NFL

Spread

Bills vs Chiefs Predictions & Odds

Frank AmmiranteFantasy Sports & Betting Writer
Posted: Oct 16, 2022Last updated: Oct 17, 2022

We’ve got a clash of the titans with the Buffalo Bills traveling to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. These are two of the best teams in football, so we can expect a showdown of epic proportions.

Both teams are 4-1 with quarterbacks Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes continuing to play at a high level. It will be interesting to see if the Bills can avenge last season’s wild playoff loss in the AFC divisional round.

Let’s take a look at the Buffalo vs Kansas City betting tips for this Week 6 matchup.

Bills vs Chiefs Odds

The Bills are three-point favorites at most sportsbooks as of this writing, which is a bit surprising because they’re on the road at Arrowhead, which is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. The 53.5-point total is a fair number considering how prolific both of these offenses can be.

Take a look at the best Bills odds and Chiefs odds for the 2022 NFL season.

Bills vs Chiefs Implied Totals

Bills 28.25, Chiefs 25.25

Bookmakers project Buffalo to narrowly edge out Kansas City in a high-scoring game. The Bills have the edge on defense, which could be the difference in this matchup.

Bills vs Chiefs Pick of the Day

Read more on this Bills vs Chiefs bet below.

Bills vs Chiefs Prediction

Bills 31, Chiefs 27

According to Football Outsiders, the Bills and Chiefs each have ranked well in Adjusted Sack Rate, with Buffalo coming in at 8.6% (seventh) and Kansas City at 7.8% (10th). They’ve also excelled in pass protection, each tied for the eighth-best Adjusted Sack Rate. There’s not much of an edge on either side here.

We see an advantage with pass defense here, as the Bills have been strong, ranking sixth in Pass DVOA. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 6.14 yards per attempt against them, which is the sixth-lowest mark in the NFL. They could have enough on defense to slow down Mahomes.

On the other side, the Chiefs rank 19th in Pass DVOA, giving up 6.77 yards per attempt (10th). We saw Davante Adams burn them downfield in Kansas City’s close win over the Raiders this past Monday night. This secondary could have their hands full against Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.

Buffalo will look to avenge last year’s playoff loss to the Chiefs. This is a statement game for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. It’s also a game where Kansas City could really feel the loss of Tyreek Hill.

Bills vs Chiefs Bet Tips

Here are some Bills vs Chiefs betting trends to consider before placing your bets:

  • The Bills are 3-1-1 against the spread and Unders are 4-1 in their games.
  • Kansas City has gone 2-3 ATS with Overs at 3-2.
  • Buffalo has the edge in pass defense, which could impact the outcome of this game.
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster has been underwhelming in replacing Hill at wideout.
  • Facing a tough pass defense, the absence of Hill can be really felt here.

Bills vs Chiefs Best Bets

Under 53.5 Total Points (-105) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Bills’ games have gone Under the number in four of five this season, and they’ve been able to slow down high-octane offenses like the Ravens and Dolphins. We could see the same against Kansas City. Look at how the Chiefs struggled against the Colts two weeks ago.

There’s a good chance that it’ll be a similar result against the Bills, so we’ll bet on the Under here.

Before placing this bet, get the best Chiefs promo codes.

Bills -2.5 (-118) at FanDuel Sportsbook

This spread tells you everything you need to know about what oddsmakers think here. The Bills are considered the better team, coming in as road favorites. The market thinks they have a significant advantage.

The Bills have the pieces in place on defense to slow down Mahomes, and they won’t have to deal with Hill this time around.

Before placing this bet, get the best Bills promo codes.

Author

Frank Ammirante

Before joining The Game Day, Frank spent three years in the fantasy sports and betting industry, writing for websites like RotoBaller and 4for4football. Frank is an active member of the fantasy baseball and fantasy football community, participating in high-stakes leagues like NFBC/NFFC as well as industry competitions like Scott Fish Bowl, RazzBowl, and TGFBI. Frank is a member of the FSWA and IBWAA. Give him a shout to talk fantasy sports and sports betting.

Related articles

Loading...
Create Betslip