Patrick Mahomes continued to show why he’s clearly the best quarterback in the NFL in the Chiefs’ win over the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game.
Despite playing through a high ankle sprain, Mahomes was able to complete more than 67 percent of his passes for 326 yards and two touchdowns.
He’s in for another tough test against the Eagles, who have an elite pass defense.
With that in mind, let’s dive into the best Patrick Mahomes prop bets for Super Bowl 57.
All Super Bowl odds used in these props are current as of Wednesday, Feb. 8, at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Patrick Mahomes Prop Pick of the Day
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Patrick Mahomes Rush Yards Prop
Patrick Mahomes: Under 18.5 Rush Yards (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Mahomes averaged 21.1 rushing yards per game during the regular season. However, it’s clear that his high ankle sprain has affected his mobility.
In the AFC Championship Game, Mahomes was limited to only eight yards on three carries, one of which was a five-yard run on the last play of the game.
While an extra week of rest could help his mobility, that’s already baked into the number at 18.5, since it’s relatively close to his season average.
I believe this is too high of a bar to clear considering the lingering injury.
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Patrick Mahomes Pass Yards Prop
Patrick Mahomes: Over 294.5 Pass Yards (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Eagles’ defense ranks first in Pass DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. However, we’ve got a couple of angles with the Over here.
For one, Mahomes’ limited mobility could keep him in the pocket, resulting in more pass attempts, and providing more opportunities to rack up yardage.
There’s also a chance that the Chiefs are playing from behind in this game, which would bode well for passing volume.
Add in the fact that Mahomes averaged 308.8 passing yards per game this year and you can see why the Over looks so appealing.
Patrick Mahomes Head-to-Head Prop
Patrick Mahomes: -0.5 Pass TD vs Jalen Hurts (-125) at DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Mahomes put up 41 passing touchdowns during the regular season, while Hurts had 22. The Eagles prefer to run the ball in the red zone, evidenced by Hurts and Miles Sanders combining for 24 rushing touchdowns.
We’ve even seen them give some red zone touches to Kenneth Gainwell (four touchdowns) throughout the year.
Each quarterback has a touchdown prop of 1.5, with Mahomes juiced to the Over at -220 odds (68.8% implied probability), while Hurts has the Under favored at -120 (54.5% implied probability).
In other words, it’s much more likely that Mahomes throws for two or more touchdowns. This gives us great value at -125 odds in this head-to-head prop.