There are several paths to winning the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award, and with the 2026 season approaching its halfway point, the leading contenders are starting to separate themselves from the pack.
Voted on by the Associated Press, the award typically recognizes players who have overcome significant adversity to return to a high level of performance. That could mean bouncing back from a serious injury or illness, or delivering a remarkable turnaround after a disappointing previous season.
In 2025, San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey earned the award after producing more than 2,100 total yards and 17 touchdowns. His impressive comeback followed an injury-plagued 2024 campaign in which he appeared in just four games.
As of November 4, the 2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year race is beginning to take shape. Below, I’ll break down the latest odds, evaluate the top contenders, and identify my favorite bets to win the award.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award Odds 2026
All football odds used for these NFL Comeback Player of the Year predictions are current as of Thursday, Nov. 12, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Patrick Mahomes (-125)
- Tank Dell (+350)
- Malik Nabers (+600)
- George Kittle (+950)
- Fred Warner (+950)
- Travis Hunter (+2000)
- Jayden Daniels (+2200)
- JJ McCarthy (+2200)
All other players have odds of +3000 or longer to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award.
Who Will Win NFL Comeback Player of the Year?
Patrick Mahomes (-125)
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes remains the betting favorite to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year, and it’s easy to understand why. The two-time NFL MVP has made an impressive return after tearing his ACL and LCL against the Los Angeles Chargers last December, an injury that initially raised questions about his availability for the start of the 2026 season.
Mahomes hasn’t missed a game, throwing for 1,795 yards, 12 touchdowns, and four interceptions through seven contests. The Chiefs started the season 5-0, showing significant improvement after finishing 6-11 and missing the playoffs in 2025. However, Kansas City has since dropped two straight games, including a disappointing 20-3 loss to Seattle.
Despite the recent struggles, Mahomes bounced back with one of his best performances of the year against Denver in Week 8. He completed 30 of 41 passes for 321 yards and three touchdowns, although the Chiefs squandered an 11-point fourth-quarter lead in a 28-24 defeat. Kansas City now sits at 5-2, trailing the Broncos in the AFC West.
Quarterbacks had won NFL Comeback Player of the Year seven consecutive times before Christian McCaffrey broke that streak in 2025. Mahomes has already made a compelling case by returning from a serious knee injury and helping Kansas City get back into playoff contention. The Chiefs’ recent losses are a concern, but there’s still plenty of time for them to turn things around.
Despite the short odds, I’m backing Mahomes to win Comeback Player of the Year as my NFL pick of the day. His return to form has been impressive, and I expect Kansas City to remain in the playoff race throughout the second half of the season.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year Contenders
Malik Nabers (+600)
New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers has made a strong case for NFL Comeback Player of the Year after missing most of the 2025 season with a torn ACL. The former first-round pick has returned to form in 2026, catching 48 passes for 605 yards and two touchdowns through seven games.
What’s particularly encouraging is how much better Nabers has looked after a slow start. He’s surpassed 100 receiving yards in four consecutive games, including a season-high 165 yards against the Saints in Week 6. He’s averaging 126.8 receiving yards over that stretch, showing the explosiveness that made him one of the NFL’s most exciting young receivers.
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Nabers also has a compelling comeback narrative after being limited to four games last season. He caught 109 passes for 1,204 yards as a rookie in 2024, so we’ve already seen what he’s capable of when healthy. If he continues producing at this level, he could finish among the league leaders in receiving yards.
At +380, Nabers is an appealing alternative to Patrick Mahomes. However, I’d like to see him find the end zone more consistently before backing him at this price. His receiving production has been excellent, but two touchdowns through seven games could hurt his chances against other contenders.
Travis Hunter (+2000)
Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Travis Hunter is another intriguing candidate after an injury-shortened rookie season. The former No. 2 overall pick appeared in just seven games in 2025, but he’s been a much bigger factor defensively this year, helping Jacksonville emerge as one of the AFC’s stronger teams.
Hunter has recorded 26 tackles, six passes defended, and two interceptions through seven games. He’s already doubled his rookie tackle total and has shown considerable improvement in coverage. The Jaguars have also started 5-2, giving Hunter an opportunity to receive more recognition if their strong season continues.
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However, Hunter’s offensive involvement has declined considerably. After catching 28 passes for 298 yards and a touchdown as a rookie, he’s managed just six receptions for 76 yards and one score this season. Jacksonville has primarily used him at cornerback, limiting the two-way production that made him such a fascinating prospect.
That’s my biggest concern with backing Hunter at +1000. He’s developing into an impact defensive player, but winning Comeback Player of the Year could be difficult without more eye-catching statistics. I prefer Nabers at the shorter price, although Hunter could become more interesting if his interception total continues to climb.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year Sleeper Pick
Jayden Daniels (+2200)
Jayden Daniels is an intriguing longshot for NFL Comeback Player of the Year after injuries limited him to just seven games in 2025. We saw how talented the Washington Commanders quarterback was during his Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign in 2024, when he threw for 3,568 yards and rushed for another 891.
Daniels has shown flashes of that form this season, throwing for 976 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions in five games. He’s also rushed for 236 yards and two scores, including a 103-yard rushing performance against the Giants.
However, durability remains a concern. Daniels has already missed three games this season, while Washington has struggled to find consistency. The Commanders did just beat the Eagles 27-10, giving them some hope of turning things around.
At +1500, Daniels offers upside if he can stay healthy and lead Washington on a second-half surge. However, I’d need to see more consistency from the Commanders before investing in this longshot.
Previous AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year Winners
2025: Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
2024: Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
2023: Joe Flacco, QB, Cleveland Browns
2022: Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks
2021: Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
2020: Alex Smith, QB, Washington Commanders
2019: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans
2018: Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts
2017: Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
2016: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers
2015: Eric Berry, S, Kansas City Chiefs
2014: Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
2013: Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers
2012: Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos
2011: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
2010: Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
2009: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
2008: Chad Pennington, QB, Miami Dolphins
2007: Greg Ellis, DE, Dallas Cowboys
2006: Chad Pennington, QB, New York Jets
2005: Tedy Bruschi, LB, New England Patriots & Steve Smith Sr., WR, Carolina Panthers
2004: Drew Brees, QB, San Diego Chargers
2003: Jon Kitna, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
2002: Tommy Maddox, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
2001: Garrison Hearst, RB, San Francisco 49ers
2000: Joe Johnson, DE, New Orleans Saints
1999: Bryant Young, DT, San Francisco 49ers
1998: Doug Flutie, QB, Buffalo Bills
