Josh Allen had arguably the most impressive regular season of his career in 2024, accounting for over 4,250 total yards and 40 total touchdowns while turning the ball over just six times.
He has led Buffalo to home playoff wins over Denver and Baltimore, setting up an AFC Championship Game with the Kansas City Chiefs, the team responsible for eliminating the Bills from the postseason three of the past four years.
Will Allen finally get over the hump and lead his team to its first Super Bowl appearance since the early 1990s?
Let’s examine my favorite Josh Allen props for Sunday’s AFC title game.
All NFL odds used for these Josh Allen prop bets are current as of Friday, Jan. 24, at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Josh Allen Rushing Attempts Prop
Josh Allen: Over 9.5 Rushing Attempts (-104)
If the first two games of Buffalo’s playoff run are any indication, the Bills will try to impose their will on the ground against Kansas City.
Let’s look at how OC Joe Brady has called plays so far this postseason:
- 44 Runs, 26 Passes vs Denver
- 36 Runs, 22 Passes vs Baltimore
That 62% run rate in the Divisional Round is particularly noteworthy since the Bills made inroads on the ground against a Ravens defense that ranked No. 1 in rush yards allowed per attempt (3.6) during the regular season.
While Kansas City’s defense has some vulnerabilities in the secondary, I don’t expect Brady to change his offensive philosophy in the biggest game of the season. That means Allen, who had eight rush attempts against Denver and 10 against Baltimore, and his running backs should get plenty of action.
Historically, Allen has called his own number more against the Chiefs than any other opponent. He has double-digit rushing attempts in six consecutive head-to-head meetings since 2021, including two postseason losses.
The Bills are 1.5-point underdogs in this matchup, so it’s not all that unlikely he gets a few celebratory kneel-downs that could add to this total if needed. Back Allen to go Over this rushing attempts prop as one of your best NFL bets today.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Josh Allen Touchdown Prop
Josh Allen: Anytime TD (-115)
We’ve already discussed that Buffalo will run the ball early and often in this matchup. Should the Bills get inside the five-yard line, who do you think they’re going to trust in that high-leverage situation?
The only correct answer to that question is Allen.
- Get ready for the AFC Championship Game with our Bills vs Chiefs prediction.
The 6-foot-5, 237-pound quarterback rushed for 12 touchdowns during the regular season and scored twice from in close last week against Baltimore. He has found the end zone at least once in seven of his previous 10 games, including the Week 11 victory over Kansas City.
These odds are more than fair for Allen to keep that scoring run going on Sunday.