NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds & Predictions

Posted: Jul 8, 2022Last updated: Jul 8, 2022

One award that doesn’t receive a ton of national attention is the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year award.

However, this award can be among the most profitable for bettors, as there is some major value to be had on most sportsbooks.

To help guide you in the NFL predictions series, here are the NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds for the 2022 season and our favorite bets to take home the trophy.

All NFL betting odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and are current as of Friday, June 24 at 11 a.m. ET.

NFL Comeback Player of the Year Futures Odds

Each of the last four years, a quarterback has taken home the award.

Joe Burrow is the most recent winner after leading the Bengals to the playoffs and eventually the Super Bowl. But who is the favorite to take home the award this season?

Here are the current odds on the top 10 favorites to win the Comeback Player of the Year Award:

  • Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans (+350)
  • Jameis Winston, QB, New Orleans Saints (+500)
  • Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants (+850)
  • Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints (+900)
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers (+1000)
  • Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (+1200)
  • Marcus Mariota, QB, Atlanta Falcons (+1200)
  • Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns (+1600)
  • J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens (+1600)
  • Chase Young, EDGE, Washington Commanders (+1600)

Derrick Henry is the favorite after missing the final nine games of the 2021 season with a foot injury. He was on pace to set a career-high in scrimmage yards per game before getting hurt. He did return for the playoffs, but he wasn’t quite the same player was saw earlier in the year.

If Henry can continue to post numbers comparable to what we’ve seen since the start of the 2018 season, he will certainly be in the conversation. But at +350, there are better bets on the board as a running back has not taken home the award since Willis McGahee in 2004.


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NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award Prediction

Jameis Winston, QB, New Orleans Saints (+500)

Wager: 1 Unit

The best bet on the board right now for the Comeback Player of the Year Award is none other than Jameis Winston. Coming off a torn ACL, Winston is healthy and will be the starting quarterback for the Saints again this season.

Winston was playing extremely well before his knee injury last year, leading the Saints to a 5-2 record. In those seven games, he accounted for 15 touchdowns while throwing only three interceptions.

What’s even more impressive is that he posted fantastic numbers without the help of Michael Thomas, who missed the entire 2021 season due to an ankle injury. With the Saints loading up on playmakers this offseason for Winston, he could be in for one of the best seasons of his career.

With Winston playing the quarterback position and being on a good team, it’s not a surprise that he has the second-best odds to take home the award. Even at +500, he is a fantastic bet right now before training camp begins and the hype rolls in for the Saints and Winston.

Best NFL Comeback Player of the Year Sleeper Bets

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens (+1200)

Wager: 1 Unit

J.K. Dobbins had a fantastic rookie season for the Ravens, totaling 925 yards on just 152 touches (6.1 yards per touch). He was expected to see an even bigger role during the 2021 season before suffering a knee injury in the team’s third preseason game.

Dobbins did not play last season, but he is healthy now and is expected to be ready for Week 1. The expectation is that he will be the lead back for the Ravens and that likely means he will see over 225 touches this season.

If Dobbins can continue to maintain his elite efficiency or close to it (6.0 yards per carry in 2020), he should easily eclipse 1,200 yards and is a decent bet to score 12 or more touchdowns. And if the Ravens fully lean into him being a workhorse back and give him 275+ touches, it wouldn’t be a shock if he led the NFL in rushing yards this season.

Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (+3000)

Wager: 1 Unit

Another running back to consider is Travis Etienne of the Jaguars. He was a first-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, but suffered a foot injury in the preseason that knocked him out for the entire year.

He is healthy now and is expected to be the full-time starter in Jacksonville. While the Jaguars might still struggle on offense, there is a decent chance that Etienne could total 1,500 yards from scrimmage and score double-digit touchdowns.

If that’s the case, he will certainly be in the conversation. He is a fantastic bet at 30-1 odds given his talent level and opportunity in the Jacksonville offense.

Carl Lawson, EDGE, New York Jets (+8000)

Wager: 1 Unit

Since 2000, only two defensive players have won the Comeback Player of the Year Award: Joe Johnson (2000, Saints) and Eric Berry (2015, Chiefs). Given that, it’s no surprise that most of the top players in terms of odds all play on offense.

However, Lawson isn’t a bad bet at 80-1 odds considering he is a proven pass rusher who missed the entire 2021 season due to a lower leg injury. When he’s on the field, he’s one of the better EDGE defenders in the NFL and he could instantly improve the Jets’ pass rush.

The last time a New York Jet recorded more than eight sacks in a season was in 2015 (Muhammad Wilkerson, 12). Don’t be surprised if Lawson does that this year and vaults himself into the conversation for Comeback Player of the Year.

Author

Marcus Mosher

Marcus Mosher is an NFL analyst at The Game Day, residing in Erie, PA. He covers the NFL from a betting and fantasy perspective, producing written and video content. Marcus currently hosts multiple football-related podcasts and is a managing editor at USA Today’s Sports Media Group covering the Las Vegas Raiders. He has previously worked at The Athletic and Bleacher Report.

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