Chiefs vs Bills Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Jan 18, 2024

Of the four NFL divisional matchups, most will be waiting for the final game on Sunday evening.

Despite a bleak outlook following Week 13’s overtime loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Buffalo Bills have won six in a row and earned the right to host the defending champions in Orchard Park.

The Chiefs looked vulnerable mid-year, too, but Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes dispelled all concerns with a 26-7 drubbing of the Miami Dolphins in the wild-card round.

The stage is set, and Buffalo will look to slay their demons and get to the AFC Championship game once more.

Chiefs vs Bills Odds

NFL odds used for this Kansas City vs Buffalo preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Jan. 17 at 8 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Bills (-142) • Chiefs (+120)
  • Spread: Bills -2.5 (-120) • Chiefs +2.5 (+100)
  • Total Points: Over 45 (-112) • Under 45 (-108)
  • Implied Score: Bills 24, Chiefs 21

Chiefs vs Bills Predictions

Score Pick: Chiefs 27, Bills 24

Both offenses have a distinct flaw. For the Chiefs, it’s missed opportunities from dropped passes. For the Bills, it’s turnovers, especially in the opposing red zone.

All-in-all, those flaws cancel each other out, and two generational quarterbacks lead offenses that are mostly balanced. But Reid has a slight coaching edge in the offensive play-calling category.

Where the biggest discrepancy lies is on the other side of the ball.

Steve Spagnuolo has a young, relatively nameless KC defensive unit playing lights out. The Bills, however, have a rotating door of “next man up” names because of constant injuries, especially at the linebacker position.

Based on what we’ve seen from Tyler Bass of late, and considering the Bills punter just pulled a muscle in the wild-card round, the Chiefs have to get the special teams edge as well.

So while the script and the home-field advantage lean towards Buffalo, Kansas City should have just enough edges in real facets of the game on all sides of the ball to pull off a hard-nosed victory in one of the toughest road environments in the league. Bass missing a long kick at the horn seems all too likely.

Chiefs vs Bills Best Bets & Props

Chiefs (+120)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

The Chiefs on the moneyline has to be my NFL bet of the day.

The game against the Dolphins answered every question we could have had about the Chiefs coming into the playoffs.

Rashee Rice is emerging as that secondary receiving weapon that Mahomes desperately needed, Isiah Pacheco is becoming a top back in this league, and the Chiefs defense is peaking at the perfect time.

The Bills have been hotter than anyone over the last month-and-a-half, but they also have shown plenty of weaknesses along the way.

If Josh Allen turns the ball over enough to keep the Chiefs in the game despite the adrenaline that Highmark Stadium will surely provide, Reid and Mahomes should get it done late.

Josh Allen Rush Attempts Over 9.5 (+105)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

When games are close, and especially when the Bills are trailing, Allen takes matters into his own hands.

Whether it’s a designed power run, a scramble off a play-action fake, or a tush push on 4th-and-1, Allen won’t hesitate to carry the rock when his team needs a play most.

Allen had 15 carries in his comeback effort at Miami in the division-clinching Week 18 matchup. Take away his two kneels at the end and he’s still at 13 for the game.

Don’t let the eight carries last week fool you; when the game is close, No. 17 will run.

Chiefs 2Q +0.5 (-122)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Let the energy in Orchard Park start to dwindle a little bit, let coach Reid make some early adjustments, and let Mahomes get settled in. The result? The Chiefs should have a great second quarter.

We only have to pay minimal juice here, and all we’re asking for is the Chiefs to not lose ground in the second quarter.

Reid has proved to be a great “middle eight” coach in the past, and the better special teams unit should help KC prevail before the end of the half.

Chiefs vs Bills Same-Game Parlay

Chiefs vs Bills SGP (+280)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

  • Chiefs +3.5 (-138)
  • Over 39.5 (-246)
  • Chiefs Last to Score (-105)

With two balanced offenses and the Bills getting that pivotal home-field advantage, this game should remain a one-possession affair throughout.

As far as the total goes, Allen’s legs should provide necessary offensive sparks, and Reid’s play-calling against an injury-burdened defense should lead to some big plays.

In the end, both teams should reach the 20s, and the Chiefs will use their in-game adjustments to pull ahead in the third quarter.

Allen should rally his troops, but the special teams edge and Mahomes’ clutch gene should allow Kansas City to salt this one away late.

The -105 prop at the end makes this a risky endeavor. The other two numbers won’t provide much of a sweat, so a half-unit on the Chiefs to play from ahead and score one last time or get that final stop appears to have some value at nearly 3/1 odds.


John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

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