One of the most difficult awards to bet on is the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year.
That is because this award usually goes to the most outstanding non-quarterback, whereas the NFL MVP has historically been a quarterback-centric award.
However, we’ve recently seen some quarterbacks take home this award in addition to MVP honors (Patrick Mahomes in 2018, Matt Ryan in 2016, Cam Newton in 2015, etc.). It’s a tough award to forecast, but this is one that a skill position player can actually win.
To help guide you in our NFL predictions series, here are our Offensive Player of the Year predictions and betting tips.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award Odds
Cooper Kupp took home the Offensive Player of the Year award last season after catching 145 passes for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. He is the favorite to win the award again, but is he a good value bet?
All NFL odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and are current as of Friday, July 1, 2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
- Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams (+800)
- Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts (+800)
- Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans (+1100)
- Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers (+1100)
- Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (+1200)
- Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (+1600)
- Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers (+1800)
- Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+1800)
- Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns (+1800)
- Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (+2000)
- Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns (+2000)
- Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings (+2000)
Considering how frequently quarterbacks do win the Offensive Player of the Year award, it’s shocking that we don’t have a passer with lower odds.
Josh Allen, the NFL MVP favorite, is the first quarterback to appear at (+1600). He’s followed closely by Justin Herbert (+2000), who has similar odds to win the MVP award.
But, these odds are dominated by running backs and wide receivers as they have taken home the award in four of the last five seasons.
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NFL Offensive Player of the Year Prediction
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings (+2000)
Wager: 1 Unit
If it wasn’t for Kupp, Justin Jefferson would have had an excellent chance at taking home the award last season. In his second year in the NFL, Jefferson caught 108 passes for 1,616 yards and 10 touchdowns.
He did all of that in a conservative, run-first offense that didn’t always use him to the best of his abilities. But under new head coach Kevin O’Connell, the Vikings are expected to use Jefferson in a Kupp-like role.
Look for the Vikings to use Jefferson more out of the slot and the backfield to get him additional easy touches. He should be a lock to go over 100 catches again this season and has a chance to have much more than that. Jefferson just turned 23 and is primed for a monster season in Minnesota.
Best NFL Offensive Player of the Year Sleeper Bets
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (+3000)
Wager: 1 Unit
Ja’Marr Chase had one of the best rookie seasons we’ve seen at wide receiver since Randy Moss. He caught 81 passes for the Bengals, totaled nearly 1,500 yards, and scored 13 touchdowns. That was all despite not playing any football the previous year after sitting out his final collegiate season.
- Check out our NFL Defensive Player of the Year Predictions
Entering Year 2, Chase will play with a fully healthy Joe Burrow and is expected to shoulder even more of the offensive load. If the Bengals can find more ways to utilize him down the field, he could easily lead the NFL in receiving yards and touchdowns.
Chase is a special player and someone worth betting on at 30-1 to take home this award.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs (+3000)
Wager: 1 Unit
Travis Kelce is coming off his sixth-straight 1,000-yard season and he scored nine touchdowns in 2021 for the Chiefs. But with Tyreek Hill off to Miami, Kelce is going to become an even bigger part of the offense.
Since Patrick Mahomes became the starter in Kansas City, Kelce has averaged 141 targets per season. That number could easily increase to 160 or maybe even 170 this season considering all of the changes the Chiefs have made on offense.
If Kelce can reach 1,400 yards and lead the NFL in touchdown receptions, he’ll be in consideration for this award. And if the Chiefs wind up being one of the top seeds in the AFC, you know he’ll be among the favorites to win Offensive Player of the Year.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys (+4000)
Wager: 1 Unit
The Dallas Cowboys have lost a ton of offensive firepower this offseason. Amari Cooper was traded and Cedrick Wilson signed a big deal with Miami. Together, they combined for 165 targets last season. Plus, Michael Gallup (62 targets) is expected to miss at least the first month of the season as he recovers from his torn ACL.
That’s all to say that CeeDee Lamb could see a huge workload this year as the No. 1 receiver for the Cowboys. He’s already coming off a nice season in which he totaled nearly 1,200 yards from scrimmage.
But the Cowboys need him to do much more. At this point, it would be a shock if Lamb didn’t average at least 10 targets a game, and look for Dallas to get him touches from the backfield ala Deebo Samuel.
At 40-1, Lamb is a great bet to win the Offensive Player of the Year award as he could easily lead the league in targets, yards, and receptions this season.