The opening game of the divisional round will see the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs host the Jacksonville Jaguars at GEHA Field on Saturday, Jan. 21.
With a win, Kansas City would advance to play in its fifth consecutive AFC title game, a sign of the consistent excellence produced by the combination of quarterback Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid.
Still, the hosts will be wary of the Jaguars, who pulled off an improbable come-from-behind victory in the wild-card round, erasing a 27-point deficit to defeat the Los Angeles Chargers, 31-30.
Who will make the difference in this game? Let’s dig into our favorite Jacksonville vs Kansas City props for this divisional-round showdown.
Before reading John Arlia’s picks, toggle with the widget below for our full list of NFL Divisional Round player props:
Jaguars vs Chiefs Player Props
Jerick McKinnon: Anytime TD (+117) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
If you won your fantasy football league this season, there’s a decent chance a late-season surge from Jerick McKinnon was the reason why.
Despite largely featuring solely as a pass-catching running back, McKinnon found the end zone in each of Kansas City’s final six games, compiling nine touchdowns over that span.
The veteran running back led the Chiefs in red-zone opportunities this season (36) and given his late-season efficiency, I would be surprised if he isn’t preferred to rookie Isiah Pacheco in those high-leverage situations.
I’m expecting Kansas City to win this game and put up 30-plus points, so getting McKinnon to score at plus-money seems like a steal.
Travis Kelce: Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
This number simply isn’t set high enough.
Travis Kelce has always been Mahomes’ safety blanket over the middle of the field, but he truly moved into the No. 1 receiving role after the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill to Miami over the offseason.
Kelce went Over this number in nine games during the regular season, including a six-catch, 81-yard performance against the Jaguars in Week 10.
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However, Kelce traditionally saves his best outings for the postseason. The veteran tight end has recorded 95-plus receiving yards in each of Kansas City’s last six playoff games, going over the 100-yard mark on four of those occasions.
He’ll get the chance to exploit a Jacksonville defense that ranked 30th in DVOA against the pass during the regular season and was amongst the worst at guarding tight ends. The Jaguars just allowed Chargers tight end Gerald Everett to lead his team in receiving (6-109-1) in the wild-card game.
I would be shocked if Kelce doesn’t go Over this number on Saturday afternoon.
Jaguars vs Chiefs Prop Bets
Chiefs: Win by 7-12 Points (+360) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Chiefs haven’t won by this margin since defeating the Jaguars 27-17 in Week 10, but I’m going back to here in the rematch with the spread sitting at 8.5 points. This range gives us some key numbers on either side of the spread (7 & 10), which I feel comfortable with.
I don’t see a way that Kansas City loses this game, and I think Jacksonville has too much talent to get blown out by 13-plus points. Trevor Lawrence and co. are playing with house money at this point, and I have faith in him to deliver a backdoor cover if this game gets somewhat out of hand.
Chiefs by 1-6 (+320) also looks attractive and playing both is actually an option in what should be a competitive game, but I’ll take the few extra points of value and hope Kansas City wins by a touchdown.
First Timeout: Jaguars (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
I hit this prop in the Bills-Dolphins game last week, and I’m going with a similar thought process here. Lawrence is making his first career road postseason start in one of the loudest environments in the league.
Communication is going to be a problem, so I’ll take my chances on Jacksonville using a timeout before Kansas City. With both teams being priced evenly, I think there is some hidden value in taking the more inexperienced team away from home.