There are several potential paths to winning the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award.
Players who win this prestigious award, voted on by the Associated Press, often overcome an obstacle to return to the pinnacle of the sport. That could be anything from serious injury to severe illness, or, more simply, rebounding spectacularly from a poor previous season.
In 2025, San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey was named NFL Comeback Player of the Year for an incredible campaign, which saw him produce more than 2,100 total yards and score 17 touchdowns after being limited to just four games in 2024 due to injury.
Ahead of the 2026 campaign, I’ll analyze the latest NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds and make my best bets to win the award this season.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award Odds 2026
All football odds used for these NFL Comeback Player of the Year predictions are current as of Tuesday, Aug. 11, and courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Patrick Mahomes (+185)
- Kyler Murray (+550)
- Jayden Daniels (+550)
- Aaron Donald (+750)
- Daniel Jones (+1300)
- Malik Nabers (+1900)
- Tucker Kraft (+2700)
- Nick Bosa (+3300)
- George Kittle (+3300)
- Micah Parsons (+3500)
- Cam Skattebo (+4000)
- Fred Warner (+4000)
All other players have odds of +4500 or longer to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award.
Who Will Win NFL Comeback Player of the Year?
Patrick Mahomes (+185)
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the betting favorite to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award, which makes plenty of sense to me.
The two-time NFL MVP suffered a torn ACL and LCL against the Los Angeles Chargers on December 14, but somehow appears to be on pace to play in Week 1 of the 2026 campaign.
Mahomes is also coming off one of the worst seasons of his career, having failed to lead the Chiefs to the playoffs for the first time as a starter and establishing career-low marks in completion percentage (62.7%) and passer rating (89.6).
Quarterbacks had won NFL Comeback Player of the Year seven straight times before McCaffrey broke the streak last year, so there’s a good chance Mahomes will take home the award if the three-time Super Bowl MVP returns to form and brings Kansas City back to the postseason.
Despite these odds being difficult to swallow, I’m backing Mahomes to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year as my NFL pick of the day.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year Contenders
Kyler Murray (+550)
If I were wandering past Mahomes on the odds board, I’d be tempted to take a chance on Kyler Murray, who was recently named the starting quarterback of the Minnesota Vikings after beating out second-year pro J.J. McCarthy.
The former No. 1 overall pick has the makings of an ideal redemption narrative, having struggled with the Arizona Cardinals to the point where the team released him in March despite being on the hook for a dead cap hit of approximately $55 million. He also played just five games last season due to a foot injury.
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Murray’s career could be resurrected in Minnesota by noted quarterback guru Kevin O’Connell, who worked wonders with Sam Darnold in 2024 but struggled to get similar results from McCarthy in his rookie campaign.
While Murray certainly provides more upside for the Vikings, I have significant concerns about his durability — he has missed significant time in three of the last four seasons — and his ability to consistently deliver the high-level play we saw more often early in his career.
Jayden Daniels (+550)
After winning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, Jayden Daniels endured an injury-hit sophomore season that saw him miss 10 games with multiple injuries.
While the Washington star could certainly soar to those 2024 highs, it won’t be easy to live up to expectations after leading the Commanders to a 12-5 record and an NFC Championship Game appearance in his rookie campaign.
To make matters more difficult, Daniels has already lost starting left tackle Laremy Tunsil to a torn triceps injury, which could keep him out for most of the season. That injury makes it more likely that Daniels deals with more injury issues this season, so I’m staying away at this price.
Aaron Donald (+750)
It’s not very often that one of the NFL’s best players comes out of retirement, so I can understand why oddsmakers have listed Aaron Donald as the fourth favorite for NFL Comeback Player of the Year.
However, it has yet to be confirmed that the Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle will actually return to the team after a two-season absence.
- See where the Rams sit in the latest Super Bowl odds.
While I understand the potential appeal of Donald joining a defensive line that now features reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Myles Garrett, I’d also be quite disappointed to bet on the three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year to win this award only for him to remain retired.
If Donald decides to return and this price is still available, I’d invest in him quickly before the price drops.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year Sleeper Pick
Geno Smith (+5000)
We’ve seen quarterbacks win NFL Comeback Player of the Year honors multiple times, so I don’t hate taking a flyer on Geno Smith at 50-1 odds.
Smith previously won the award in 2022 after reviving his career with the Seattle Seahawks. In his first season as a full-time starter in more than half a decade, Smith threw for 4,282 yards, 30 touchdowns, and led Seattle to a playoff appearance.
During that campaign, he famously uttered the phrase: “They wrote me off, I ain’t write back though." This season, he’ll try to silence the haters again with the team that drafted him: the New York Jets.
Smith is coming off a dreadful one-year stint in Las Vegas, where he threw 17 interceptions and 19 touchdown passes in 15 games. Not only that, but his former team in Seattle won the Super Bowl with the guy who replaced him: former New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold.
If Smith finds his 2022 form and helps New York snap the longest playoff drought in professional sports (15 years), he could overcome these longshot odds.
Previous AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year Winners
2025: Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
2024: Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
2023: Joe Flacco, QB, Cleveland Browns
2022: Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks
2021: Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
2020: Alex Smith, QB, Washington Commanders
2019: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans
2018: Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts
2017: Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
2016: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers
2015: Eric Berry, S, Kansas City Chiefs
2014: Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
2013: Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers
2012: Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos
2011: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
2010: Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
2009: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
2008: Chad Pennington, QB, Miami Dolphins
2007: Greg Ellis, DE, Dallas Cowboys
2006: Chad Pennington, QB, New York Jets
2005: Tedy Bruschi, LB, New England Patriots & Steve Smith Sr., WR, Carolina Panthers
2004: Drew Brees, QB, San Diego Chargers
2003: Jon Kitna, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
2002: Tommy Maddox, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
2001: Garrison Hearst, RB, San Francisco 49ers
2000: Joe Johnson, DE, New Orleans Saints
1999: Bryant Young, DT, San Francisco 49ers
1998: Doug Flutie, QB, Buffalo Bills
