Jaguars vs Chiefs Predictions & Odds

Last Updated: Jan 21, 2023

After orchestrating one of the largest postseason comebacks in NFL history, the Jacksonville Jaguars will try to create some more playoff magic when they visit the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round on Saturday, Jan. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET.

Jacksonville’s remarkable 31-30 victory over the Chargers in the wild-card round was truly a tale of two halves. The Jaguars overcame five first-half turnovers and an early 27-0 deficit to stun Los Angeles as Trevor Lawrence rebounded with four touchdown passes after throwing four interceptions.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs had the luxury of a first-round bye, allowing Andy Reid additional prep time for his team’s second meeting with Jacksonville this season. Kansas City rolled out to a 20-point, first-half lead in that Week 10 contest and ultimately held on for a 27-17 victory.

Let’s dig into the latest NFL odds and pick out our Jacksonville vs Kansas City best bets for the first game of divisional-round weekend.

Jaguars vs Chiefs Odds

As of Tuesday afternoon, the Chiefs are 8.5-point home favorites at Caesars Sportsbook for this divisional-round matchup, which makes a lot of sense since they defeated the Jags by 10 earlier this season.

The Over/Under is currently sitting 53 points, which is the highest total on this four-game slate. That number also seems just about on the mark as Kansas City averaged a league-high 29.2 points per game during the regular season and Jacksonville finished in the top 10 at 23.8 ppg.

Take a look at the best Jaguars odds and Chiefs odds for the 2022 NFL season.

Jaguars vs Chiefs Implied Totals

Chiefs 30.75, Jaguars 22.25

Oddsmakers are implying that the Chiefs will win this game relatively comfortably, with both offenses essentially reaching their typical output for the season.

Jaguars vs Chiefs Pick of the Day

Read more on this Jaguars vs Chiefs bet below.

Jaguars vs Chiefs Prediction

Chiefs 31, Jaguars 24

I would be surprised if the Jaguars were able to spring the outright upset, but I do think they’ll keep this game competitive now that this young team has gotten out some of its initial postseason jitters.

The issue for Jacksonville in this matchup is its pass defense, which graded out in the bottom three league-wide during the regular season. That isn’t a good sign when you’re facing Patrick Mahomes, who torched the Jags to the tune of 331 passing yards and four touchdowns in the first meeting.

Jacksonville had a tough time keeping tabs on Chargers tight end Gerald Everett (6-109-1) on Saturday night, which makes me feel pretty confident that Travis Kelce will have plenty of success over the middle, as well.

Find more Jaguars vs Chiefs betting plays

If that proves to be the case, Lawrence and the Jags’ offense will have to keep up. That unit should be able to have success against a Kansas City defense that ranked 20th in pass defense DVOA and 15th in rush defense DVOA during the regular season.

However, in the end, I’m rolling with the experience of Mahomes and Reid to rule the day on their home turf.

Jaguars vs Chiefs Bet Tips

Here are a few Jaguars vs Chiefs betting trends to consider before making your bets:

  • Jacksonville finished the regular season 8-9 against the spread, while Kansas City posted a 6-10-1 ATS record.
  • Unders went 9-8 in Jaguars’ games and Chiefs’ games during the regular season.
  • Jacksonville went 6-2 ATS as the road underdog this season.
  • Underdogs were 2-4 straight up and 4-2 ATS on Wild Card Weekend.

Jaguars vs Chiefs Best Bets

Over 53 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

The first meeting between these two teams would have been higher scoring if not for miscues on both sides. The Chiefs fumbled inside the 10-yard line on their opening possession and Jaguars kicker Riley Patterson missed a pair of field-goal attempts in the first half.

If that turns into a KC touchdown and two made field goals, that game would have hit 40 total points by halftime. I think there’s certainly some value in splitting your bet between this and the first-half Over (26.5) as these two offenses ranked in the top 10 in first-half seconds per play during the regular season.

Given Jacksonville’s strength against the run, Mahomes should be looking to air it out early and often. If the Chiefs get out to an early lead, as I expect they will, we should get a back-and-forth game between two talented quarterbacks who have plenty of weapons to work with.

Soon you will be able to bet on the Jaguars with these Florida sportsbooks.

First Half: Chiefs -5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Instead of laying the points with the Chiefs over the full game and risking the Jaguars securing a backdoor cover, I like the idea of taking the home team to hop out to an early advantage.

Slow starts have been an issue for Jacksonville throughout the campaign as it allowed the sixth-most points in the first half of games this season (12.8 per game). On the other side, Kansas City is traditionally a fast starter, ranking third in first-half scoring (15.6 per game).

With the crowd at Arrowhead Stadium fired up for Kansas City’s first and possibly only home playoff game, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Chiefs start fast out of the gate and take a sizable lead into the break as they did in the first meeting with the Jaguars.

Want to bet on the Chiefs? Check out the best Kansas sportsbooks!


John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

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