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Chiefs vs Jaguars Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Sep 15, 2023

The Kansas City Chiefs uncharacteristically lost their first game of the season against the Detroit Lions and will face a tough test on the road at the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2. The Jaguars fended off division rival Indianapolis Colts 31-21 on Sunday.

Let’s dive into the odds and best bets for this AFC showdown between the Chiefs and Jaguars.

Chiefs vs Jaguars Odds

NFL odds used for this Kansas City vs Jacksonville preview were found at Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of Sept. 11 at 2 p.m. EST.

  • Moneyline: Chiefs (-140) • Jaguars (+118)
  • Spread: Chiefs -2.5 (-110) • Jaguars +2.5 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 51 (-110) • Under 51 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Chiefs 26.75, Jaguars 24.25

Chiefs vs Jaguars Predictions

Score Pick: Chiefs 28, Jaguars 24

I’ve got the Chiefs winning this game and covering the 2.5-point spread, contingent on the fact that Travis Kelce plays in this game. When the two teams faced off in the playoffs last year, Kelce led the Chiefs offense with 14 receptions for 98 yards and two touchdowns on a blistering 17 targets.

If Kadarius Toney had been able to hang on to a couple of passes last week, the Chiefs might be 1-0 and a larger favorite heading into this weekend. The Chiefs’ defensive line did struggle a bit against the run without star DT Chris Jones and this could be a problem against Travis Etienne and the Jaguars rushing attack.

The Jaguars had 105 yards rushing on 35 carries against the Colts as the game script benefitted the rushing game. Calvin Ridley looked like he didn’t miss a step in his year-long absence due to suspension as he tallied 101 yards on eight receptions with a touchdown. The Chiefs secondary did not have to deal with Ridley last season so this could give the Jaguars an edge.

At the end of the day, I think this will be a close contest, but the reigning Super Bowl champs get it done behind Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense.

Chiefs vs Jaguars Best Bets & Props

Chiefs -2.5 (-110)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

This is a perfect buy-low spot on the Chiefs. It’s tough to judge Kansas City on their season opener, especially without Kelce. Their offense was extremely one-dimensional with Mahomes as their leading rusher and their RBs combining for only 45 yards rushing on 14 carries. This made it easy for the Lion’s defense to key in on the pass and force Mahomes out of his comfort zone. If Kelce returns, then this offense completely changes and the Chiefs will find their groove.

Back the defending Super Bowl champs to cover the 2.5-point spread at Jacksonville. This is my NFL bet of the day.

Over 51 (-110)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

The last time these two teams faced off, the total ended at 47 with the Chiefs winning by seven points. The Jaguars offense is improved with the addition of Ridley and the Chiefs can get into a shootout against anyone with Mahomes under center.

The Chiefs and Lions game went under in the season opener but the Jaguars and Colts played one of the higher-scoring games on Sunday totaling 52 points. Unders went 12-4 in the NFL in Week 1 and a lot of that could be due to rust as a lot of star players did not feature in the preseason.

Back the two offenses to have a great day and the total to go over 51 points in this contest.

Chiefs vs Jaguars Same Game Parlay

Chiefs vs Jaguars SGP (+280)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: .5 unit

  • Alternate: Over 46.5 (-190)
  • Chiefs 1H -0.5 (-130)
  • 1Q Total: Over 9.5 (-145)

I like this to be a high-scoring game so I like taking an alternate total points line. 47 points would be the same total the two teams played to last year in the playoffs. The Chiefs will be looking to get off to a hot start after their disappointing loss last week, so I like them to be in the lead at halftime.

There were only seven points in the first quarter of the Chiefs game last Thursday as well as the Jaguars game on Sunday. With two prolific offenses facing off, I like the first-quarter total to be at least 10.

Author

Ani Sridhar

Ani Sridhar is an NBA and soccer betting analyst at The Gameday as well as a producer at SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Residing in NY, but originally from Washington D.C and a University of Maryland alum, Ani is a long-time (and occasionally suffering) fan of all the Washington sports teams. He loves TV and movies, so just holler if you ever need someone to join your bar trivia team.

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