NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds & Predictions

Sam WagmanSports Content Editor
Last Updated: Jul 27, 2023

One of the most difficult awards to bet on is the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year.

That is because this award usually goes to the most outstanding statistically-inclined non-quarterback, whereas the NFL MVP has historically been a quarterback-centric award.

However, we’ve recently seen some quarterbacks take home this award in addition to MVP honors (Patrick Mahomes in 2018, Matt Ryan in 2016, Cam Newton in 2015, etc.). It’s a tough award to forecast, but this is one that a skill position player can actually win.

To help guide you in our NFL predictions series, here are our Offensive Player of the Year predictions and betting tips.

NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award Odds

All NFL odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and are current as of Wednesday, June 14, 2023, at 12:30 p.m. ET.

  • Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings (+1000)
  • Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (+1000)
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers (+1400)
  • Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (+1800)
  • Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (+2000)
  • Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears (+2000)
  • Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins (+2000)
  • Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams (+2200)
  • Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns (+2200)
  • Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (+2200)
  • Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (+2200)
  • Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts (+2200)
  • Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills (+2200)

Considering how frequently quarterbacks win the Offensive Player of the Year award, it’s shocking that we don’t have a passer with lower odds.

Justin Fields, the NFL’s rushing yards leader among quarterbacks last season, is the first quarterback to appear at (+2000). He’s followed closely by Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson (+2200), who have similar profiles to Fields but better passing resumes thus far in their careers.

These odds are dominated by running backs and wide receivers, though, as they have taken home the award in four of the last five seasons.

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Read Chris Wassel’s Caesars Sportsbook review for more insight and get your welcome bonus below, or continue reading this analysis for our best Offensive Player of the Year tipster picks.

NFL Offensive Player of the Year Prediction

Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (+1000)

Wager: 1 Unit

Ja’Marr Chase is a certified stud who plays for the most potent passing offense in the NFL. If he had stayed fully healthy last year, he and Jefferson would have been battling it out for this award all season.

In 13 games last year, he averaged 10.3 targets per game. When averaged out to a full 17-game season, that totals 175.2 targets. That’s nine fewer than Jefferson’s total last season, but Chase can sometimes act as more of a downfield threat than Jefferson.

With a contract extension sure to be looming on the horizon for Chase as he enters his third NFL season, look for him to be extra motivated to have an incredible season this year.

Best NFL Offensive Player of the Year Sleeper Bets

Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears (+2000)

Wager: 1 Unit

Fields just put up 1,143 rushing yards last season, which ranked second all-time behind Lamar Jackson’s record-setting 2019 season, where he totaled 1,206 yards. The problem was that the Bears were not interested in passing the ball that much, ranking at the bottom of the NFL in pass attempts by a healthy amount.

This year, however, the Bears looked to upgrade things. They drafted Darnell Wright to play right tackle in the NFL Draft, acquired D.J. Moore in the draft pick trade with the Carolina Panthers, get Darnell Mooney back healthy, and maybe Chase Claypool steps up in his second year with the team.

The Bears’ investment in Fields is very apparent, and there is definitely some value to be had betting on Fields to take home the OPOY this season.

Deshaun Watson (+4500)

Wager: 1 Unit

Watson signed the biggest guaranteed money contract in history last offseason, but it didn’t help him put up massive numbers, as he struggled after coming back from his suspension and looked rusty all-around. However, things could be looking up this season.

The Haslam’s invested in their offense, bringing in wide receivers Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman through a trade and the draft. We could see a resurgence from Watson this season between them and the existing cadre of weapons like Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and Donovan Peoples-Jones.

Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants (+3000)

Wager: 1 Unit

Barkley is the ultimate possibility here, as he has a few possible outcomes for this season. Given that the team has placed the franchise tag on him (which he did not like) and doesn’t seem intent on giving him a long-term contract, he may receive the Josh Jacobs treatment this season.

In this first outcome, he could rush for an outlandish amount of rushing yards while simultaneously being “run into the ground", as one could say about Jacobs’ 2022 season. He could also choose to hold out, asserting his leverage.

I believe he plays, and the Giants play the card of “he won’t be here in 2024", so they use him as much as possible. While this could be detrimental to Barkley’s future, he has a strong chance to win OPOY in this scenario.

NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award History

List of Associated Press NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award Winners

1972Larry BrownRBWashington Redskins
1973O. J. SimpsonRBBuffalo Bills
1974Ken StablerQBOakland Raiders
1975Fran TarkentonQBMinnesota Vikings
1976Bert JonesQBBaltimore Colts
1977Walter PaytonRBChicago Bears
1978Earl CampbellRBHouston Oilers
1979Earl CampbellRBHouston Oilers
1980Earl CampbellRBHouston Oilers
1981Ken AndersonQBCincinnati Bengals
1982Dan FoutsQBSan Diego Chargers
1983Joe TheismannQBWashington Redskins
1984Dan MarinoQBMiami Dolphins
1985Marcus AllenRBLos Angeles Raiders
1986Eric DickersonRBLos Angeles Rams
1987Jerry RiceWRSan Francisco 49ers
1988Roger CraigRBSan Francisco 49ers
1989Joe MontanaQBSan Francisco 49ers
1990Warren MoonQBHouston Oilers
1991Thurman ThomasRBBuffalo Bills
1992Steve YoungQBSan Francisco 49ers
1993Jerry RiceWRSan Francisco 49ers
1994Barry SandersRBDetroit Lions
1995Brett FavreQBGreen Bay Packers
1996Terrell DavisRBDenver Broncos
1997Barry SandersRBDetroit Lions
1998Terrell DavisRBDenver Broncos
1999Marshall FaulkRBSt. Louis Rams
2000Marshall FaulkRBSt. Louis Rams
2001Marshall FaulkRBSt. Louis Rams
2002Priest HolmesRBKansas City Chiefs
2003Jamal LewisRBBaltimore Ravens
2004Peyton ManningQBIndianapolis Colts
2005Shaun AlexanderRBSeattle Seahawks
2006LaDainian TomlinsonRBSan Diego Chargers
2007Tom BradyQBNew England Patriots
2008Drew BreesQBNew Orleans Saints
2009Chris JohnsonRBTennessee Titans
2010Tom BradyQBNew England Patriots
2011Drew BreesQBNew Orleans Saints
2012Adrian PetersonRBMinnesota Vikings
2013Peyton ManningQBDenver Broncos
2014DeMarco MurrayRBDallas Cowboys
2015Cam NewtonQBCarolina Panthers
2016Matt RyanQBAtlanta Falcons
2017Todd GurleyRBLos Angeles Rams
2018Patrick MahomesQBKansas City Chiefs
2019Michael ThomasWRNew Orleans Saints
2020Derrick HenryRBTennessee Titans
2021Cooper KuppWRLos Angeles Rams
2022Justin JeffersonWRMinnesota Vikings

Winners by position

  • Running back (26)
  • Quarterback (20)
  • Wide receiver (5)
  • Tight end (0)

Who votes for the NFL Offensive Player of the Year?

Three organizations give out NFL Offensive Player of the Year awards: the Associated Press, Pro Football Writers of America, and The Sporting News. The Associated Press’s award for the most outstanding offensive player is the award given out at the official NFL Honors ceremony. Sportswriters are selected by the AP to vote each year.

Who has won multiple NFL Offensive Player of the Year awards?

Eight players have won NFL OPOY more than once. Earl Campbell (1978, 1979, 1980) and Marshall Faulk (1999, 2000, 2001) both won three times and in consecutive years. Jerry Rice (1987, 1993), Barry Sanders (1994, 1997), Terrell Davis (1996, 1998), Tom Brady (2007, 2010), Drew Brees (2008, 2011), and Peyton Manning (2004, 2013) each won the award twice.


Sam Wagman

Sam is the Sports Content Editor for The Game Day. He has been in the sports media industry for 3 years, with stints at VegasInsider, Footballguys, and Fantasy Points. Sam specializes in fantasy football content creation and strategy as well as sports betting content strategy with an NFL and PGA focus. Originally from Philadelphia, he enjoys all Philly sports despite now living in Florida. He enjoys playing tennis, pickleball, and golf -- while constantly struggling to break 80 on the course.

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