After a tight win against the Dolphins in the wild-card round, Josh Allen and the Bills are looking to beat the Bengals this weekend.
As a mobile quarterback, you have to look at both his rushing and passing usage when it comes to analyzing Allen’s player props. Will he find time for random long runs against Cincinnati? Will he air it out? These are the questions that will be answered in Sunday’s epic matchup.
Below, I focus on two Josh Allen player props I like for the divisional round.
All NFL Divisional Round odds used in these props are current as of Friday, Jan. 20, at 11 a.m. ET.
Josh Allen Prop Pick of the Day
Read more on this Josh Allen player prop below.
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Josh Allen Rushing Attempts Prop
Josh Allen: Under 8.5 Rush Attempts (-140) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
When you think of Josh Allen, you think of him running around a lot. This weekend, I don’t think that perception will match the reality.
In half of Allen’s regular-season games in 2022, he had fewer than 8.5 rushing attempts. Last weekend against the Dolphins, Allen rushed only four times.
We might see Allen take off on designed runs in goal-line and short-yardage situations, but most of his runs will probably come off script. With the Bills likely to rely on a pass-heavy game plan, I believe that we won’t see much running from Allen on Sunday.
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Josh Allen Passing Attempts Prop
Josh Allen: Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Surprisingly, there isn’t a strong correlation between Allen’s passing and rushing attempts. A moderate correlation that exists is that Allen has more passing attempts in close games.
I expect a close game between Buffalo and Cincinnati, which is why Allen should have more than 35.5 passing attempts.
In nine of his 16 games during the regular season, Allen had fewer than 35.5 passing attempts. What should be noted is that the Bills were heavy favorites in most of those games. In a rare close game for the Bills, Allen should go over his passing attempts total.
Last week against Miami, Allen had 39 pass attempts. In a regular-season showdown with the Chiefs, Allen had 40 attempts. This prop will be a nail biter that comes down to the fourth quarter, but I like Allen to go Over 35.5 passing attempts.