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Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl Prop Bets

Frank AmmiranteSenior Sports Writer
@FAmmiranteTFJ
Last Updated: Feb 12, 2023

Patrick Mahomes continued to show why he’s clearly the best quarterback in the NFL in the Chiefs’ win over the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game.

Despite playing through a high ankle sprain, Mahomes was able to complete more than 67 percent of his passes for 326 yards and two touchdowns.

He’s in for another tough test against the Eagles, who have an elite pass defense.

With that in mind, let’s dive into the best Patrick Mahomes prop bets for Super Bowl 57.

All Super Bowl odds used in these props are current as of Wednesday, Feb. 8, at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Patrick Mahomes Prop Pick of the Day

Read more on this Patrick Mahomes player prop below.

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Patrick Mahomes Rush Yards Prop

Patrick Mahomes: Under 18.5 Rush Yards (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Mahomes averaged 21.1 rushing yards per game during the regular season. However, it’s clear that his high ankle sprain has affected his mobility.

In the AFC Championship Game, Mahomes was limited to only eight yards on three carries, one of which was a five-yard run on the last play of the game.

While an extra week of rest could help his mobility, that’s already baked into the number at 18.5, since it’s relatively close to his season average.

I believe this is too high of a bar to clear considering the lingering injury.


Find more Super Bowl betting plays


Patrick Mahomes Pass Yards Prop

Patrick Mahomes: Over 294.5 Pass Yards (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Eagles’ defense ranks first in Pass DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. However, we’ve got a couple of angles with the Over here.

For one, Mahomes’ limited mobility could keep him in the pocket, resulting in more pass attempts, and providing more opportunities to rack up yardage.

There’s also a chance that the Chiefs are playing from behind in this game, which would bode well for passing volume.

Add in the fact that Mahomes averaged 308.8 passing yards per game this year and you can see why the Over looks so appealing.

Patrick Mahomes Head-to-Head Prop

Patrick Mahomes: -0.5 Pass TD vs Jalen Hurts (-125) at DraftKings Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Mahomes put up 41 passing touchdowns during the regular season, while Hurts had 22. The Eagles prefer to run the ball in the red zone, evidenced by Hurts and Miles Sanders combining for 24 rushing touchdowns.

We’ve even seen them give some red zone touches to Kenneth Gainwell (four touchdowns) throughout the year.

Each quarterback has a touchdown prop of 1.5, with Mahomes juiced to the Over at -220 odds (68.8% implied probability), while Hurts has the Under favored at -120 (54.5% implied probability).

In other words, it’s much more likely that Mahomes throws for two or more touchdowns. This gives us great value at -125 odds in this head-to-head prop.

Author

Frank Ammirante

Frank Ammirante is a Senior Sports Writer at The Game Day. Previously, he wrote for 4for4 Football and RotoBaller. Frank is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writer's Association while maintaining an active presence within the community. He has competed in industry contests like the Scott Fish Bowl, The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, and more. Frank will be making his debut in Tout Wars this year. He's got a diverse sporting background, but specializes in football and baseball.

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