 2022Last updated: Jun 29, 2022

The 2022 season is just a few months away, and this year promises to be one of the most exciting in league history. The NFL has never been more loaded with quarterback talent, and it should make for a highly competitive MVP race.

But who is the current favorite to win the award this year, and is there a dark horse (or two) worth betting on for MVP?

To help guide you in the NFL MVP predictions series, here are our 2022-2023 MVP predictions and betting tips courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.

All odds are current as of Wednesday, June 8, 2022

NFL Most Valuable Player Futures Odds

As you would expect, the MVP race is littered with quarterbacks at the top. As a result, the top 16 players are all quarterbacks in terms of the odds. The first non-QBs in the MVP odds are Deebo Samuel (+5000) and Cooper Kupp (+5000).

If neither of those players could win the award after the seasons they posted in 2021, it feels highly unlikely that they will be even close to contention again this season.

So who is the current favorite to win the award and what are the odds that Aaron Rodgers can win his third-straight MVP award? Here are the current odds, courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook:

  • Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+700)
  • Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (+700)
  • Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+800)
  • Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (+900)
  • Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (+1000)
  • Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+1200)
  • Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (+1400)
  • Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys (+1400)
  • Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos (+1400)
  • Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (+1400)
  • Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (+2000)
  • Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (+2500)
  • Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns (+2500)
  • Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders (+3000)

The odds do vary from site to site, but Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are viewed as the two favorites right now to take home the award. Mahomes is searching for his third MVP award after a down season in 2021, while Allen is looking to win the award for the first time after a monster year.

Interestingly, Rodgers only has the fourth-best odds (+900) to win the MVP award this season. Could there be some voter fatigue, or is the departure of Davante Adams enough to lower the odds that much?


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NFL MVP Prediction

Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+800)

There was a real temptation here to go with one of the young quarterbacks, such as Josh Allen or Justin Herbert. However, both of those players are in the prime of their careers on offenses that should put up video game-like numbers.

However, the player that is the most likely to win the award this season is none other than Tom Brady. One of the best ways to predict who will win the upcoming MVP award is to look at previous winners. Most of the time, the players that have won the award before are likely to do so again.

Elite quarterbacks such as Brady are always in the running, and he is in a position to win his fourth MVP award. Brady led the NFL in passing yards last season, and he could easily do it again in 2022. If the Buccaneers finish as the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the NFC, there will be a big push from the national media to give him the award considering he would win the award at age 45.

Brady isn’t quite the favorite to win the award, but he is close. However, he is the best bet at +800 given his play last year, the team around him in 2022, and this potentially being his final season in the NFL.

Best NFL MVP Sleeper Bets

Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders (+3000)

Carr led the NFL in passing yards in the first half of the season before losing Henry Ruggs (release) and Darren Waller (injury). However, he was still able to lead the Raiders to a 10-7 record and the playoffs.

Going into 2022, the Raiders added arguably the best receiver in the NFL in Davante Adams, and they will get back a healthy Waller. Carr should put up monster numbers this season, and he could easily eclipse 5,000 passing yards.

If the Raiders can win the super-competitive AFC West and Carr can throw for 5,000 yards with 40+ touchdowns, he will be among the favorites. This is a great value bet here as the Raiders should have one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers (+4000)

The 49ers probably don’t throw enough for Lance to win the MVP award, but it wouldn’t be shocking if he threw for 3,000 or more yards and ran for close to 1,000 yards.

It will be tough for Lance to win the award given his lack of experience and low-volume passing offense, but you are betting on one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL making a giant leap in Year 2. The 49ers should win a bunch of games, and they will be in the national spotlight a ton.

Plus, a second-year quarterback winning the award isn’t uncommon, as both Patrick Mahomes (2018) and Lamar Jackson (2019) have done it in recent years. So for that reason alone, he is a good value at 40-1.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins (+6600)

This bet is a pure value play as the Dolphins have one of the most explosive offenses in NFL history now with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. They also have a bunch of interesting complementary players, such as Cedrick Wilson, Mike Gesicki, and Chase Edmonds.

But everything comes down to Tagovailoa for them. The expectations aren’t very high, but what if he reverts to the player we saw at Alabama? What if he does start to perform like an elite quarterback?

At 66-1, these odds are too good to pass up. Miami will be a good team again this season, and they could even be an elite one if Tagovailoa can take the next step as a passer.

Jameis Winston, QB, New Orleans Saints (+6600)

Before he went down with an ACL injury, Winston was playing the best football of his career. The Saints were 5-2 with him as the starter and had impressive wins over the Packers, Patriots, and the Buccaneers.

Winston was on pace to throw for 34 touchdowns and just seven interceptions without Michael Thomas. Heading into the 2022 season, Winston should have a healthy Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and Chris Olave to throw to.

Winston should get some MVP consideration if the Saints can make the playoffs and potentially challenge the Buccaneers at the top of the NFC South. And while he’s an excellent long-shot bet at 66-1, he is our favorite pick to win the Comeback Player of the Year Award (+500).

Author

Marcus Mosher

Marcus Mosher is an NFL analyst at The Game Day, residing in Erie, PA. He covers the NFL from a betting and fantasy perspective, producing written and video content. Marcus currently hosts multiple football-related podcasts and is a managing editor at USA Today’s Sports Media Group covering the Las Vegas Raiders. He has previously worked at The Athletic and Bleacher Report.

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